The Lass Word: The Time is Now for this Defense

The Green Bay Packers finished the 2023 season as one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the NFL.  The 9-8 record, and the playoff win over the Cowboys, in spite of being the youngest team in the league, has created Super Bowl expectations among many fans of the green and gold for 2024. 

That offense should be stacked again this fall.  The only significant loss was Aaron Jones at running back, but he has been replaced by Josh Jacobs, one of the top free agents at the position.  The starting right guard, Jon Runyan, has also departed, but he figured to be in a fight to keep his job this year anyway.  With a talented crew of young receivers and tight ends improving, and continued maturity from Jordan Love at quarterback, scoring points should not be an issue.  The Packers are going to have one of the best offenses in the league. 

But is the defense going to be good enough to help the team to a Super Bowl?  Does it even need to be?  We’ve heard forever that “defense wins championships”.  But is that still true?  Or have the modern day rules, most all of which favor the offense, made it possible to simply outscore opponents all the way to a championship game?  Let’s take a look at recent Super Bowl history to find out. 

For all the hype and acclaim given to Patrick Mahomes, the fact is the Kansas City Chiefs went all the way last season with a dominant defense.  The Chiefs ranked no better than fifteenth in offensive points scored during the regular season last year.  However, they did rank second in fewest points allowed.  You could well point to that and exclaim “See?  Defense does still win championships”. 

However, it’s interesting to note that, prior to last year, from 2017 to 2022, the Super Bowl champion ranked higher on offense than they did on defense.  In fact, six of the last eight champions had an offense that ranked in the top five in points scored, and of the two that did not, one ranked seventh. 

Which is not necessarily to say those teams were bad on the defensive side of the ball.  Nine of the last eleven title holders ranked in the top ten in defensive points allowed.   

So what do these rankings suggest?  Well, here’s a shock (not).  Turns out the great majority of Super Bowl winners are at least top ten, if not top five, in BOTH offense and defense.  This has been true in seven out of the last eleven years. 

Green Bay’s offense is definitely on its way there.  The question mark is on defense.  Can Jeff Hafley do what Dom Capers, Mike Pettine and Joe Barry couldn’t?  Can he get the defense to play consistently well?  Can he break the chain of mediocrity that has become a troubling tradition on that side of the ball?  Does he even have the players who are good enough to do it? 

Hafley is certainly fighting history.  In the thirteen seasons since Green Bay last won a Super Bowl the defense has finished in the top ten in points allowed only twice, and never higher than ninth.  In 2010, when the Packers last hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, they finished second.   

There is reason to be encouraged.  The unit may be closer than you think.  It may surprise you to learn that Green Bay’s defense actually ranked higher than its offense in terms of points in 2023.  The defense was tenth in points allowed, while the offense stood twelfth in points scored.  Hafley brings a change in philosophy, with a switch to a 4-3 base, which may suit the team’s personnel better.  There is highly drafted talent across the board, at all three levels, including incoming rookies Javon Bullard at safety and Edgerrin Cooper at linebacker, both perhaps the top players in the draft at their positions. 

And to a large degree, the defense has indeed shown it can play well.  They just don’t seem to have what it takes to play their best at the end of a game, with the outcome on the line.  In the playoffs against the 49ers they held that explosive offense to just fourteen points through three quarters.  The previous week they held the even more explosive Cowboys to sixteen points through the middle of the fourth quarter, until Matt LaFleur prematurely sent in the reserves. 

Green Bay’s offense will carry them a long way in 2024, just as it did in 2010.  But to be Super?  That’s going to be determined by the defense.  It’s time to be better than good.  It’s time to be great.