What to Expect from Preston Smith? The Answer Lies in the Middle

There were a few things from this Green Bay Packers offseason that I’m assuming caught most of us by surprise—the re-signings of Kevin King and Aaron Jones, this whole Aaron Rodgers’ saga, to name a few. But I’m also going to guess that up there with those aforementioned items was that the team didn’t move on from Preston Smith.

As we all remember, Smith was coming off a very down 2020 season in which his sack total fell from 15 in 2019 to just five this past year, according to PFF, as did his pressure total, which plummeted from 62 to 29.

Not to mention that from a pass-rushing efficiency standpoint, Smith ranked 108th out of 121 eligible edge rushers by PFF’s pass-rush productivity metric. He would also struggle against the run.

Take that lack of production, couple it with a $16 million cap hit and a team in a serious cap crunch due to the salary cap falling from $198.2 million to $182.5 million, and naturally, we thought that the Packers would cut Smith in favor of the $8 million in cap savings.

Instead, the two parties came to an agreement on a pay cut that still saved Green Bay nearly $8 million in cap space but allows Smith to earn some of it back in the form of bonuses if he hits certain performance thresholds.

So with Smith back in the fold for the 2021 season, what can we expect from him production-wise? As is often the case, the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle.

Looking back at the 2020 season, it was unfair to think that Smith was going to replicate his 2019 performance—that was a career year for him, after all. Smith’s 15 sacks, 62 pressures, 92 total tackles, and 29 stops — or plays that result in a loss for the offense, per PFF — were all career highs.

So once again, it would be foolish to assume or hope that Smith will regain that 2019 form here in 2021. Maybe, but not likely.

On the flip side, I do expect Smith to outperform his 2020 season. His 71 total tackles were the fewest since 2016, when Smith played roughly 130 fewer snaps than what he did in 2020. And the same goes for the number of sacks he recorded, while his 29 pressures were the lowest season total of his career.

It’s also important to note that Smith appears to be in much better shape this year. During OTAs, OLB coach Mike Smith mentioned that Smith “does look a lot leaner than he did coming into last training camp.” This was likely a big contributor to his down season, and the simple fact that he’s just in better shape will hopefully boost his pass-rushing numbers.

So as we all wonder what the 2021 season will look like for Preston Smith, it probably won’t consist of 62 pressures and 15 sacks, but it will also probably be better than what we saw from him in 2020.

How do eight sacks and 45 pressures sound? That production paired with Za’Darius Smith and the ascending Rashan Gary will form quite the formidable edge-rushing trio for opposing offensive lines to contend with. And when it comes to defensive success, getting pressure on the quarterback is the name of the game.