The last time the Packers had a playoff bye was just last year.
They ran the Rams out of town in the divisional round before dropping a heart-breakingly close NFCCG.
In the NFCCG, injuries hurt. The Packers really felt the loss of David Bakhtiari and shuffling the line around exposed their lack of depth against an absolutely dominant pass rush. Kevin King started, despite a bad back injury, and was targeted often, giving up two touchdowns in a very close loss.
But this year, the Packers have stocked up on depth at both offensive line and cornerback.
After a season of watching star after star go down with injury, the Packers saw backups rise to the occasion and now they’re getting almost everyone back in time for the playoffs.
It’s a very exciting time to be a Packers fan.
WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL
The Packers defense has let off the gas a little the last few weeks after an incredibly hot start. They’ve given up over 30 points three times in their 5 games since the bye.
But is it as bad as it sounds?
Their best effort was slapping around the Vikings in a 37-10 laugher. Then they gave up 37 to the Lions in a meaningless game where it was clear the defense was not going to get creative with any scheme and was mostly trying to stay healthy and rest starters. They gave up 30 to the Bears, but a lot of that was because of special teams and the Packers blew them out anyways. They gave up 22 to the Browns in a 2 point win and 30 to the Ravens in a 1 point win. Close endings, but the Packers had two score leads late in both contests and the defense just appeared to take their foot off the gas.
At no point did the Packers look helpless or outclassed on defense. When they gave up points, it was usually because they let up late.
I don’t think that lack of intensity will be a problem in the playoffs – the coaches should certainly have reminded them of how close those games got.
The most promising thing of all, though, is that they have everyone on defense healthy enough to practice.
After going without All Pros Za’Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander for most of the year, they’ve both returned to practice and were unexpectedly joined by Whitney Mercilus, who previously looked lost for the year with a torn bicep.
Now, the biggest challenge they have is where to play everyone.
With a deep edge position featuring Preston Smith and Rashon Gary (who had very good seasons) now complemented by Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus, the Packers have a lot of flexibility. They could rotate them often and keep them fresh, while making opposing offensive tackles constantly have to change their approach to suit a different rusher. They could also use Za’Darius Smith and Gary as defense ends. They could also get them all on the field at the same time as standup linebackers.
The possibilities are endless and, with no film on how the Packers would use all four of them, they have a gameplanning advantage as well.
Then in the secondary, Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes have had great seasons as boundary corners. Now Jaire Alexander is back and he has the perfect skillset to play the slot. He played mostly on the outside so far in his career, but that’s in part because he was so good and in part because they needed more help on the outside. With Douglas and Stokes now firmly entrenched outside, the Packers could let them stay where they’ve been comfortable and successful and play Jaire in the slot. The Packers also have the ability to roll out any number of alternative looks with Jaire outside or rolling zones.
Again, becuase they have so much talent and opponents have no film, the Packers are at a huge advantage.
Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos have been mostly solid on the back end (which should be easier with Jaire, Douglas, and Stokes all in coverage) and Kenny Clark and First Team All Pro De’Vondre Campbell have been dominant in the middle of the defense.
There’s a lot of talent and big names, but the wild card just might be Dean Lowry.
With offensive coordinators focused on beating the Packers stacked secondary and trying to get a blocking scheme for the bigger names, Lowry, who has quietly been playing some of the best ball of his career, could find himself in a position to make some splash plays as the forgotten man if offenses forget about him.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
The Packers lack of offensive line depth was a major factor in not winning the Super Bowl last year.
This year, the Packers offensive line has been impressive while playing mostly 2nd and 3rd stringers all season.
Last week, Josh Myers came back and looked pretty comfortable at center, allowing Lucas Patrick to to move to right guard, effectively upgrading two positions with his return. David Bakhtiari also stepped in at left tackle and looked like he hadn’t missed a beat. He stonewalled everyone who came near him and then took a seat to catch his breath.
Yosh Nijman performed more than good enough for the Packers to win, but the Packers clearly altered their play calling to keep him out of any overly-difficult positions. David Bakhtiari is something different. He’s a guy who can hold down the blind side while you can run long-developing pass routes. Bring Billy Turner back on the right side and you’ve suddenly gone from a bunch of backups to one of the best offensive lines in the league.
That can really open up an offense.
At running back, we know the complementary tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon can do pretty much anything – and the Packers just might need that. If temperatures are in the single digits, the Packers may lean on the run more than usual. Aaron Jones is effective in any weather, but AJ Dillon can have an absolutely soul-crushing effect on defenses in the cold. These two should each get plenty of carries, regardless of the temperature.
But we know that the Packers will pass.
When they do, they’ll have Unanimous First Team All Pro Davante Adams (aka the best receiver in the league), Allen Lazard (who has been coming on strong and looks primed for a big playoff impact), and hopefully a healthy MVS (who opens up the playbook like no other receiver on this team).
But the biggest impact in the passing game might be from the return of Randall Cobb.
His veteran savvy and mental connection with the quarterback put him in a position where he wasn’t always racking up huge numbers, but he was always racking up key plays. He was big on 3rd down conversions and in the red zone, and there’s no reason that he won’t pick up where he left off when he’s healthy for the playoffs.
And the most important piece to this offense…
Four-time All Pro Aaron Rodgers should win the MVP.
I don’t care if other QBs have more volume stats from throwing more passes, this isn’t fantasy football – no quarterback has consistently made amazing throws with so few mistakes as Aaron Rodgers. Even playing through a broken toe, behind a backup line, with receivers in and out of the lineup with injuries, he regularly made breath-taking throws that most other quarterbacks wouldn’t even try (and the ones that would couldn’t dream of being as successful) and came up with signature wins under difficult circumstances against playoff teams.
Now, Aaron Rodgers has a much-healthier supporting cast around him, and it appears his toe is fully healed.
After an offseason of taking grief from the media, and a regular season of listening to non-stop criticism and nonsense, he’s ready to destroy any team that steps in front of him.
OTHER NOTES
The Packers special teams unit, which bounced around from really bad to abjectly terrible for most of the year, seems to have found a groove hovering around average.
Corey Bojorquez was amazing early and has levelled off at really, really good. The field goal unit has worked out a lot of kinks and Mason Crosby hasn’t missed a field goal since the bye. David Moore even looks like he could be a solid punt returner.
In short, special teams might not be bad enough to sink this ship!
How great does that feel?
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Packers have the best odds to win the Super Bowl.
That’s pretty impressive considering it looked like the team was ready to implode in the offseason. In Week 1, they got spanked for three hours in all facets of the game and lost their best pass rusher.
Things looked bleak.
Then, somehow, they just… turned it around.
The Packers won game after game after game. Then, on a short week, missing most of their offensive line and all their top receivers, they traveled west on a Thursday to face the only undefeated team in the league.
And won.
At that moment, I felt there was something special about this team and I said I wouldn’t pick them to lose the rest of the year.
Since then, they lost by six on the road against one of the best teams in the league while playing with their backup quarterback and missing two field goals, they dropped a road division game where they missed a field goal, dropped 6 interceptions, and lost on a last second field goal, and then they lost by 7 in a game where they didn’t try.
They won every other game. They went 5-0 against playoff teams when Aaron Rodgers started.
And they don’t look done.
They won all those games missing tons of key players. Now, they’re pretty much all back. They’re rested and healthy and they have another week of rest and prep time.
This team is special. This is a complete team that is battle-tested, a team that fought through adversity to claw their way to the best record in the league and the only bye in the conference.
This is a veteran group that knows how hard these chances are to come by. And they don’t look ready to waste it.
This is a group that looks ready to strap up and win three more games.
Prediction: The Packers win the whole f#cking thing
Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan’s Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.