It might only be Week 12, but the Packers’ upcoming stretch of games could define the rest of the season. The Packers (6-3-1) are in second place in the division behind the Chicago Bears (7-3). The Detroit Lions (6-4) sit in third place, while the Minnesota Vikings (4-6) occupy last place. Green Bay will face all three teams over the next three weeks, with two of the games being at home.
The Packers have a prime opportunity ahead of them. If they can win their next three games, they will be sitting at nine wins and be in the driver’s seat to win the division. “Obviously, the divisional games are absolutely critical,” Matt LaFleur said on Monday. “And you talk about this three-game stretch, but really, all that matters is this one game for us right now. We just have to focus on what’s right in front of us, and that’s to try to put together the best plan to go out and play a team that I think is an extremely tough football team.
Week 12 vs. Minnesota Vikings
After traveling out to New York on a short week, the Packers return home to host the Vikings at 12:00 at Lambeau Field. It will be the Packers’ second divisional game of the season. The Vikings, coming off back-to-back losses, are struggling. They have a strong, aggressive defense led by Brian Flores, but inconsistency at quarterback has plagued the offense for most of the season. It’ll be important for the Packers to put pressure on J.J. McCarthy and get out to an early lead.
At home, the Vikings’ defense can use the crowd noise to their advantage, but on the road, it’s a much different story. The Vikings are a different defense when playing away from home. They give up more rushing yards and passing yards per attempt on the road than they do at home. They’ve also given up four more touchdowns, 14 more first downs, and 16 more touchdowns on the road. At US Bank Stadium, the Vikings are holding opposing quarterbacks to a 92.0 passer rating, but a 104.9 passer rating on the road. It should be a prime opportunity for Jordan Love and the offense to continue trending in the right direction
The Packers could very possibly be without Josh Jacobs for this matchup. He suffered a knee contusion against the Giants that may linger. If Jacobs is forced to miss time, it’ll be a combination of Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks carrying the load for the Packers’ rushing attack. The Vikings might be the weakest team in the division, but they still have talented playmakers all over the field that will make matters far from easy. That said, the Packers can’t afford to drop a home divisional game against a team in last place.
Week 13 @ Detroit Lions
After facing Minnesota, the Packers will travel to Detroit to face the Lions on Thanksgiving. This marks the 24th time the two teams have played each other on Thanksgiving. The Lions lead the series with a record of 12-9-1. The Packers won the last Thanksgiving matchup 29-22 back in 2023. These two teams have already faced each other once this season, with the Packers winning handily, 27-13.
The Lions might be in third place in the division, but they are still one of the best teams in the NFC. Detroit is even better at home. Luckily for the Packers, Jordan Love has been very good on the road this season, throwing 10 touchdowns to just one interception. The Packers’ defense, on the other hand, hasn’t been quite as good on the road. Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense will likely lean on the run, get the ball out quickly, and try to gain an early lead to neutralize the Packers’ pass rush and keep Jordan Love off the field.
Another downside for Green Bay is that playing on a Thursday is never easy. The Lions will be extra-motivated to even up the season series between the two teams, especially at home in a standalone game. Both teams will be playing on a short week, but the Packers just played New York on short rest last week. Now they’ll have to do it again. On the bright side, an 11:30 kickoff will allow the Packers to be back in Green Bay in time for a Thanksgiving dinner with their friends and family, and they’ll have extra time off before their Week 14 matchup.
Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears
After having a mini-bye week to recover, the Packers will host the Chicago Bears. The Bears already have seven wins this season in Ben Johnson’s first year as head coach, which matches the most wins they’ve had in a season since 2020. The Packers will definitely want revenge after the Bears won at Lambeau Field last season, but that won’t come easily.
It’s hard to gauge who the Bears really are. Caleb Williams has definitely taken a jump in his second year, but he hasn’t been quite as good away from home. The offense is fourth in yards per game (373.8) and eighth in points scored per game (25.8). Chicago’s defense has a turnover differential of +16, which is by far the best in the NFL. The next best team is at +10. They have also given up the sixth most yards per game (364.6) and seventh most points per game 26.4).
This is another game the Packers need to find a way to win. They will have extra time off to recover and game plan for a Bears’ team that still has plenty of question marks. Despite starting strong with a .700 winning percentage, they have a -6 point differential, are 25th in DVOA, and are turning opponents over at an unsustainable rate. That doesn’t mean the Bears are a bad team, but the Packers need to find a way to come away with another divisional victory at home against a fraudulent team.
Divisional Games Are a Must
The goal every week is to go 1-0, but divisional games matter just a smidge more. If the Packers can find a way to win at least two of their next three games, they would be sitting at 8-4-1 or 9-3-1. The Packers will then play three out of their last four games on the road, traveling to Denver, Chicago, and Minnesota. They also face Baltimore over that stretch of games. That’ll be an incredibly difficult stretch of games to finish the season, so getting two wins now is imperative.
None of these games will be a gimme. All three opponents are quality teams that can present a number of challenges for the Packers. The Packers, Bears, and Lions will all be fighting to win the division. Winning the division guarantees a playoff spot and at least one playoff game at home. The Packers went 1-5 in the division last season, and that ended up costing them the division and a home playoff game. They already have one divisional win, but now they need to win several more.
The post The Packers’ Next 3 Games May Define the Rest of the Season first appeared on PackersTalk.com Blog Posts and Podcasts.