The Lass Word: Why Pack Will Surpass Lions This Year

The Detroit Lions have been anointed by most neutral observers as the team to beat this coming season in the NFC North.  That’s understandable, considering their relatively easy conquering of the division last season, and advancement to the NFC championship game.  The Green Bay Packers, by contrast, were late bloomers who sprang up and beat them on Thanksgiving Day and went on to finish second and win a playoff game. 

Packer fans are enjoying the team’s renaissance this offseason and speculating as to whether they can make a Super Bowl run in 2024.  To do that, they must get past the Lions.  Will they be good enough?  Comparing the two teams at this stage of the year is, of course, highly speculative.  Much of it has to be based on last year’s performance, which may or may not improve in the coming campaign.  But it makes for interesting offseason fodder to put the two teams side by side. 

Looking at 2023, one can make the general assumption, based on stats, that the Lions were better on offense, while the two teams were roughly equal on defense.  Detroit finished fifth in the league in points scored, while the Packers were twelfth.  The Lions also finished higher than the Packers in total offensive yards (3rd vs 11th), passing yards (2nd vs 12th), and rushing yards (5th vs 15th).  Quarterback Jared Goff finished the regular season with more passing yards than Jordan Love and a higher passer rating, although Love had two more touchdown throws. 

Both of the Lions’ running backs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, finished with more rushing yards than Green Bay’s top ball carrier, Aaron Jones.  It should be noted that this was largely due to Jones missing five games.  Detroit had a bona fide star receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who finished third in the league with over 1,500 receiving yards.  The highest ranked Green Bay pass catcher was rookie Jayden Reed, who finished 42nd. 

A mixed bag on defense.  The Packers finished ahead of their Detroit rivals in points allowed (10th vs 23rd), and passing yards allowed (9th vs 27th).  But the Lions had more takeaways (23 vs 18), and, to the surprise of no one, finished better in rush yards allowed (2nd vs 28th). 

But all of that is past history.  Have the Packers done enough in this off season to surpass the Lions and retake the division?  There are some reasons why the answer should be “yes”. 

First, and perhaps most importantly, the Packers have already shown they can beat Detroit head-to-head, even on the road, and in a national television game.  They did it on Thanksgiving Day without their best running back.   In that game, Love demonstrated that, even in his first year as a starter, he is a better overall talent than Goff.  Love outplayed his counterpart, throwing three touchdown passes and finishing with a higher passer rating.  Love also showed his mobility with a critical 37 yard run late in the fourth quarter that basically ended the game.  That is a weapon Goff does not have. 

Love’s performance in that game could be a legitimate reason his agent may be asking for more than the $53 million per year deal that Goff signed this spring. 

The Lions would figure to be at, or near, their ceiling.  It’s hard to picture guys like Goff, Montgomery, Gibbs, St. Brown and Sam LaPorta playing much better than they did in 2023.   Yet they still lost to the Packers.  Meanwhile Green Bay, as the youngest team in the league, is loaded with upside.   The deep young corps of receivers has likely not even come close to reaching its potential.  The same could be said of a developing offensive line.  The defense has added the top free agent safety, plus the top safety available in the draft and the top linebacker in the draft. 

Much has been made of the difficulty of Green Bay’s schedule, but I would make the case that Detroit, playing a first place agenda, has an even tougher slate.  The Lions must play on the road against Dallas, Houston, San Francisco and, of course, Green Bay.  They also face Buffalo and the LA Rams at home.  The Packers get the Texans, Dolphins and 49ers at Lambeau, and they get to play the Eagles on a neutral field in Brazil, which shows every sign of being a pro-Green Bay crowd.  The Packers do have a road game at the LA Rams, but Packer fans are expected to turn out in large numbers for that contest as well. 

The wild card is always injuries.  Particularly, injuries to key players.  You can’t anticipate how injuries will affect the season.  You can only speculate based on the premise of all things being equal.  And on that assumption, I feel good about the Packers recapturing their rightful place atop the division in 2024.