The most meaningless stat that comes out during a typical NFL offseason is the “strength of schedule” ratings. They are, of course, based on the team records of the previous year. As we see time and again, not only do teams change drastically during a single offseason, but even within the season.
This year’s Green Bay Packer schedule is a good example. Prior to week one, you could look at several games and feel comfortable putting them in your anticipated win column. But now, just two weeks into the 2022 campaign, suddenly some of those “easy wins” don’t look so easy.
Going in, we knew that road games such as at Minnesota, at Tampa Bay and at Buffalo were going to be tough. But the current schedule also has Green Bay going to Philadelphia in week twelve. Over the summer I thought the Eagles would merely be another mediocre team in the mediocre NFC East. But Philly suddenly looks very much improved. Some say they look like the best team in the NFC. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played himself into the early MVP conversation. It certainly got my attention Monday night when the Eagles blew out the Vikings, the same Vikings who dominated the Packers in week one.
In week sixteen the Pack must return to the state of Florida to play the Dolphins. Here again, I had that game comfortably in my win column. Not so fast my friend. Did you see what they did against Baltimore last Sunday? Tua Tagovailoa was outstanding throwing bombs to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They put up 42 points on a Ravens defense that was thought to be pretty good. The Dolphins’ new head coach Mike McDaniel is considered to be another one of these young offensive geniuses and he has been given many weapons to work with.
In week five the Pack travels to London to play the New York Giants. Piece of cake, right? Hold on. The Giants are off to an impressive 2-0 start with wins over the Titans and Panthers. Another new head coach/offensive guru Brian Daboll has apparently rejuvenated his oft-criticized quarterback Daniel Jones. Saquon Barkley is getting back to playing like his all-world self. Green Bay must also play at Detroit, where the Lions look feistier than ever under their feisty field boss Dan Campbell.
Some of the home games won’t be a walk in the park either. Dallas, Tennessee and the defending Super Bowl champion Rams are coming to Lambeau, plus the Vikings arrive for the second half of their annual home and home showdown. Surely we can at least put the week six home game against the Jets in the victory column, right? Hmmm…..the Jets looked pretty impressive coming from behind to upset the Browns last Sunday. Receiver Garrett Wilson seems to be emerging as a star and the defense is getting better.
So the schedule looks more challenging than it did three weeks ago. But don’t despair, because, just as other teams change and evolve during the season, so do the Packers. And this Green Bay team is going to get better and better as the weeks go by. The Pack has only scratched the surface of its potential. The offense can be so much more than just the Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon show. They haven’t even begun phasing tight ends Bobby Tonyan and Josiah Deguara into the passing target scheme.
At some point, Christian Watson is going to break out as a major part of the game plan. “We’re going to find ways to get him the football” said Matt LaFleur on Monday. Ditto for Romeo Doubs. Both LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers raved about his 20 yard gain on a second and 28 receiver screen against the Bears. “We probably don’t score a touchdown on that drive if he doesn’t make that play”, LaFleur told the beat writers. Allen Lazard just got back and was barely used against Chicago. His blocking and his experience getting open is going to be further utilized and exploited. “Right now we’ve got a good problem, because we want to play all of these guys”, says the head coach.
Elgton Jenkins may have returned to the O-line Sunday night, but the quality of his play is nowhere close to how well he will play in the future, as he regains his sea legs. LaFleur claims he has already made an impact. “His presence out there alone provided a huge spark…..I don’t know if we win that football game (against the Bears) if Elgton isn’t playing for us.”
Then there’s the possible return of David Bakhtiari. I now use the term “possible return” because it is looking less and less like a sure thing. But imagine the improvement in the run and pass game if Bakh comes back and approaches his previous level of play.
That’s just the offense. You could see the improvement in the defense from week one to week two. The run defense is still shaky, but with all that talent on that side of the ball, I find it hard to believe this unit is not going to get better and better with each passing week. Quay Walker is showing signs of being special. Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes are only going to improve with experience. Rashan Gary and Preston Smith are primed for pro bowl type seasons.
Then there’s special teams. In the first two weeks they haven’t done anything special, but they have performed solidly and haven’t been a liability. Imagine if Rich Bisaccia gets these guys to the point where they start making big plays and actually HELP the team win?
So, yes, the schedule looks tougher, but the Green Bay Packers are going to be a much better football team in November than they are now. Maybe even Super Bowl special.
GAME PREDICTION:
Packers 20 Bucs 17
Surprise Hero of the Game: Quay Walker
Upset Special of the week: Texans over Bears
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.