Both will probably be signed to deals in the ballpark of $15 million per year, based on the current market
On Monday, Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst dropped a bombshell: The team is planning on keeping linebacker Quay Walker and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, the team’s 2021 first-round picks, through at least the 2026 season — be it by picking up their fifth-year options or via an extension. If you’re wondering how fast the Packers will have to move on these deals, the deadline to accept these options is on May 1st, a week after the draft kicks off.
So, conversations will need to be quick if Gutekunst wants to avoid picking up these one-year deals.
At the moment, the option numbers for these players are $14.8 million for Walker and $13.9 million for Wyatt, according to Over the Cap. As a reminder, these figures would be fully guaranteed. For perspective, Packers cornerback Nate Hobbs, who signed a four-year, $48 million deal this offseason as a free agent, only received $16 million guaranteed — all in the form of a signing bonus — on his new contract. The guaranteed money, along with rising player compensation markets, highly incentivizes Green Bay to push for long-term extensions, if their fallback plan is picking up the option.
So what would long-term deals for Walker and Wyatt look like? I’m glad you asked. Let’s get into it.
The NFL Market
One thing that is happening around the NFL right now is that non-Pro Bowl starters are seeing the vast majority of the pay compensation increases from the $20-$25 million year-to-year increase in the salary cap. Because teams can afford to pay their stars, their stars are getting paid without issue, leading to few hitting free agency and resetting the market at typical rates.
So fewer stars are on the market…despite teams having this cap space on hand. That has lead to the rapid increase in mid-level starters, particularly ones coming off of rookie deals.
Keisean Nixon is a great example of this. When Nixon signed his extension with the Packers, which was primarily priced as him being a high-end slot cornerback, he inked a $6 million per-year deal in 2024.
Now, slot cornerbacks are regularly going for $10 million to $13 million. Yes, the market has doubled. So, while the projections that Walker and Wyatt would receive would have been almost unfathomable for non-Pro Bowl players a few years ago, this is simply where the NFL finds itself. Again, remember, the Packers’ baseline thinking is that they would keep Walker and Wyatt on one-year deals at the cost of $14.8 million and $13.9 million, respectively. Please try to keep your jaw off of the floor.
Quay Walker Extension
Two players who are comparable to Walker in talent level and are relevant to the modern off-ball linebacker market are Nick Bolton, who re-signed with the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason, and Jamien Sherwood, who re-signed with the New York Jets this offseason. The 25-year-olds signed three-year, $15 million per year ($45 million total) contracts, despite neither having made a Pro Bowl in their careers. For added context, Sherwood wasn’t even a full-time starter until his last year with the Jets.
So, what is Walker going to get? My guess is something like a four-year, $60 million contract that will pay him $15 million per year. The Packers usually like four-year contracts, which makes them very unique in the modern NFL. Functionally, because Green Bay only affords guarantees in the form of signing bonuses rather than guaranteed salary, they serve as two-year deals with two team options.
Devonte Wyatt Extension
Like Devonte Wyatt, Tershawn Wharton began his NFL career as a situational pass-rusher rather than a full-time every-down defensive tackle. Over his first four seasons, Wharton only started three games. In those years, he never played more than 48 percent of the defensive snaps in games (over a season) that he was actually active for (he missed 12 games in 2022 due to injury).
Despite that, he developed into a part-time starter in Year 5 of his NFL career and registered 10 starts over 17 games with the Kansas City Chiefs. This offseason, he signed a three-year, $45.05 million contract ($15.01 million per year) with the Carolina Panthers.
So like Walker, Wyatt’s market is probably in the $15 million per year range, just over the fifth-year option cost.
Question whether or not either player is worth $15 million per year, but understand that there are going to be few free-agent options available in the NFL in this era. This shouldn’t change much until 2029, when the NFL is expected to opt out of their 2030 television network option and begin work toward finding an even more lucrative broadcast deal — likely with streaming services. At that point, a nuclear bomb will hit the NFL’s salary cap situation, changing the prices that players will ask for across the board. Until then, we’re operating with $20-$25 million increases.
In that context, the fifth-year option prices that are on the table for the Packers for Walker and Wyatt are right around the projected ranges for long-term extensions with those players. If you can’t believe that they’re worth $15 million per year, it’s worth investing some time into what the league’s deals are looking like right now.
The question isn’t if Walker and Wyatt will get $15 million per year, just if the Packers are going to be the team to pay them. Based on Gutekunst’s statement yesterday, it sure seems like the team is prepared to go down that road.