Succession: The Packers Have Mastered It At QB

When the Atlanta Falcons drafted quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. with the eighth overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, a majority of NFL fans and media members alike were perplexed and largely chastised the pick. After all, the franchise signed quarterback Kirk Cousins earlier in the offseason to a four-year deal worth $180 million, which is effectively a two-year deal for $100 million. While the comparison is a bit apples to oranges, the Falcons nevertheless took a page out of the Green Bay Packers’ playbook: drafting a quarterback before it is absolutely necessary to do so. 

Roughly three months after the organization introduced Ted Thompson as general manager, he pulled off the unthinkable by drafting quarterback Aaron Rodgers with the 24th overall selection in the 2005 NFL Draft, despite having Brett Favre as QB1. “It was a direct result of Thompson’s foresight and boldness. Neither his coach, Mike Sherman, nor his quarterback, Favre, were happy about the choice,” team historian Cliff Christl wrote in December 2020. Favre would play for three more seasons in Green Bay before being traded to the New York Jets in August 2008, paving the way for Rodgers to take the reins as QB1. Fast forward to the 2020 offseason. The Packers, in the first year of head coach Matt LaFleur’s tenure, reached the Conference Championship game, only to get blown out by the San Francisco 49ers. With Rodgers not getting any younger and, therefore, the Super Bowl window getting smaller and smaller, many outsiders believed – strongly, I might add – general manager Brian Gutekunst should do everything possible to add talent that would aid in getting the team back to the Super Bowl. Gutekunst believed otherwise. He traded up for quarterback Jordan Love and selected the Utah State product with the 26th overall selection, two picks after Rodgers’ draft slot. 

Hindsight is 20/20, but perhaps, everyone should not have been as surprised as they were that Gutekunst, who joined the Packers as a scout in 1999, invoked the late Thompson’s “foresight and boldness.” Here is what Gutekunst said ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft when asked whether he was thinking of creating a succession plan at quarterback, according to Matt Schneidman. “Obviously [Rodgers is] still playing at an elite level. But for me, I was raised (in scouting) by Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson. If there’s a quarterback we think can play, that’s a starter in the National Football League, we’ll never pass that up.” 

Just like his predecessor, Rodgers played three more seasons with the Packers, two of which resulted in an MVP, before getting traded to – yep, you guessed it – the Jets prior to the 2023 NFL Draft. That trade, in a similar vein to the 2008 trade, paved the way for Love to take the keys as QB1. I wrote the following last March: “If Love turns out to be a top-ten(ish) quarterback year-in, year-out, with years bordering on elite (Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan are two names that come to mind, but obviously not the current version of those players), then Gutekunst is a Harry Potter-level wizard.” Gutekunst might just be a Harry Potter-level wizard, but many would have begged to differ early on in Love’s first year as a full-time starter. 

Love showed flashes in the first half of the 2023 season, but he was largely inconsistent and threw too many head-scratching interceptions. After throwing six touchdown passes (zero interceptions) in the first two games, Love threw four touchdowns and seven interceptions over the next four games. The pitchforks came out, and they came out in full force. Many wondered whether Gutekunst committed malpractice by drafting Love when he did. Moreover, those same people believed it was in the best interest of the Packers to draft a quarterback with their first round pick in 2024. However, Gutekunst was vindicated, for now, with the way Love finished the 2023 season. It’s undoubtedly a small sample size, and there is a chance Love will regress in 2024. Nevertheless, Love appears to have cemented himself as the team’s franchise quarterback, a designation several NFL teams are searching for. 

There is no one reason why the Packers have enjoyed as much success as they have since they traded for Favre in 1991. Having offensive-minded head coaches over the years, like Mike Holmgren, Mike McCarthy, and Matt LaFleur, helped. Having a quarterback whisperer, Tom Clements, for Favre, Rodgers, and Love helped. Possessing an organizational commitment to identifying and developing talent at the most important position in sports helped. Not having an overly hands-on owner, or even an actual owner, helped. And frankly, luck helped, too. But if there is one reason why, especially with Rodgers and Love, it’s this: they were patient. Far too many teams throw their young quarterbacks – proverbial young pups – into the lion’s den and, on a very simple level, expect them to make the offense better than what they inherited. In a way, more times than not, young quarterbacks are bringing a knife to a gunfight. 

There have been 35 quarterbacks selected in the first round over the last 10 drafts (2015-2024), 29 if you exclude the 2024 draft class. Among those 29 quarterbacks, 13 quarterbacks started Week 1 of their rookie seasons, and 24 quarterbacks started at least six games. Paxton Lynch, drafted by the Denver Broncos in 2016, started two games (Week 5 and Week 13); Patrick Mahomes, drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2017, started one game (Week 17); Trey Lance, drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in 2021, started two games due to an injury to the starter; Love did not start a single game; and Anthony Richardson, drafted by the Indianapolis Colts in 2023, started the first four games last season before suffering a season-ending injury. 

For this year’s class, in which there were a record-breaking six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks, it is expected at this moment that Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix will be their team’s Week 1 starter, barring unforeseen circumstances, while the jury is still out on when Drake Maye (New England Patriots) and J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings) will see the field as the full-time starter. Thus, only one quarterback – Penix Jr. – will not assume QB1 status in 2024, barring injury. 

In total, only five quarterbacks – Lynch, Mahomes, Love, Lance, and Penix Jr. – will have had a true redshirt year. The redshirt year for Mahomes, and redshirt years for Love, undoubtedly helped them in their development, but it didn’t matter for Lynch or Lance. The Broncos and San Francisco cut ties with those quarterbacks after only two seasons. 

But just because a quarterback was thrown into the proverbial lion’s den in Year 1 doesn’t mean he didn’t elevate his team. Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and C.J. Stroud were named Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019, 2020, and 2023, respectively. There were also a handful of other quarterbacks who performed well in their rookie seasons, with 10 quarterbacks who started at least six games posting a QB Rating of at least 87.0. 

By and large, though, a majority of the rookie quarterbacks have struggled. Would they have benefitted from a redshirt year(s)? Most likely. For example, of the six quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 2021 and 2022, only one gunslinger – Trevor Lawrence – is on the team that drafted him. The five other quarterbacks are currently backups on other respective teams. A redshirt year would have probably done them well, although Mac Jones had a solid rookie season before his play dropped off a cliff. 

It is important to keep in mind that teams that start a rookie quarterback at some point during Year 1 sometimes have their hands tied. They may be getting pressure from the owner to start the first-round selection to get asses in the seats. Equally as plausible is they did not properly invest in the quarterback position, leaving them with an inadequate bridge quarterback and no other choice than to go to the rookie to give them a chance to win football games. The Chiefs were fortunate their bridge quarterback was a former No. 1 pick, Alex Smith, and the Packers were fortunate their bridge quarterbacks were Favre and Rodgers. I don’t think either was necessarily an accident. 

Far too many rookie quarterbacks have also had poor supporting casts, another reason why it would be beneficial for teams to not rush them into action. Moreover, there is something to be said about a young quarterback not having too much on his plate. Instead, more teams should have enough of a proper infrastructure in place to allow their young quarterback to simply focus on the playbook and improving their craft during practice and preseason action. 

Finally, not enough teams take multiple swings in the draft at quarterback, the most important position in all of sports. Invest, invest, invest. Despite having a franchise quarterback, Ron Wolf and the Packers drafted Ty Detmer (9th round in 1992), Mark Brunell (5th round in 1993), Matt Hasselback (6th round in 1998), and Aaron Brooks (4th round in 2000). While none of them obviously started for the Packers, Brunell was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars for the 66th and 170th overall selections in the 1995 draft. The Packers selected William Henderson, a Pro Bowler and All-Pro honoree in 2004, and Travis Jervey, who made the Pro Bowl as a special teams player. The Packers also traded Hasselback to the Seattle Seahawks, receiving the Seahawks’ first and third round selections (10th and 72nd overall) in the 2001 draft while giving up the 17th overall selection. Neither player the Packers selected panned out, but that’s not the point. The point is, Wolf made a concerted effort to invest in the quarterback position. Gutekunst has done just that over the last two drafts, selecting Sean Clifford (5th round in 2023) and Michael Pratt (7th round in 2024). 

All this is much easier said than done in the quest to find a franchise quarterback. And yet, the Packers have mastered it for three decades.