The last time the Packers had a bye, it was too early in the year.
They started the 2020 season 4-0, then had a bye on October 11th. They went to Tampa in their first game back, jumping to a 10-0 lead before a hit on Aaron Rodgers and a David Bakhtiari injury sent the offense into a tailspin, ruining the game. In 2019, Matt LaFleur’s first season as the Packers head coach, they traveled to San Francisco immediately following the bye and lost in even more embarrassing fashion.
Matt LaFleur’s Packers have never won after a bye, but more importantly, they’ve never lost after Thanksgiving.
Something’s gotta give and I think that second one is going to win out.
WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL
The Packers defense has exceeded every sane, rational human being’s expectations this year. De’Vondre Campbell has been one of the greatest Cinderalla Stories in the history of Packers free agency and Rasul Douglas in not far behind.
They’ve been missing arguably their two best defenders in Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith (who happen to play the two most critical positions on defense) for most of the season and have somehow produced like a top unit in the league. If these guys return in time to shake the rust off for the playoffs, they will be a squad that can win convincingly on defense alone.
Preston Smith is having a career year in terms of impact and Rashan Gary is establishing himself as one of the most menacing rushers in the league.
On the back end, young cornerbacks are stepping up and playing great, while the best safety duo in the league backs them up and shuts down nearly all attempts at big plays.
Even the role players on the defensive line (arguably the worse unit on the team outside of special teams) have stepped up and have not been a liability.
That’s a complete defense.
As the team gears up for the stretch run, I would expect these guys to simply play better as they continue to gel. Don’t forget most of these guys haven’t played much with each other and they’re still learning a new scheme from their new defensive coordinator.
They seem primed to step up with a very basic scheme. Remember last year when the players called a meeting and basically said “Don’t overcomplicate the plays, just let us go out and do our thing?” That’s what Joe Barry has embraced. The scheme, by NFL standards, is relatively straightforward. The reason no team has really been able to exploit a hole in the scheme like they did in the past is because they aren’t winning on scheme, they’re winning on execution.
These guys are in the right spot and they don’t miss tackles.
They occasionally misplay a chance at an interception, but when Jaire Alexander comes back, they will capitalize on more of those opportunities… and when Za’Darius Smith comes back, there’ll be a lot more opportunities.
When this group gets healthy, they are gonna give teams fits in the playoffs.
The bye is gonna help them get healthy.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Aaron Rodgers has just started to play to form and the results have been scary for opposing defenses.
The running duo of Aaron Jones is AJ Dillon might be the most talented and capable tandem in the league and they give defenses with widely different styles (plus both can work well as receivers).
Davante Adams (who can do anything), MVS (one of the best deep threats in the league), Randall Cobb (who has been an assassin on underneath routes), and Allen Lazard (a big bodied, clutch possession receiver who lays the lumber in the blocking game), form the most diverse receiver group in the league.
Marcedes Lewis (in-line blocking), Josiah Deguara (motion blocking), and Dominique Dafney (utility man) don’t flash in the box score like the receiver group, but they also have a diverse skillset and can all come up with some catches when needed. Deguara, in particular, has started to shine recently as he recovers from his ACL injury.
On the line, the Packers lost All Pro Corey Linsely to free agency, haven’t had All Pro David Bakhtiari all year as he recovers from his ACL injury from last year, and have now lost Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins. But, as a unit, they keep blocking more than good enough for this offense to function. Lucas Patrick has settled in at center, Jon Runyan has built on a promising rookie season, Billy Turner is having a career year, and Yosh Nijman has been an absolute revelation after years of development. The line, somehow, has played well without any of their star power.
This offense has it all.
Look for the Packers to really push the passing attack as the season wears on. As a group of starters, they missed training camp and the preseason and haven’t had a lot of practice recently because of injuries. The run game is humming, and they can lean on that any time they need to, but the passing game needs more work to establish and maintain rhythm and timing to hit on all cylinders in the playoffs.
OTHER NOTES
Look at the starting lineup and add Bakhtiari, Jaire, and Za’Darius – this is a team with no exploitable weakness. The defense can stop anything and the offense can score in any number of ways. Those are signs of a championship team.
Special teams has a great punter and a kicker with a history of success (let’s be positive).
Matt LaFleur and Joe Barry are the best head coach – defensive coordinator combinations the Packers have had in quite some time.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Saints game was basically a 4th week of preseason. Since then, the Packers two losses have been a very close game on the road against a Super Bowl contender while missing Aaron Rodgers and a road division game where they missed a field goal, dropped 6 interceptions, and lost on a last second field goal.
Both of those scenarios are unlikely to play out again, so I think it’s unlikely that the Packers lose again.
This team has overcome incredible odds (literally, they’re 10-2 against the spread) in winning so much despite so many injuries to so many key players. Role players have stepped up, young players have developed, and veterans have played at their highest levels. Pretty much every player on defense is having a career year and the Packers offense is one of the most balanced and diverse attacks in the league. Yes, special teams is an unmitigated disaster, but this team, on the whole, is spectacular.
A signature win on the road on a short week against Arizona, while missing their top 3 receivers, top 2 cornerbacks, best offensive lineman, and best edge rusher (and lost their starting tight end during the game) shows that this team has the potential to win no matter what.
I think they will.
Prediction: Packers finish the season 14-3 and win the Super Bowl.
Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan’s Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.