| DEFENSIVE BACKS | |||
| Returning | Probably | IFFY | Gone |
| Alexander, Stokes, Jean-Charles |
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| Ento. Kiondre Thomas | King | Yiadom | |
| Savage, Black, Gaines, Scott | Amos | ||
| Shawn Davis | |||
CORNERBACKS:
Alexander is almost certain to receive an extension that provides the Packers with salary cap relief of between $6M and $9M or so. Stokes, Jean-Charles, Ento and Thomas are all on cheap, rookie contracts. Those five should make the 90-man roster. What is the market for Rasul Douglas? Spotrac listed his value at $9.2M AAV and OTC indicated that the value of his play for 2021 was over $11M. The Packers could stretch for him if his value is reasonable, perhaps $8M AAV.
Chandon Sullivan has gotten worse every year but he was good enough to play 827 snaps for the Packers in 2021. He was below average. OTC listed his value in 2021 at $6.67M. I have a hard time believing someone will cough up that much for Sullivan. I would be interested at $2M to $4M. Kevin King played 303 snaps, earning an above-average 70.6 PFF grade. OTC suggests that his value in 2021 was just $706K, about the rookie minimum, but they are taking into account his missed playing time.
King and Sullivan both have dead money. King has $3.0M in dead money that will count against the cap if he is released or if his contract is allowed to expire. The Packers could actually agree to pay King $2.25M for 2022 and still obtain cap relief. Going all out, pay King $1.035M in base salary (the minimum for him) and the difference ($1.215M) as a signing bonus prorated over 5 years. His new cap number would be $2.028M, a savings of $972K for 2022. Ken Ingalls presented this idea (though I cannot tell if he was being sarcastic) in a recent tweet, though he used different numbers to obtain $1.2M in cap relief.
True, this would mean that the Packers would have to take a $3.22M dead money hit for King in 2023, but the Packers get a guy who can play snaps in the NFL while saving almost $1M (which, sadly, will not be an insignificant amount when the crunch comes to meet the cap limit). The same principle could be applied to Sullivan, but his dead money hit for 2022 is only $970K. Isaac Yiadom is competent on special teams. He is a UFA who has a high minimum base salary ($1.035M), so it depends on how new Special Teams Coordinator Bisaccia views him, whether there are cheaper alternatives, and if there is a new emphasis on special teams.
Needs: The Packers usually keep five or six cornerbacks. They need a starting slot corner back, depth at boundary corner (which probably will be ably manned by Alexander and Stokes) and depth in the slot. The Packers seemed to like Kabion Ento during the last two preseasons but he has yet to play a single snap in an NFL game.
SAFETIES:
Savage is still on his rookie deal. The Packers have to decide by May whether to exercise his 5th year option for 2023, currently estimated by overthecap at $7.9M. Savage has not made this a slam dunk though I think the Packers exercise it. A $7.9M AAV makes him the 20th highest-paid safety, but looking at Overthecap there are a slew of safeties with expiring contracts in 2022 and 2023, so Savage would slide down to perhaps 30th in 2023. The Packers could restructure Savage to save about $1M on the 2022 cap.
Amos is likely to return. He is such a professional. A simple restructure should provide between $3M and $5M in cap relief. Amos is 29, so during the new years on a 4-year extension he would be 30 to 33. OTC listed his 2021 value at just $6.2M, but that seems shockingly low to me. I would place his value at $11M to $14M AAV. However, at that number, an extension would likely provide less than $2.5M in 2022 cap relief, less than a simple restructure.
Needs: The Packers need a third safety for their 3-safety package plus depth. They have no proven players after Amos and Savage. Black has played poorly but he is still an ERFA, so he is inexpensive. Vernon Scott was only active twice last season and on those occasions played only special teams snaps. Shawn Davis and Innis Gaines have no NFL regular season defensive snaps. This position appears to be devoid of any proven depth.
| LINEBACKERS | |||
| Returning | Probably | Iffy | Gone |
| Gary, Garvin, Gileai | P. Smith | Burks, Summers |
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| Hamilton | Mercilus | Ramsey, Rivers | |
| Barnes, Wilborn, McDuffie |
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| Clark, Slaton, Heflin | Lowry |
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| Lancaster |
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OLB: Rashan Gary will return in 2022. The Packers undoubtedly will exercise his fifth-year option which is estimated to be worth $10.55M in 2023. The Packers could gain $1.3M of cap relief for 2022 with a simple restructure. Extending Gary is unlikely as it provides no additional immediate cap relief.
Gary needs a bookend pass rusher. It could be Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith, or perhaps Whitney Mercilus might suffice. Neither of the Smiths have void years on their current contracts, so they would have to agree to alter their contracts to effect 2022 cap relief. Mercilus is a UFA, so he would have to agree to terms and given his injury, he should be more affordable.
Za’Darius and Preston Smith will be 30 in 2022, so both would be 31 to 34 years old during a four-year extension. A release of Za’Darius provides $15.28M in cap relief, and an extension could provide $12.45M in cap relief if he would accept an option bonus in 2023 in lieu of a signing bonus in 2022. Preston’s release would yield $12.47M in cap relief; I have previously outlined how to obtain $6M to $9M in 2022 cap relief on an extension. Should the Packers ask Za’Darius for a massive pay cut for 2022? Zach Kruse thinks he will be coveted by other teams despite his back injury. If the Pack wants him back, what is his market for a four-year extension? Back surgeries scare me, and I do not have the medical information necessary to form a solid judgment. What is the market for Preston Smith for that matter? $15M AAV? OTC estimated the value of his play at $11.2M, but their estimates are generally low. OTC thought Gary’s play was worth $15.7M in 2021 but he probably would not sign for that.
Preston Smith will not want anything less than a lucrative, four-year extension. Since he has no void years on his current deal, the Packers cannot auto-convert base and roster bonuses into a signing bonus. He would have to agree to void years, and that is unlikely. Preston Smith just had his best season. Better to negotiate for an extension at age 29 rather than next year at age 30, and there is the possibility of injury or just lesser quality play if he gives the Packers a one-year deal. This largely applies to ZaDarius, unless other teams are leary of his back injury, which seems quite possible absent more medical information. The Packers need to get perhaps $23M in cap relief between the Smiths one way or another. That could be one extension and one release, two extensions, or two releases, which would yield almost $28M. Whitney Mercilus will be a free agent. OTC listed the value of his play at $1.07M. At that cost, sign me up but he should get something more than that if healthy. He will be 32 in 2022. My draftnik friends tell me that the edge class in this year’s draft is deep.
ILB: Khrys Barnes is an ERFA, so he will return. OTC listed his value at $1.59M, but they take into consideration playing time (48% of possible snaps). He did have a couple of good games, but he should not be out there 48% of the time. Ray Wilborn has yet to play an NFL snap. Isaiah McDuffie will return. He isn’t a bad prospect but so far he has played only on special teams. The Packers did not sign Kalembayi to a futures deal. Oren Burks and Ty Summers are getting pricey at about $1M each. Like with Yiadom, it depends on how they are viewed by the new staff and if there will be an emphasis on personnel for STs.
De’Vondre Campbell was a difference-maker. At age 29, he is a free agent. OTC listed the value of his 2021 play at $15.1M. Spotrac lists his market value at just $6.2M because they factor in his play for both 2020 and 2021. Campbell always had good physcial tools. I think Campbell will get an offer he cannot refuse elsewhere, but the Packers should offer $9M AAV with a first year cap hit of $4.5M in 2022. Just find that kind of money. Otherwise, ILB is devoid of proven players.
Defensive Line:
Clark will return. The Pack could get $11.85M in cap relief with an all-out restructure with added void years and almost $10M without adding void years. He will be 27 in 2022. The Packers will probably alter his contract to get $4M to $10M. Slaton and Heflin will be back on cheap deals. Heflin signed a futures contract.
Releasing Lowry would net about $4M in cap space. He already has void years so a simple restructure would yield $2.96M in cap relief. OTC listed the value of his 2021 play at $8.05M. I cannot say I am interested in extending Lowry to the tune of four years and $32M (but then, I wanted to release him last March and he went out and had his best season since his last extension in 2018). Yet, he did have 5 sacks, 9 QB hits, and Pro Football Reference credits Lowry with 16 pressures. Clark only had 13 QB hits with 28 pressures, per PFR. Pro Football Focus gave Lowry a slightly above-average grade of 66.7. Sigh: the numbers suggest $8M AAV for Lowry is not actually outlandish, but one would think the Packers could find a better player for $8M. An extension at 4/$32M might garner just under $3M in cap relief, or more if they choose an unusual structure. I would lean (I’d be almost touching the ground) towards a restructure versus an extension.
Tyler Lancaster did not have a good year. He is unrestricted. The Packers could bring him back for something just over the minimum or thereabouts. He will be 28. The Packers did not sign Abdullah Anderson to a futures contract, which surprised me. I thought he was okay. Since the Packers released Keke, I take that as a sign he is not returning, but that whole situation is murky. OTC listed his value at $2.57M. He was better in 2020 and he has a history of concussions.
To recap, the Packers might find $6M to $9M from Alexander, $3M to $5M from Amos, $978K from King, $1M from Gary, $23M one way or another from Preston and Za’Darius Smith (and up to $27.75M if the Packers can’t reach deals with both of them), $4M to $10M from Clark, and $3M from Lowry for a total of between $40.978M and $66.729M, but that high end number would be extreme. Heck, even the lower number is not a thing of beauty. I would love to have Campbell back at a cost of $4.5M in 2022 ($9M AAV), Douglas at $3.5M ($7M AAV?), Mercilus at $2M for one year. Sullivan’s return at under $2.5M would be acceptable. If King plays elsewhere, that is a $3.978M swing in my calculations.
The bones of a good defense might still be in place. Alexander, Stokes, Amos and Savage should constitute a good secondary if they can find a starting slot CB and a decent dimebacker. Gary and Preston Smith would be adequare if thin at OLB. ILB will be much worse if Campbell walks. The defensive line likely will be the same sans Keke and Anderson. The Packers will add players in the draft (they have comp picks in the 4th and 7th rounds).
The Packers by rule must generate almost $51M in cap space by March 16. Really, $61M when the PS, draft picks, and 52nd/53rd players are added plus a cushion for the season. $75M if the Packers want to extend Davante Adams, or $81M to franchise him (and probably trade him). More than $81M if the Packers want to re-sign some of their free agents or sign outside free agents. If Rodgers is extended, the Packers will get a contract with cap relief in place prior to March 16. If he is traded and the Packers do not get the cap relief until after the new league year starts, the Packers can reach agreements with their own UFAs now on a handshake deal pending a trade of Rodgers. NFL teams never rengege on handshake deals, but some caution would be in order here.
We still need to look to the offensive side of the ball. There are a lot of moving parts involved to this issue, so the key will be mixing and matching to reach the best result.