The last time these teams met was in Week 2. The Packers were fresh off their season-opening sleepwalk against New Orleans and, after getting down early and trailing at halftime, woke up on both sides of the ball and outscored Detriot 21-0 in the 2nd half en route to a 35-17 win.
At the time, both teams were 0-1. Things are a lot different now.
The Packers have been on another late season hot streak and have won 5 in a row.
The Lions are a 2-win squad reminiscent of pretty much every other Lions team in recent memory.
A few weeks ago, they beat the Cardinals quite convincingly, showing that they aren’t completely hopeless. Since then, they’ve looked… well, completely hopeless in losing to the Falcons and getting whipped by the Seahawks, who put up 51 points on almost 500 yards of offense.
The Lions would love to beat their rivals (this is their Super Bowl) and end another craptastic season on a high note. But what are the Packers playing for?
There are some achievements in reach, like Davante Adams only needing 22 yards to set the single season record for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers looking to make a final impression on the MVP voters (except for that bum, Hub Arkush, obviously.
Outside of that, these guys are playing for pride.
That could lead to a pretty wide range of outcomes.
WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL
Jared Goff is officially listed as “Questionable,” but head coach Dan Campbell said that he would probably play.
Goff has talent, even if he’s not as good as Matt Stafford. He’s been establishing a strong rapport with rookie receiver Aman Ra-St.Brown, who is putting together a solid rookie season with 82 catches and 803 yards. Tight end TJ Hockenson is the second leading receiver on the team with 61 catches for 583 yards. These two are tied for the team lead with 4 touchdowns.
The passing game is made up of good but not great players. Going up against a great secondary (which, unfortunately, will still be missing Jaire Alexander), I don’t expect them to get much going, even in dome conditions, unless the Packers just start playing like they don’t care. If the Packers are playing a lot of off coverage, Detroit could move the ball in the short passing game. This has really been the strength of their offense and also features running back D’Andre Swift.
Swift and Jamaal Williams, who both average right around 4.0 yards per carry, form a solid running back duo. Neither has been particularly explosive this year, but their are consistent.
Their offense has been pretty unimpressive all year. Outside of their 33 points in a bizarre failed comeback in week 1, they haven’t gotten over 30 points in a game and have been under 18 points in 12 of their 16 games this year.
The Packers have no real excuses for letting the Lions move the ball much except for playing to avoid injury or looking ahead to the playoffs and mentally checking out.
Their defenders match up very well talent wise and scheme wide across the board.
Detroit has also struggled notably in short yardage, which should allow the Packers defense to get ball back without much trouble.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
The big news for the Packers is that David Bakkhtiari and Josh Myers could both come back, generating a big talent infusion into the offense line.
The Packers have been operating with pretty much backups across the board on the offensive line and faring quite well. Bringing these guys back in a game they don’t need to win is a nice tryout to see if they can mesh back into the group and provide a little boost heading into the playoffs.
There is little risk to Aaron Rodgers because 1) it’s the Lions, 2) he knows how to get the ball out quick if he needs to, and 3) the Lions rank 31st in the league in sacks.
Look for Rodgers to find Adams early to make sure he gets the yardage record before they eventually (hopefully) sit down.
When the Packers want to run the ball, they may give Patrick Taylor an extra long look. Aaron Jones is still nursing a sore knee and may not want to risk hurting it further while playing on turf.
If the starters sit down, this might be a great time to see what Jordan Love can really do.
In his only start of the season, the Chiefs blitzed him nonstop, making it tough to get much of a read on him. Not only would I expect the Lions to blitz much less than the Chiefs, I’d expect LaFleur to have a better package ready for Love and I’d expect Love to handle it better without 1st start jitters or any pressure to win the game at all.
OTHER NOTES
Matt LaFleur faces an impossible decision and he said so in his press conference this week. If he plays everyone and someone gets hurt and misses a playoff game, he’s an idiot for letting them out there. If he rests guys and they don’t win in the playoffs, he’s an idiot for letting them get rusty.
All that really matters is how they play in the playoffs.
As much as I want all these guys to just lay in bubble wrap for the next couple of weeks, that’s not realistic or helpful. I’m glad that everyone wants to play because it shows they aren’t scared or hesitant. Still, I’d be thrilled if the starters marched the field for a 7 minute touchdown drive and took the rest of the day off.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This Lions team is feisty and, even when they’re getting blown out, they play hard for Dan Campbell.
I don’t see a scenario where they get demoralized and roll over. I think the Packers will keep them at bay early, then grind them down, maybe with Jordan Love making some plays in the 2nd half. If Goff gets hot, though, they may need their starters to play later to get the win,
I’ll be watching intently just hoping the Packers don’t sustain any more injuries.
With anything possible in this game, I think the more talented and better-coached team gets the win.
Packers 27, Lions 16
Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan’s Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.