New Orleans is all but guaranteed to do this
Late last week, we broke down how the NBA’s Play-In Tournament could impact the Bucks’ 2024 first-round draft pick vis-á-vis the Pelicans’ outcome on Friday night. Since New Orleans won and thus made the NBA Playoffs, they avoided the lottery and moved into a tie for the sixth-best record in the league with the Suns and Bucks. That means a random tiebreaker would be necessary to determine the order of picks 21–23 for this June’s NBA Draft, and it was completed Monday night along with all the others needed (another will also affect the Bucks, more on that later): the Bucks got 21, the Suns got 22, and the Pelicans got 23.
However, there seems to be no chance that Milwaukee will actually select there, because they traded swap rights to their 2024 first-round pick way back in 2020 to New Orleans as part of the Jrue Holiday trade. It counts as a mild surprise that the Bucks found themselves tied with the Pelicans in the standings this year; not because the Pellies are ahead of schedule or surprise contenders, more because the Bucks underachieved record-wise in the regular season. The risk of one or more of these swaps conveying seemed less likely in previous years, with Milwaukee topping 50 wins in every 82-game season since 2019. But all the tumult this year did provide one other disappointing result, albeit minor.
The Pelicans reportedly plan not to acquire the Lakers’ pick at seventeen as they have the right to do, instead deferring the option to take the Lakers’ pick in 2025. That makes them likely to swap with the Bucks, which they only can this year. New Orleans has until June 1st to make that official, but intel suggests New Orleans would rather have the opportunity to move up next year rather than this year, which is considered a weaker draft class. The Bucks swap is entirely separate from the Lakers situation, so if the Pelicans reversed course in the latter, they’d end up with the seventeenth pick and retain the option to swap from 23 to 21. Essentially, the decision is if they want seventeen and 21 or just want 21.
A glass-half-full view of this situation is that the difference between the 21st and 23rd picks in any given draft isn’t really a big deal. Typically, picks in the early 20s aren’t difference-makers right away, if ever. Last year, 21–23 went Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead (both to Brooklyn), and Kris Murray (Portland)—none of them are quality NBA players at this point. 2021 saw three unimpressive prospects in that range: Keon Johnson, Isaiah Jackson, and Usman Garuba.
That’s not always the case, though. In 2022, however, it went Christian Braun, Walker Kessler, and David Roddy. The former two made big impacts as rookies and are important parts of their teams’ futures. In 2020, All-Star Tyrese Maxey went 21st followed by Zeke Nnaji and Leandro Bolmaro. 2019 saw two solid role players (Brandon Clarke, Grant Williams) then a dud (Darius Bazely). But in 2017, the latter picks worked out better, with Terrance Ferguson—who has been out of the league for years—going at 21 followed by 2023 All-Star Jarrett Allen and 2023 All-Defensive second-teamer OG Anunoby.
Going back through the last ten drafts, it’s not uncommon to see 21st and 22nd picks who didn’t pan out. Of course, fewer 23rd picks panned out too, but this ultimately might not end up being that big a deal. We likely won’t know for a few more seasons anyway whether whoever the Bucks get at 23 was the superior choice to who the Suns and Pelicans get with the picks before. So even though this probably will end up as a small disappointment for Milwaukee should New Orleans swap, it’s far from a disaster at this point. Besides, looking at moving back two spots in a draft because of a trade that bad a big impact in winning one title is the lens you like through for this whole situation.
Of course, it’s good that the Bucks even will make a first-round pick. And because of the NBA’s Stepien rule, they must make a selection there on draft night and cannot trade the player they choose until after the draft. They’ve had just two since 2018 due to the aforementioned trade, and they don’t control any until the 2031 Draft: the picks are care of New Orleans and Portland in odd-numbered years, while in the even-numbered years, those two teams can again swap with Milwaukee. The onus on the Bucks remains to keep winning as long as their draft choices can or will go elsewhere, lest they finish with a significantly worse record than either the Pelicans or Blazers, then either see their pick fall back far in the draft or give one of those franchises a high pick in addition to their own.
Also occurring last night were tiebreakers for lottery combinations, and one of those tangentially involves the Bucks too because they control the Blazers’ second-round pick this year. Portland and Charlotte finished tied for the third-worst record in the NBA, so they needed a random tiebreaker to determine which of those two has marginally better lottery odds than the other (it’s literally one more combination of balls out of 1,000 than the other). The Hornets won that one, but the lottery order will not be set until the drawing on May 12th.
Since both teams tied and the second-round is simply in reverse order of league standings, the team who chose earlier in the first round will then choose later in the second round. So if Charlotte ends up with a higher first-round pick than Portland from the lottery, then Charlotte’s second-round pick will be 34th overall. The Blazers’ spot will then be 33rd, so that’s where the Bucks will select in the second round (should they not trade the pick, which they can do at any time before the draft). If Portland ends up with a higher lottery choice, however, then Charlotte will draft at 33rd and Milwaukee drafts at 34th.
We’ll have an update on what happens after the lottery next month, but for now, you can count on the Bucks drafting at 23rd and then potentially another pick ten to eleven spots later.