The Lass Word: Why the Packers Aren't Playing Sunday

The Super Bowl will be played this weekend and I am still coming to grips with the fact the Packers won’t be in it.  This was supposed to be our year.  Our last dance.  What went wrong?   

I want to stay in denial. Just take the easy way out and blame the heartbreaking loss to the 49ers on special teams.  But having had a few weeks to step back and reflect, we should have seen this coming for several other reasons.  It’s time for a reality check. 

The Packers are not a good cold weather team. 

If the past decade has taught us anything, it’s that the idea of Green Bay having some sort of magical advantage in frigid weather at Lambeau is more myth than reality.  Since winning their last Super Bowl, the Packers are no better than 5-4 at home in the playoffs.  In the last two post seasons, two warm weather teams (Tampa Bay and San Francisco) came to Lambeau in January and beat us.  It is noteworthy that the last time Green Bay did go all the way, the team won four straight post season games, all on the road or at a neutral site.  

Despite being the number one seed, the Packers were not the best team in the NFC. 

Maybe they were at midseason.  Green Bay seemed to peak about week ten with a 17-0 shutout of Seattle.  But it should have been clear by the time the regular season ended that the Packers were not playing their best football.  The defense had begun to spring leaks, the offense was inconsistent, and special teams were their usual disastrous self.   

We should have been tipped off to what was to come in the playoffs when Green Bay’s starters got outplayed in the first half by the lowly Lions in week eighteen.  Granted, the game didn’t mean anything and the play calling was vanilla, but it looked to me like our starters were playing as hard as they could.  Yet they were outperformed by a three win team.  By season’s end, the Niners and Rams had gotten hot and stepped it up a notch.  The Packers were in decline. 

Green Bay’s coaching staff does not adjust well in big games. 

After the Packers took the ball on their first possession against the Niners and drove it easily down the field for a score, the San Francisco coaching staff adjusted beautifully.  They fixed the problem.  Green Bay’s offense was essentially stymied the rest of the game.  Our staff couldn’t seem to counter with anything effective.  Or was it that Aaron Rodgers couldn’t adjust, or execute the adjustments?  

I have noticed this in other games against good opponents.  Against Kansas City, for example, the staff didn’t have any answers to help Jordan Love deal with the constant blitz pressure.   Matt LaFleur is a very good coach, but he’s still learning on the job, and this is an area that must improve. 

Aaron Rodgers can no longer carry the team against quality opponents. 

MVP or not, this is two years in a row that the future Hall of Fame signal caller has failed at the end of a playoff game when his team needed him the most.  On Green Bay’s final possession against the Niners, the Packers had the ball first and ten on their own 29 yard line.  Score tied at 10.  4:36 to play in the game.  Rodgers ran four plays for minus six yards, resulting in a punt.  Say what you will about Jimmy Garoppolo, but he then took the Niners 44 yards on nine plays, a drive that included three first downs.  He burned up the final 3:20 on the clock, and set up the winning field goal on the final play. 

That’s the kind of thing Rodgers used to be able to do.  Remember the fourth down bomb to Randall Cobb against the Bears to send Green Bay to the playoffs in 2013?  Don’t get me wrong.  He is the MVP for a reason.   He’s still capable of outstanding play.  But faced with do or die in a playoff situation, his age is definitely showing.  

The loss of AJ Dillon does not get enough attention. 

The one weapon we had that was truly designed for a frigid weather game was lost early in the second half when running back AJ Dillon fractured ribs on the kickoff coverage team.  Dillon pounding the ball might have been the answer on that final Green Bay possession that went nowhere when Rodgers threw the ball four times in a row. 

Our defense was very good.  The Niners’ defense was better. 

No question our defense played an inspired game and gave up just two field goals.  But it wasn’t good enough.  We needed a critical stop on that last possession and couldn’t get it.  Especially disappointing was third and seven on the Green Bay 38 yard line.  A field goal try from there would have been 56 yards in the freezing cold.  But the defense allowed Deebo Samuel to run nine yards for a first down, making the game winner more of a chip shot.  On the drive before, the Niners defense dominated, forced a three and out, and got the ball back.  They were better when it mattered most. 

So I’ll watch the Super Bowl, disappointed that my team isn’t there.  But knowing, deep down inside, that it’s not merely because of some big special teams blunder.  They simply weren’t good enough this year.