The Green Bay Packers will have a very hard time tagging Davante Adams if they cannot reach a long-term contract with him by the deadline. That is at least if the team cannot wring $15 to $20 million in cap relief from Aaron Rodgers prior to the start of the new league year because he wants to be traded or he retires. It would still be possible, but it would get extremely tight, and a lot would have to go well. Let’s briefly discuss the options and the rules associated with the options.
The Packers have to decide whether to tag Adams by Tuesday, March 8. They can use an exclusive franchise tag (only the Packers can negotiate with Adams), a non-exclusive tag (Adams can negotiate with other teams and sign one offer sheet which the Packers can match or decline to match: if they decline, the Packers receive two first-round picks), and a transition tag (Adams can negotiate and sign an offer sheet from some other team which the Packers can match or decline to match, but if they decline, the Packers receive no draft compensation, not even a compensatory pick).
The exclusive franchise tag is rarely used (6 times since 2012). The amount of this tag is unknown at this time. It won’t be known until restricted free agency ends on April 22nd. Any signings of wide receivers in the next month or so will count under the formula. The non-exclusive amount is used as a placeholder figure, with the NFL adjusting it upwards if necessary in late April. The amount is the average of the top five wide receiver salaries or 120% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is higher. The amount can be considerably more than the non-exclusive amount.
It is nearly inconceivable that the Packers would apply this tag. Using this tag would eliminate legal tampering and offer sheets since other teams could not talk numbers with Adams or with his agent. That would make it harder for Adams to calculate his actual value on the open market. Is that a good thing or a bad thing for the Packers? Allen Robinson, Mike Williams and arguably, Chris Godwin are the notable free agent wide receivers. None of them are quite in Adams’ league, and Godwin got hurt. I do not see another elite receiver who will help define Adams’ personal market.
If he is both stubborn and delusional about his value, the exclusive tag sounds like a bad thing to me. [Looking at the contract of DeAndre Hopkins, it looks to me like a three year deal for $60 million, or about $20 million per season, not $27.5 million/year.] If he is not delusional about his open market value being in the $27M to $30M range, then maybe it makes some sense to keep him wondering. Adams’ agent probably is at the combine trying to get feedback from teams. Still, if this tag costs even a couple of million more than the non-exclusive tag, it is likely beyond the Packers’ reach.
Overthecap estimates the transition tag at $16.74 million. That number would be easier for the Packers to carry on the books but not enough easier to make a real difference, in my opinion. [It would almost pay for a second round RFA tender to Lazard.] The Packers could not match an offer sheet from another team that included a first-year cap hit of $17M to $20M: indeed anything over $13M or so gets difficult. Quite a few teams could offer a structure that demands a big first-year cap number, and the Packers by rule could not alter the contract until 2023. If they decline to match, the Packers would not even get a compensatory pick later. This is a non-starter: the Packers get all of the problems associated with using one of the franchise tags without some of the main benefits.
The non-exclusive tag is the one that most people mean when they discuss the franchise tag. It is currently estimated at $20.12 million (it depends on the actual salary cap limit). Two first-round picks should preclude teams from issuing an offer sheet for Adams’ signature but not deter teams from discussing trade compensation with the Packers while discussing contract terms with Adams at the same time. That is the tag-and-trade scenario, but it also gives the Packers time to reach agreement on a long-term contract while Adams learns his true value on the open market.
The Packers can rescind any tag if they want to (unless Adams signs the tag). Rescinding the tag means Adams would immediately become an unrestricted free agent and the Packers lose all chance of getting draft compensation from another team. If they rescinded any of the tags, the Packers would still be eligible for a compensatory pick in the 2023 draft, which obviously would be a third rounder. If Adams signs the tag (which he won’t), the Packers can no longer rescind it, and it becomes a fully guaranteed one-year deal, but a long-term deal can stil be reached through July 15. Rescinding tags is rare: the last one was Josh Norman way back in 2016.
There are good reasons to believe that Adams would not sign the tag. The number one reason is that a team cannot trade a player who has not signed his tag. The player has a complete veto over any trade. The player would certainly retain some leverage even if he had signed the tag by threatening to refuse to report if he disliked the acquiring team selected by the Packers. The acquiring team would need to be sure that Adams would play for them because a significant draft pick or picks would be involved.
Another reason is that a player who has not signed his tag is not subject to fines for failing to show up for OTAs and training camp. If no deal is reached by July 15, then the player can only play under a one-year deal: no long-term deal can be reached by anyone in 2022. The player can still report to the team prior to week ten of the season, so the team has to keep the cap number amount in reserve in case the player does report, which means the team cannot use that space to sign any free agents. At week ten, the team would have to still have almost half of the tag number amount available as cap space: note that the trade deadline usually occurs before week ten.
It has been written that the tag amount hits the cap immediately. It depends on what you mean. Tag numbers count against the cap starting the moment the new league year begins and not before, and it does not matter whether the player has signed the tag. As a note, ERFA and RFA tenders are not due until March 16th. That means there is some wriggle room between the 8th and the 16th. If the Packers tag Adams but it turns out they do not have quite enough to issue an offer to Lazard at the 2nd round tender amount of $3.98M (or by extension, contracts to their UFAs or outside free agents), then they have made a choice about the benefits of tagging Adams and retaining Lazard’s services at a fairly cheap rate along with the services of those other free agents.
History: Something like half of all players who are tagged reach a long-term with their teams. Some were traded and the rest played on the tag. Only LeVeon Bell sat out a whole season in recent memory. In 2021, nine players, safeties Marcus Williams, Justin Simmons, Marcus Maye, DT Leonard Williams, LG Brandon Scherff, OT Cam Robinson, WRs Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson were tagged. Only Justin Simmons and Leonard Williams signed long-term among that group with the rest playing for the same team on the tag. I think 2021 was a special case since the salary cap went way down. Players assumed that 2022 would be a better year to sign a long-term deal and many teams simply lacked cap space to sign UFAs. Also, Chris Godwin’s injury highlights the risk a player takes by playing on the tag. Scherff getting $18M as a LG (2nd time he was tagged and guards are lumped in with tackles) illustrates another point: it makes more sense to tag elite players than it does to tag just good players since the tag will be less than their value.
This article from the Sporting News lists the players who have been tagged since 2015. There were a whopping 15 players tagged in 2020, but otherwise 5 to 7 is normal. Scanning the names on the list, it looks to me like half of those players reached long-term deals. Three of the six players tagged in 2019 (Dee Ford, Frank Clark, and Jadeveion Clowney) received extensions after being traded, while Grady Jarrett, Robby Gould, and Demarcus Lawrence wrangled long-term extensions from the teams that tagged them.
SO, WHAT SHOULD THE PACKERS DO?
It depends!
My first concern is a question of nuts and bolts. That means negotiating like mad to make sure the team has the wherewithal to tag Adams. I have voiced my concern that one or more players could throw a monkey wrench into the Packers’ plans. We now find that the Packers did not use void years on Bakhtiari’s contract per Ken Ingalls, so his cap savings for 2022 should be $1.5M less than previously estimated. The failure to use void years might have been a management decision, but it also might be due to a refusal on Bakhtiari’s part to agree to void years. He may have seen the effect of an enormous cap number in the last year of Zadarius Smith’s deal and concluded that having a cap number normally only applied to quarterbacks is bad for him.
The Packers absolutely have to generate cap space, preferably by extensions rather than by releases (if they are going all-in again). That presents good opportunities for some of these players to demand sweetened deals. Preston Smith, age 30, is coming off the best season of his career. He should strike while the iron is hot rather than waiting until after the 2022 season to cash in on a big-money, long term deal. 2022 might see an injury or a decline in the quality of his play. I see no reason for Preston Smith’s agent not to ask for the moon, or perhaps $18M AAV, anyway. Preston Smith has no void years, so there he has to agree to alter his contract. The Packers could decide that it is worth it to overpay Smith somewhat or they could just release him to gain $12.5M in cap relief. If the “plan” was to get $8M in cap relief, Gute would have $4.5M at hand to try to replace Preston Smith, which seems difficult (or even just bid on his services in free agency). He has shown he can play at a high level in Green Bay so he is a better bet than trying to replace him in free agency or the draft.
The same principle applies to every other player in question. Amos, Turner and Lowry gave void years last year, so the Packers might be able to auto-convert roster and base salary into a signing bonus if the contract language allows for that and thus the team might not need the cooperation of these players. It would mean that the Packers spread the cap hit over four years instead of the five that would be normally available with cooperation or an extension. The Packers probably could wring more cap savings out of extensions than auto-conversions would allow. All of them had very good years and their market value might never be higher, particularly Lowry. If Amos is worth $12M AAV on an extension, perhaps he can get $14M AAV from the Packers? For 2022, Turner will be 31, Preston 30, Amos 29 and Lowry will be 28.
The next steps are to get Alexander extended to gain $6M to $7M in cap relief. That should not be difficult since it is probably better for him to get the extension than to play on a 5th-year option. They need a couple of plans for what to do with Mason Crosby and Marcedes Lewis (combined cap relief if both were released is $4.84M after all) under various scenarios. I am assuming that ZaDarius Smith and Randall Cobb will be released, though I suppose they could take truly massive pay cuts to remain Packers.
Finally, they have to await the decision of Aaron Rodgers, which simply has to come in the next few days. I suspect that the front office will apprise Rodgers of their general plan if he returns, including the fates of Cobb and Crosby, and some general idea of which RFAs and UFAs they plan to and/or think they may be able to retain (or at least make good-faith offers to). Then the Packers can decide about tagging Davante Adams.
The Packers could go ahead and tag Adams. They can rescind it if necessary. They can reach an extension if necessary though it is not clear how dug in each side is as to what his AAV should be. The notion of a tag and trade without Adams’ agreement is not really feasible. If there is a delay in hammering out the details in Adams’ extension or finding a trade partner acceptable to Adams, it is possible that the Packers will watch some or all of Campbell, Douglas, Lazard, MVS, and a few other contributors sign contracts with other teams in the first wave of free agency. If Rodgers agrees to an extension with the Packers that provides a lot of cap relief, that might help persuade Adams to sign an extension with a cap number around $10M for 2022. Then it would seem to be an issue of whether Adams and the team can agree on his value.
Finally, the other related issue is that getting better than a third-round compensatory pick for Adams is nothing to be sneezed at if the front office can lay the proper groundwork to make the money and cap work. The Packers’ draft results for picking players in the 85 to 104 slots of the draft are pretty bad (though that could be both recency bias and a simple aberration) whereas their results for late first rounders and second rounders are pretty good. Estimates are that the Packers could get somewhere between a late first and a second rounder for Adams – I am not sure how much Adams’ contractual demands might affect that compensation. Those are pure policy decisions for policy-makers to examine and make.
I have written that the Packers’ threat to tag Adams was probably an empty one. Yes, the Packers could tag Adams, while also trading Rodgers (meaning no cap relief from Rodgers), but it would be a close thing short of some crazy contracts. The Packers would have to be extremely aggressive with and probably generous to their other sources of cap relief while being willing to accept having a lot of dead money pushed into 2023 and beyond, and possibly having to forego the tender on Lazard. I doubted the team’s willingness to be that aggressive.