The Green Bay Packers sit atop the NFC North odds boards as we inch deeper into summer. Currently, they’re twelve to one to win the Super Bowl in 2023.
As the NFL season progresses, sports betting odds change to reflect the latest developments. Here we will look at some of the reasons why bookmakers adjust their odds and how they impact your chances of winning your bets.
1. How bookmakers set odds.
2. The impact of injuries on betting lines
3. The role weather plays in line movement
How Bookmakers Set Odds
Bookmakers set NFL odds by analyzing various factors, including the teams’ current form, player injuries, specific matchups, and home-field advantage.
They also consider public opinion and how much money they have taken in on each side of the bet. The goal is to set the line so that they will attract equal action on both sides of the bet, ensuring that they make a profit no matter who wins.
For example, let’s pretend the Green Bay Packers are playing the Detroit Lions. The Packers are 6-0, and the Lions are 0-6. The bookmakers know that most bettors are going to back the Packers, so they set the line at -300 (meaning you’d have to bet $300 to win $100).
This might seem like a lot, but it’s actually not that bad when you consider how much better the Packers are playing—hypothetically.
Let’s say that the Lions have turned things around later in the season. They’re now 6-6 while the Packers have fallen to 6-4, losing three straight games—also losing that game in Detroit, where they were heavy road favorites.
Now, in our imaginary scenario, the Packers are at home, but the bookmakers know that the public will be less likely to back the Packers blindly. So they’ll adjust the line to something like -150 to account for home-field advantage. This means that the Packers are still favored to win, but not by as much as they were earlier in the season.
This is why you see seasonal odds shift drastically throughout the year. The Packers are at +1200 to win the super bowl heading into the season. This means that for every 100 dollars you lay on the line, you would win 1200 dollars if they won the Big Game. If they play well, we could see those odds get much shorter. If they struggle, the odds will get longer.
The bottom line is that bookmakers are constantly adjusting odds based on a variety of factors, and it’s essential to stay up-to-date on the latest line movements if you want to be successful at sports betting.
How Injuries Impact the Odds
Injuries are a part of every sport, and the National Football League is obviously no exception.
Every year, players are sidelined by injuries, which can significantly impact the odds for upcoming games. Let’s take a look at some of the ways injuries can affect NFL betting odds.
If a key player on a team is injured, the bookmakers will adjust the line to account for the loss. For example, suppose Aaron Rodgers goes down with an injury. In that case, the bookmakers will adjust the line to account for his absence. The same is true for any other key player on a team, such as a star wide receiver or a dominant defensive player.
A great example of this was a few years ago when Rogers went down early in the season on the Green Bay Packers Super Bowl odds plummeted from favorites on the odds boards to way, way, to back of the line.
How Weather Impacts the Odds
Finally, weather can also play a role in line movement. If a team is playing in cold weather and their opponent is not a cold-weather team, the public may bet heavily on the cold-weather team, causing the line to move in their favor.
This is why the Packers tend to be favored at Lambeau Field during the dead of winter against southern teams. But something else to consider is betting the total. When two passing teams meet in a rainy, sloppy mud-fest, the total lines (OVER/UNDER) will tend to shift to a lower number because you can expect more dropped passes and reduced down-field visibility, leading to fewer touchdowns scored.
The public tends to ride the OVER, artificially pushing the betting line up. So, ff you are paying close attention to long-term forecasts, you might find opportunities to bet the under before everyone else realizes that the field conditions may not be that great,
All of these factors can cause the odds to fluctuate during the season. However, there are ways to take advantage of these fluctuations:
● Pay attention to trades and injuries: If a key player on a team gets injured, their odds will usually drop.
● Look for mismatches: If a team with a great passing game is playing an opponent with a weak secondary due to trades or injuries, their odds will likely increase. This presents an opportunity if you can get your bets placed right as the news breaks and before the lines shift. Other mismatches may come as a result of the weather or injuries. For example, a run-heavy team that isn’t expected to outscore a fast-paced power-passing team could win outright in rainy, muddy conditions.
● Pay attention to the public: If the public is betting heavily on one team, the bookmaker will adjust the line to try and balance the action. This presents an opportunity to bet against the public and take advantage of the line movement; in this case, it’s known as artificial inflation.
The bottom line is that books are always trying to minimize their potential for loss and make as much money as possible. So, everything from momentum to injuries and trade to the league landscape—who’s left in the running for the playoffs or how the playoff bracket matchups ended up—will impact not only individual game odds but the Packers’ futures odds as well.