Two different teams have held the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years since 2017. Amid a radical rebuild effort, the Browns carried the top pick into the 2017 and ’18 drafts. The Jaguars did the same in 2021 and ’22. It is possible the Bears will follow that up in back-to-back years. The big difference here would be the Bears traded the 2023 top choice and may unload the 2024 top pick for another windfall, depending on their evaluation of Justin Fields.
The Bears and Panthers’ March trade, giving Carolina access to Bryce Young, has become a seminal moment for both teams. As it stands now, Chicago holds two top-five picks. The Panthers are 1-12, giving the Bears a two-game lead on the Patriots and Cardinals for the top slot with four games left. Chicago finishing with the first overall selection, providing access to the quarterback of its choice, would create a big-picture decision for a Bears team that already passed on the 2023 quarterback class to stick with Fields — a QB the Ryan Poles regime did not draft. North Carolina’s Drake Maye has declared for the draft, while USC’s Caleb Williams is widely expected to follow suit.
A new Cardinals regime is also evaluating its QB, though Kyler Murray‘s $46.1MM-per-year contract (which runs through 2028) will be much harder to escape compared to Fields’. This creates an interesting scenario that will have teams who do not land two-two draft slots monitoring how Chicago and Arizona proceed. The Patriots are widely expected to pursue a quarterback in the draft, and they are likely to do so without Bill Belichick.
With gridlock forming in the AFC and NFC wild-card races, considerable movement will take place over the next month. The winner of the NFC South will likely lose several spots in the ’24 draft, as the Buccaneers did this year by winning the ’22 division title at 8-9. Here is how the draft order looks going into Week 15:
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
- New England Patriots: 3-10
- Arizona Cardinals: 3-10
- Washington Commanders: 4-9
- Chicago Bears: 5-8
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5-8
- New York Jets: 5-8
- New York Giants: 5-8
- Tennessee Titans: 5-8
- Los Angeles Chargers: 5-8
- Atlanta Falcons: 6-7
- New Orleans Saints: 6-7
- Seattle Seahawks: 6-7
- Los Angeles Rams: 6-7
- Denver Broncos: 7-6
- Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
- Buffalo Bills: 7-6
- Cincinnati Bengals: 7-6
- Green Bay Packers: 6-7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-7
- Indianapolis Colts: 7-6
- Minnesota Vikings: 7-6
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-6
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Kansas City Chiefs: 8-5
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-5
- Detroit Lions: 9-4
- Philadelphia Eagles: 10-3
- Miami Dolphins: 9-4
- Dallas Cowboys: 10-3
- San Francisco 49ers: 10-3
- Baltimore Ravens: 10-3