The North rules. For now.
Week six is over, and for your bespoke power rankings, APC’s Peter Voight has you covered…somewhere, but over on this side we’re trying something a little different. Power rankings are all about arguing about why they’re wrong, and it’s one thing to be subjectively wrong like Peter, and it’s quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here. We have plenty of major risers and faller, including basically the entire NFC North.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: CALCULATOR SCORE: 118.34, Change in CALCULATOR score: .19 – The Chiefs didn’t beat anyone this week, finally. But the bye is still good enough to keep them first overall as they possess the best Super Bowl odds, and the fourth best DVOA.
2. Baltimore Ravens: 107.15, .66 – Baltimore solidifies second place with an impressive win over the Commanders. Jayden Daniels was merely good, and Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers both posted nearly perfect, 132-yard performances. The Ravens are now just a hair behind the 49ers on Super Bowl odds, third in DVOA, and just barely second to Detroit in PFF grade.
3. San Francisco 49ers: 106.68, 3.65 – It turns out that it doesn’t matter who plays quarterback or running back for Kyle Shanahan as Isaac Guerendo rushed for 99 yards on just 10 carries. He’s very fast. The 49er defense picked off Geno Smith twice and held the Seattle backs to just 52 yards rushing. The 49ers are +700 to win it all, fourth in EPA per Play, and fifth in DVOA. And they just might be back on track.
4. Detroit Lions: 103.75, 14.08 – Our biggest riser of the week didn’t just beat the stuffings out of the Dallas Cowboys, they did it in style. Detroit suffered the famous “Taylor Decker Reporting Eligible” loss to Dallas last year and got their revenge by trolling the refs on a late touchdown run by having both Taylor Decker and Dan Skipper – the man officials claimed had reported instead of Decker last year – report eligible. They also ran a ton of fun plays, picked off Dak twice, and may end up getting some Cowboys canned, as this 47-9 Detroit victory came on Jerry’s birthday. The Lions are second in DVOA and in EPA per Play, but first in PFF grade. They would easily be second overall if they were better than +950 to win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, they lost Aidan Hutchinson for the year with a broken leg, which may make it difficult to hold on to this spot.
5. Minnesota Vikings: 96.64, -.7 – The Vikings didn’t play this weekend, but they’re still first in DVOA and EPA per Play, as the analytics love them. PFF, not so much as they rank 10th, barely ahead of Chicago, and the betting community is still a bit skeptical.
6. Buffalo Bills: 95.57, 5.93 – The Bills narrowly nipped the Aaron Rodgerses, resulting in the Monday trade for Davante Adams, because Aaron definitely knows what he’s doing. The Bills made their own trade for the Browns’ Amari Cooper, and rookie running back Ray Davis showed there would be no drop-off without starting RB James Cook, accounting for 152 total yards. One of the weirdest things about the Bills is the level of loathing from PFF. They are 23rd in PFF grade, just below the Giants, and essentially tied with Jacksonville. The only area that PFF holds as elite for Buffalo is the running game, and they are essentially below average in every other category. Whether you believe PFF or not, they’re third overall in EPA per Play, and one of the Super Bowl favorites at +850.
7. Houston Texans: 89.62, 4.69 – The Packers’ next opponent in the NFL’s best game of the week is an inexplicable noon game. The Texans are very good, and just pantsed the Patriots 41-21 without Nico Collins, but there are definitely a few holes in their game. The biggest is simply a fundamentally mediocre offense that ranks 16th in EPA per Play at .0009. The defense is quite a bit better, where they rank 8th (-.071), and they’re a solid 6th in DVOA overall, so it’s not as if I’m claiming the Texans are pretenders, as they absolutely are not. But they may have more trouble scoring on the Packer defense than one would think without their star outside receiver. They do have significantly better Super Bowl odds than their opponent.
8. Green Bay Packers: 77.18, 6.09 – The Packers make a pretty big leap on the heels of their demolition of the Cardinals, a feat that is about on par with what Houston did to New England. Houston has a significantly better DVOA than the Pack (21.1 v. 15.9), but Green Bay blows them away on EPA per Play (.134, 5th overall v. .08, 13th). PFF continues to hate the Pack but loves Houston at 6th overall. This should be a great game, and a nice test of metric v. metric.
9. Tampa Bay Bucs: 72.23, 7.79 – Your second biggest riser of the week shot up the charts by crushing New Orleans 51-27. Beating a severely injured New Orleans team isn’t that impressive, but putting a hurting on what is still a pretty competent defense is impressive. The Saints even picked Baker off three times, but it didn’t matter because everything else the Bucs did worked. Tampa is super fun and ranks roughly 8th in virtually all advanced metrics.
10. Atlanta Falcons: 71.83, 4.62 – When you face the Panthers, the goal is to take care of business, win by multiple scores, and don’t fall victim to a frisky Andy Dalton. The Falcons did that relying primarily on a Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combining for 200 yards and three scores on the ground. The Atlanta defense also picked off Dalton twice and won by 18. They’re fifth overall in PFF score, but just 14th in EPA.
11. Philadelphia Eagles: 69.79, 3.72 – If you ask me, the Eagles are getting WAY too big of a boost from just barely beating a pathetic Cleveland Browns team, and if AJ Brown were still injured, there is a decent chance they lose this game. Philly is just 20st in DVOA, 21st in EPA, but 13th via PFF. However, they get the biggest boost from their +1500 Super Bowl adds, eighth highest of any team.
12. Washington Commanders: 68.87, -2.92 – The scariest thing for the rest of the NFC about the Commanders seven-point loss to the Ravens is just how competitive they were. Baltimore is one of the true elites, and the Commanders hung in until the end despite a complete inability to stop Derrick Henry. It will be extremely difficult for non-elite offenses to hang with Washington, and they’re 7th in EPA per play despite a horrific run defense (and a pretty bad defense overall). Their Super Bowl odds are far worse than Philly’s for some reason.
13. Cincinnati Bengals: 68.1, 2.13 – The Bengals beat a Malik Nabers-less Giants team by ten, which seems pretty good, but they only did so because of a Joe Burrow 47-yard touchdown run. Which doesn’t seem like, sustainable. Here’s the thing, the Giants’ defense is sneaky good, and they will continue to cause problems for teams that take them lightly. Their offense blows because of Daniel Jones, but there are some good bones to work with here. The Bengals, on the other hand, have recovered nicely after a slow start, and while they’re still mostly average, their Super Bowl odds paint an optimistic picture going forward.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers: 67.93, .87 – The Steelers are benching Justin Fields, who had two rushing touchdowns in this game, for Russell Wilson, who exercises in airplane aisles and makes football shaped bread. In fairness, almost any team was going to beat a Davante-less Raiders team starting Aidan O’Connell. They should have won by like 30 instead of 19. The Steelers are 16th in DVOA, but fourth(!) In PFF grade.
15. Chicago Bears: 67.22, 5.27 – Now, before we all panic, the Bears have played the easiest schedule so far, and they play the most difficult going forward. That said, there has been real development from Caleb Williams, who went from struggling against those poor teams to looking like a real, actual quarterback. Williams threw for 226 yards, four TDs, and one pick against the Jags, and he did so by working through his progressions to down to his third and fourth options in Keenan Allen (2 TDs) and Cole Kmet (2 more). The Bears are exactly tied with the Packers in EPA per Play (.134).
16. Los Angeles Chargers: 65.83, 2.88 – The Chargers got out to a 23-0 lead over the Broncos, and the Broncos aren’t really built to come back on people. The Chargers are correctly ranked here, but they’re worth keeping an eye one because their defense is outstanding, and their offense, while in a rebuilding mode, has excelled at spreading the ball around. In this game, nine different pass-catchers caught balls from Justin Herbert, and they don’t have to score much to win games. They’re eighth in EPA per Play, though only 15th in DVOA.
17. Seattle Seahawks: 65.67, -7.02 – Remember when the Seahawks were the darlings of PFF grading? They’re now down to 9th, which is closer to reality, but still quite a bit higher than their underlying efficiency stats. There’s no shame in losing to the 49ers, but this is more of what Seattle actually is: a middling team that loses to the 49ers.
18. New Orleans Saints: 63.98, -11.38 – Without Derek Carr or Taysom Hill, the Saints had no answer for Tampa, and they are our biggest droppers of the week (just barely). Spenser Rattler was sacked five times and threw two picks, and after the dust settled, New Orleans now has analytics numbers between 16th and 18th, and the 20th highest Super Bowl odds. Quite the fall from grace.
19. New York Jets: 62.21, -1.75 – It was cool to see Aaron Rodgers hit a trademark Hail Mary to Allen Lazard at the end of the first half, but that 52-yard touchdown disguised yet another uninspiring performance from the aged signal-caller. Will Davante Adams help the Jets? Probably a little, yes. Davante is excellent, and the two have always had a nice rapport. But Adams is fundamentally window-dressing. The issues with the Jets run deep, and if they crack the top sixteen again this year I’ll be surprised. They are tied for 10th in Super Bowl odds, but they’re 21st in DVOA, and 20th in PFF grade.
20. Indianapolis Colts: 60.67, 1.41 – The Colts beat the Titans like everyone else, and picked off Will Levis like everyone else, and I refuse to watch any highlights of this game. I will, once again, say “good job, Joe Flacco.” Somehow, possibly because of legalized mind-altering substances, the Colts are 11th in PFF grade, one spot behind the Vikings, and eight spots better than the Packers.
21. Denver Broncos: 58.54, -1.38 – The Broncos have advanced to a point where they can conceivably score points against below average defenses. Unfortunately, they can’t do anything against a good defense, and the Chargers have at least a top five defense based on any metric. The Denver defense is still very good, but they spend every Sunday getting left out to dry. The team is actually about average in most metrics, but you need some kind of offense to win a Super Bowl, and their Super Bowl odds are a 26th ranked +15000 as a result.
22. Arizona Cardinals: 53.03, -4.17 – We all saw what was wrong with the Cards on Sunday, and that defense just isn’t going to get it done. The injury to Marvin Harrison also isn’t going to help his development, and he could definitely use more experience as he has a Dontayvion-Wicks level case of the drops. The Cardinals are still very much in a rebuilding phase and will be living in the 20s until they get another talent infusion in the offseason. PFF has them at 17th overall, but every other metric has them solidly in the mid-20s.
23. Dallas Cowboys: 51.97, -11.19 – The Lions embarrassed the Cowboys, but it’s really mostly just the Cowboys embarrassing themselves. Dallas isn’t as bad as the Chicago White Sox of Major League Baseball, but their problems are quite similar. They’re running an old -fashioned NFL team using old-fashioned principles of offense and team development, empowered by a legacy owner who can’t stay out of his own way. The Cowboys are 27th in EPA per Play AND PFF Grade, but somehow still +3400 to win the Super Bowl.
24. New York Giants: 51.6, -1.67 – Check out the Giants’ defense since Week 3. Eh?
Unfortunately, everything else about the team is just atrocious, as they rank 23rd in DVOA, and 22nd in EPA per Play. I can’t believe Daniel Jones’ backup is Drew Lock because I used to get those two mixed up all the time. The Giants took Malik Nabers in the draft, and he’s fantastic. Amazing. Already one of the best in the league when healthy. But I can’t help wondering how this team would be with either Michael Penix or a healthy JJ McCarthy. Probably still bad actually, I take it back. Give me the super elite receiver.
25. Tennessee Titans: 47.39, -.24 – There are teams below the Titans, but the Titans are just horrible, and I think they really kick off the “horrible” level well. I’ve poked fun at PFF during the course of this post, but they have Tennessee tied for last, and I think I agree. I would have them tied with Cleveland instead of Carolina, but Tennessee should be last. Some teams lack talent, some are injured, some are complete morons like the Browns, but the Titans are just a mess. According to EPA they actually have an elite defense, but the Malik Willis Packers scored 30 and the Bears and Jets put up 24, and the Colts, who are terrible, won 20-17. They stopped the Tua-less Dolphins though. Whoopee! In fairness to their defense, their complete mess of an offense makes it quite hard on them, but like, this is not a secret good defense. It just isn’t. It’s rare I disagree with EPA but come on.
26. Los Angeles Rams – 47.09, 1.41 – The Rams got a nice, relaxing week off. I doubt there is any team that needed it more.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars – Remember when Trevor Lawrence was a can’t miss QB prospect? I do, because when I was fine-tuning QBOPS back in the day (see here for details on what this is), he kept ranking behind Michael Penix, and Tua, and Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts, and even Justin Fields, and I always wondered why this elite dude wasn’t way better than all of those guys. And yes, he’s probably better than Justin Fields, but I also think there’s a warning there. For elite players, elite college production matters. Of course, the Jaguars have like a billion things wrong with them and maybe Joe Montana couldn’t even fix them. They’re 28th in EPA, but all the way up at 24th in PFF grade.
28. Miami Dolphins: 38.54, -.25 – The Dolphins had the week off, and hey, they got to spend it in Miami, which is pretty good. They remain second to last in DVOA.
29. Las Vegas Raiders: 37.82, -1.4 – The Raiders didn’t put up much of a fight, but at least they realize what they are, and they’re moving on. Is Gardner Minshew hurt or were they playing O’Connell just to see what they have? I don’t care at all, but they are getting a healthy dose of Brock Bowers, and moved Adams for assets. They should move even more. They are one of four teams with an EPA under -.2.
30. New England Patriots: 35.1, -3.89 – Drake Maye actually played pretty well considering the caliber of the Houston defense he was facing, and had the Pats not traded all of their good defensive players before the season started, one might wonder if this team could have been a mild contender. Instead, they’re 2nd last in EPA, and 3rd last in PFF grade.
31. Cleveland Browns: 34.98, -2.79 – The Browns quietly offloaded Amari Cooper to Buffalo, and they should unload a lot more, but they won’t, because they’re morons. They are somehow not last in EPA, but they absolutely are in DVOA.
32. Carolina Panthers: 32.04, -1.73 – The Panthers are bad, but at least they’re kind of fun, and it looks like rookie Xavier Legette can actually play if his quarterback isn’t a hobbit. Unfortunately, they have quite the hobbit-hole to dig out of, as they’re still averaging -.291 EPA per Play, and remain tied for dead last in Super Bowl odds and PFF grade.