Super Bowl Aspirations: Improving Play on Defensive Side of the Ball

Green Bay Packers fans worldwide have been begging for consistency from the team’s defense for as long as I can remember. And since head coach Matt LaFleur began manning the sidelines in 2019, the defense has played well enough in some stretches but was still not up to the task in other stretches. So as LaFleur welcomes Jeff Hafley, the third defensive coordinator to work under LaFleur, can the defense play more consistently? 

After employing a 3-4 defense under Mike Pettine and Joe Barry, Green Bay will transition to a 4-3 defense under Hafley. However, the Packers will likely still employ a nickel defense (4-2-5) more times than not. Regardless, general manager Brian Gutekunst made it a point of emphasis throughout free agency and the draft to completely revamp the team’s secondary, a group that is Hafley’s specialty. 

While the team welcomed back Keisean Nixon as one of the nickelbacks, Gutekunst signed safety Xavier McKinney during free agency, making him one of the highest-paid safeties in the league, and drafted the following defensive backs: Javon Bullard (second round, 58th overall), Evan Williams (fourth round, 111th overall), and Kitan Oladapo (fifth round, 169th overall). He also drafted cornerback Kalen King in the seventh round, who was projected as a first-round selection ahead of the 2023 season. At least one of the aforementioned rookies will be expected to be a regular contributor in the secondary. 

The depth at linebacker was thin ahead of the draft, after the team cut ties with De’Vondre Campbell, prompting Gutekunst to spend two draft picks to bolster that group. Edgerrin Cooper (second round, 45th overall) should be penciled in to start alongside Quay Walker, while Ty’Ron Hopper (third round, 91st overall) should provide depth and could be a special teams contributor in Year 1. 

It appears that one of the goals for Hafley is to play much faster and more aggressively on the defensive side of the ball, which was reflected in the 2024 draft selections. So for the Packers to compete for the Lombardi Trophy, assuming that the offense plays the way they played in 2023 (more on that below), what level does the defense need to play at for that to come to fruition? They need to be at least a top-half defense, and probably better. 

The 2023 Packers largely made the playoffs and advanced to the Divisional Round on the back of their red-hot offense down the stretch, as quarterback Jordan Love and Co. finished 6th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA, for those unfamiliar, is an efficiency and opponent-adjusted statistic. However, the defense did not do its part. Yes, they pulled it together to end the regular season and forced turnovers in the postseason, but overall they simply were too inconsistent. They finished 27th in DVOA. 

The four teams to play on Conference Championship Weekend last season – the Baltimore Ravens (4th in Offense DVOA, 1st in Defense DVOA), Kansas City Chiefs (8th, 7th), San Francisco 49ers (1st, 4th), and Detroit Lions (5th, 13th) – all finished the regular season in the top ten in Offense DVOA and the top half in Defense DVOA. In 2022, it was much of the season. The Cincinnati Bengals finished the regular season 4th in Offense DVOA and 7th in Defense DVOA; the Chiefs finished first and 14th; the 49ers finished sixth and first; and the Eagles finished third and sixth. The Packers made the conference championship in 2019 and 2020 and ranked in the top half in Defense DVOA in 2019 (15th), but ranked just outside the top half in 2020 (17th). 

While those inside the building and a few outside of the building may have high expectations for Hafley’s defense in 2024, keep in mind that they have ranked inside the top ten in DVOA only twice since the franchise won Super Bowl XLV (2012 and 2015). They ranked in the 20s in each of the last three seasons. 

One way for the Packers to become at least a top-half defense is to improve their pass rush and corresponding scheme. While they ranked seventh in Pressure% (24.3%), they finished tied for 16th in total sacks and 19th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate, which is defined as “how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds.” Even worse, according to Next Gen Stats, they were dead last in unblocked pressures when they brought at least six pass rushers and 27th in Unblocked Pressure Rate. Those two stats boil down to an ineffective scheme. 

It’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg scenario when deciding whether a strong pass rush or coverage ability is more important to a defense’s overall performance, but it is clear to me that putting players in a position to succeed always plays. Here’s to hoping that Hafley does just that.