The Vikings have not decided which quarterback will start against the Packers on Sunday night. One thing is certain: it will not be Kirk Cousins, their franchise quarterback. On paper, most teams would salivate over the chance to play a fifth-round rookie quarterback, or a journeyman playing on his fifth team in six years.
Whether Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall gets the start in Week 17, the Packers’ defense draws a poor matchup against Minnesota.
After allowing Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young to post their best passer ratings of the season in consecutive weeks, the Packers’ defense has an opportunity to redeem themselves. A playoff berth hangs in the balance for both teams. The Packers are also looking to avoid being swept outright by the Minnesota Vikings for the first time since 2017. Pride and playoffs all come into play, but Minnesota is also weighing its options for the future.
Backup quarterbacks, or those who later became backups on their respective teams, have made life difficult for Green Bay this season. The Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccanneers all played and beat the Packers with quarterbacks who have since been benched. The Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay in Week 7, even after losing Cousins to a season-ending injury. After Derek Carr went down, the New Orleans Saints nearly beat the Packers behind Jameis Winston.
This pattern of playing backup quarterbacks, while uncommon, has proved problematic for the Packers. Only against the Los Angeles Rams, who started Brett Rypien, did the Packers have success.
How The Vikings Match Up
Whether it is Hall or Mullens under center, the Packers must be weary of what awaits in Minneapolis. A healthy Justin Jefferson, plus a suspended Jaire Alexander, has the making for another offensive onslaught against the Packers’ defense. Joe Barry is tasked with again slowing down one of the best receivers in the game. In the Vikings’ previous two games, Jefferson has received 20 targets. Jefferson turned those targets into 13 receptions and one touchdown (per ESPN stats). In those two games, Minnesota lost by a combined 9 points. In all but two of Jefferson’s games this season, he has received 9 or more targets. No matter how close the score is, the Vikings quarterback will be looking Jefferson’s way on Sunday.
Close games have become a signature of the Vikings and head coach Kevin O’Connell. Minnesota made history in 2022 by winning all 11 of their one-score games. In 2023, the Vikings have played in 14 one-score games. They have won six of those games. The only game the Vikings have played in 2023 that was decided by more than one score was their Week 7 tilt against the Packers. Recent history suggests that not only will the Vikings play a close game against the Packers, but that Jefferson will be a focal point.
The Backs, Too
Stopping Jefferson is no small task, especially without Alexander. But, there are also signs that point to Minnesota focusing on a different part of their offense against the Packers. Since Cousins went down in Week 7, the Vikings offense has run the ball 30 or more times in five games. Minnesota still ranks 6th worst in the NFL in rushing yards per game, but they could still have an advantage against the Packers. Through sixteen weeks, Green Bay has allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing teams (per ESPN stats).
In recent weeks, the Vikings have gotten Ty Chandler more involved. Against the Bengals in Week 15, Chandler set a career-high in rushing yards. He is also the only Vikings player to log a run over 30 yards this season (per ESPN stats). Chandler’s uptick in usage, plus the explosiveness he provides, could mean a big day against Green Bay.
Even if Minnesota gives reps to multiple quarterbacks throughout the game, there is a strong chance the Vikings offense will stress this reeling Packers defense.
Main Photo: [Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Jornal Sentinel] – USA Today Sports
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