The Green Bay Packers aren’t a lock to make the playoffs. But it’s pretty close. If they can finish 3-3 or maybe even 2-4 they should get a wild card. The division is not out of reach, but it looks like a long-shot.

Elite and the rest

Detroit, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City appear to be the elite teams in the NFC and AFC. The Packers are in a group of 4-5 other teams that could go on a run and join or pass the NFC elite if things break right.

There are no team without weaknesses. For the Packers to get to the divisional round or NFC title game they need improvement in three key areas: pass rush, impact from receivers and overall health.

Rush? Not enough

Rashan Gary has shown a small uptick of late, in quarterback pressures and sacks, but he’s been far from a high impact edge rusher. Through 11-games he ranks 54th in the league with 4.5 sacks. Devonte Wyatt has 3, and Edgerrin Cooper has 2.5, while Kenny Clark has zero. This is the stat line of pass rush that isn’t getting it done.

Jeff Hafley can scheme more pressure, or at least try to. But it’s hard to imagine Green Bay making a deep playoff run if the pass rush can’t make a greater impact.

Receivers, meh

Maybe the Jordan Love injury which costing him 2+ games and limiting him in others, or his interception jag, has stunted the passing game. Maybe Matt LaFleur hasn’t found the right play calling mix. Or, is it that the combination of Doubs, Watson, Reed and Wicks haven’t developed as we thought they might after last season?

It’s hard to pinpoint. In defense-adjusted value over average, or DVOA, a respected but wonky stat, Green Bay ranks 8th in the league. They are scoring points. But there haven’t been many games this year when Love and his receivers and tight ends looked in synch like they did down the stretch last year.

Obviously, drops have been an issue, particularly with Dontavion Wicks. According to Pro Football Reference the Packers have the third worst drop rate in the league at 7.7%. Whether it’s drops, interceptions, game plan or cohesion, the passing game needs to be better for this team to advance.

Availability is the best ability

Not to jinx it, but the Packers have had a relatively healthy season. Still, the injuries to Love and Jaire Alexander have dragged down their potential. As much as keeping a healthy franchise QB and your best corner on the field would help, so would the returns of Luke Musgrave, Edgerrin Cooper, Marshawn Lloyd and Jordan Morgan. You can’t count on it, but dodging a big injury the rest of the way improves Green Bay’s chances.

The potential for this team is still there to be reached. An improved pass rush, pass game efficiency and overall health top the wish list for a great stretch run.

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