Before getting into what the Green Bay Packers need to do to reclaim the top spot in the NFC North, lets take a moment and appreciate what they did on Thanksgiving.
Last season the Packers went just 1-5 against the NFC North. While all of the losses were close, the losses to the Lions really came down to one thing. 4th down. The Packers could not get the Lions off the field on 4th down. On Thursday it was different. The Packers went 3-3 on 4th, with two of those plays being touchdowns. The Lions on the other hand went 0-2 and were never able to take a lead.
The Lions have for the most part bullied the Packers the two seasons prior to this one. It’s too early to tell if things have truly flipped back the other way, but a sweep where you don’t trail to the other team for even a second is a great start.
The Lions have been taken care of. The Vikings are in freefall. That just leaves the Chicago Bears left to contend with. Make no mistake, this will not be an easy game. So what does Green Bay need to do to retake the North?
All Gas, No Brakes
A phrase that has been associated with Matt LaFleur for quite some time, but not one he’s really lived up to. At least until last week. After an extremely conservative game against the Vikings, LaFleur opened up his bag and came at the Lions with everything he had. The biggest thing being what I mentioned above. LaFleur went for it on 4th down on three separate occasions on Thursday, leading to two scores and a game sealing first down pickup.
Where did this level of confidence come from? If I had to guess, it probably started and ended with knowing that this guy was on his team:
Despite a rough start to the game, LaFleur continued to put the ball in Jordan Love’s hands, and was rewarded to the tune of four touchdowns and no turnovers. If not for the fact that Green Bay likes to feed it’s running backs once they get inside the 5 yard line, Love would likely have the kind of TD numbers that have players like Drake Maye and Matt Stafford in the MVP race.
The Bears defense is vulnerable. They gave up 52 points to the Lions, 42 to the Joe Flacco Bengals, and 27 to JJ McCarthy. If they don’t turn the ball over they are a pedestrian defense. The Packers don’t turn the ball over. Keep the ground game efficient and attack them deep with Watson and Wicks and the Packers should light up the scoreboard.
The Packers Defense Needs to Stop the Run
Caleb Williams has improved under year one of Ben Johnsons regime. There’s really nothing to dispute with that. That being said, the Bears offense is succeeding in spite of him as much as it is because of him. Williams has been good at two particular things this season however. Getting explosive plays and escaping would be sacks. So despite the fact that he is not completing even 60 percent of his passes (including an abysmal 47.2 percent against the Eagles) the Bears offense is living off big plays and Williams finding room with his legs.
The Packers defense is amongst the best in the league at preventing explosive plays, and in the top third of the league in sacks. All of this is to say that if the Bears want to beat Green Bay on Sunday, their easiest path is the one taken by a team like Carolina. Run the ball, and keep Green Bay’s offense off the field.
Losing Devonte Wyatt for the season on Thanksgiving is not going to help with that. So it will be up to players like Colby Wooden, Warren Brinson and Nazir Stackhouse to step up and keep Chicago’s running backs in check. Quay Walker coming back could also help. Regardless of who does it, if the Packers can stifle the Bears run game like they did the Lions last week, they should have every opportunity to win this game.
Special Teams, Don’t Make Things Worse
Unlike two weeks ago, the special teams didn’t make any game changing plays. What they did do however is not make things worse. They didn’t give up and big returns, they didn’t commit any big penalties, and they didn’t miss a kick. At this point all I ask for is the same thing. Don’t make any big mistakes, and keep making field goals.
I also wanted to take a moment to shout out Packers punter Daniel Whelan.
In another season where Packers fans have to hold their breath every time a special teams play happens, Whelan has been everything you could want from footballs least interesting position. Which makes the current pro bowl voting a damn shame. Regardless, he’s been a bright spot amongst the mediocrity and the Packers are lucky to have him.
Final Prediction
Divisional games are always tricky. Teams know each other too well and strange things can happen. That being said, Chicago is not the team that their record suggests. With the game being at home, and Green Bay’s defense excelling at what the Bears do best, I anticipate a new leader in the NFC North by the end of Sunday.
Packers 31 – Bears 23
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