It wasn’t flashy but the Packers did what they needed to last Sunday and stacked another win against a hapless Vikings squad. This week won’t be so easy, and is much more important. The Lions under Dan Campbell have had the Packers number over the last few years, and now Green Bay has a chance to switch that narrative. It won’t be easy, but here’s what the Packers will need from each phase to come out on top.
The Packers Defense
Like early in the season, the win against Minnesota was powered mainly by a strong showing from the Packers defense. The defensive line in particular controlled the game, sacking JJ McCarthy 5 times. I wouldn’t expect it to be nearly as easy against a proven QB like Jared Goff, but if the Packers are going to win, its going to be in large part because the pass rush doesn’t let Goff get into a rhythm.
This is exactly how Green Bay controlled the first game. They sacked Goff four times and never let him get comfortable, the biggest moment coming right before the half when they picked Goff off. This let Green Bay get a comfortable lead and the pass rush was allowed to continue pinning it’s ears back.
A lot has obviously happened between then and now. Van Ness is injured and may not be able to play, while Micah Parsons played very limited snaps having just arrived. Still overall this defense is set up well to counter what the Lions like to do. They don’t give up explosive plays, and they are excellent at stopping runs to the outside, both are staples of the Lions offense this year and years past. While some of the Lions scheme has changed now with Dan Campbell taking over play calling duties, there’s reason to feel like this is a matchup that the Packers have the advantage on.
The Packers Offense
It’s hard to pull much info from last weeks performance for a number of reasons. First in the extremely conservative play calling. To be clear, unlike weeks past this is not a criticism. The Packers were missing multiple starters on the offense and the QB has a sprained shoulder that is obviously affecting him. Once it became obvious that Minnesota wasn’t going to be able to score I don’t blame LaFleur for protecting his quarterback.
This week that likely won’t be an option. While this Lions team has clearly taken a step back from last years squad, they’re still a team that can score in bunches. If Jayden Reed is finally back I would anticipate the Packers to throw early and often to try and build an early lead. If they can do that then the like I mentioned above, the defense should be set up in a really good spot.
How much the Packers try to lean in on the run game likely depends on Josh Jacobs availability. Given that it was a close call last week, I would expect Jacobs to be on the field. If he is, LaFleur may opt to lean more into the play action game that defined much of the Packers early success this season.
One last thing to keep an eye on is the configuration of the offensive line. Last week it seemed like the Packers finally made a decision at RG. Second round pick Anthony Belton took nearly double the snaps as Jordan Morgan and perhaps not coincidentally, the Packers run game seemed to have new life. I have long believed that Morgan was a tackle or nothing, and maybe the Packers have decided that as well. It will be interesting to see if Belton took the job last week, and we should know fairly early into the game tomorrow if that is the case.
Special Teams
Last week was a strange experience. Special teams made a game shifting play in a positive sense. Additionally not a single kick was missed. While plays like the aforementioned fumble recovery are nice, I would settle simply for the later. In other words, please special teams, just be normal for once.
Final Prediction
Despite the Packers three losses and one tie, there have only been two games this year where I didn’t think that the Packers should absolutely win the game. A few weeks ago against the Eagles, and week one against these Lions. Both teams are not the same squads that they were then, but I still think the Packers have a slight edge as long as they don’t shoot themselves in the foot.
Packers 27 – Lions 24
The post Packers Face Lions In Key NFC North Matchup first appeared on PackersTalk.com Blog Posts and Podcasts.