WHEN THE BUCCANEERS HAVE THE BALL
The Buccaneers offense is off to a slow start, ranking 13 in rushing yards and 23rd in passing yards.
Still, they’ve managed to grind out enough production to be one of only six 2-0 teams.
They’re dealing with injuries to their offensive line and receivers, but running back Leonard Fournette has been beating up defenses with his punishing style. He’s had over 20 carries each game and figures to be the tone-setter on offense. With temperatures expected in the 80’s, he will surely start working the Packers front 7 early to wear them down. De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker are going to be critical to the defensive outcome today. Kenny Clark’s groin injury, coupled with the heat and humidity, figure to create extra snaps for TJ Slaton (a lifelong Florida resident). Look for a generous line rotation that could give Devonte Wyatt his first extended action of the season.
Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is (deservedly) suspended for this game, while fellow receiver Chris Godwin is out with a hamstring injury. Receivers Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Brashad Perriman are listed as questionable with their own injuries. Scotty Miller looks like their only healthy receiver, and even he missed some practice time with a claf injury this week. The team recently signed Cole Beasley as insurance.
The Saints went man-heavy against the depleted receiver group last week and clamped the Buccaneers offense, who did nothing until some questionable penalties kept their drives moving to pull ahead late.
Green Bay has the defensive backs to copy this game plan against a worn down Bucs receiving corps… if they choose to. Tampa will probably work the short routes and a lot of crossing concepts to wear down the defense before taking their deep shots.
Left tackle Donovan Smith didn’t play last week. His backup, Josh Wells, got hurt and went to IR. Undrafted practice squad promotee Brandon Walton is in line to start is Smith (who is listed as doubtful) can’t return. If that happens, the Packers should mercilessly attack the blind side and expect a lot of the running game to flow to the offense’s right, where stud tackle Tristan Wirfs can open lanes.
Even with the injuries, this offense is capable of getting yards in a number of ways and should not be counted out.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
The Packers offense has not been what we expected it over the first two weeks, either.
AJ Dillon has been doing his job grinding out tough yards while punishing defenses, while Aaron Jones has been a thoroughly dominant weapon en route to averaging over 9 yards per carry. The Packers have rushed for over 300 yards in two games, but a big reason for that (aside from talented running backs) is that teams aren’t putting 8 defenders in the box.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t putting up gaudy numbers, but teams have respected his ability and kept defensive backs deep.
The Buccaneers, even missing defensive line stud Akiem Hicks, have the talent to man up and stop a multi-dimensional offense. Tampa Bay has a top 5 defense in total yards and Vita Vea is of the of the most impactful defensive linemen in the league – he doesn’t get nearly enough credit for all the gameplans he wrecks. Tampa’s strong front, has the ability to neutralize the Packers running attack, even if David Bakhtiari returns. Devin White and Lavonte David are a dynamic inside linebacker duo that has the ability to fill run gaps as effectively as anyone in the league. Marcedes Lewis, who often acts like a 6th offensive lineman, is questionable with a groin injury, which could make things even more difficult.
In the passing game, the Packers, like their opponent, may be scraping the barrel for receivers. Sammy Watkins is out while Christian Watson and Randall Cobb are questionable. Allen Lazard is expected to play, but missed practice time with an ankle injury this week. Overall, it’s bad enough that the Packers signed receiver Travis Fulgham to the practice squad.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers lead the NFL with 10 sacks over the first two games. With the Packers offensive line still coming together and banged up, the passing attack may have to be creative again this week.
So far, the Packers have spread the ball around in the passing game with 6 players getting between 7 and 9 targets to lead the team and 11 players getting at least one target over the 2 games. With injuries lurking and a very tough defense, the Packers may be relying on a lot of short passes and misdirection runs again this week.
OTHER NOTES
It’s expected be in the high 80’s with plenty of humidity at kickoff, which has been historically terrible news for the Packers
With an illness taking its toll on some Packers players, the elements could wear them down more than usual
The Packers special teams have gone two games without anything majorly disastrous happening – Rich Bisaccia seems to be doing a good job
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Buccaneers, like the Packers, don’t appear to have hit stride yet.
Like the Packers, the Buccaneers are also dealing with a ton of injuries.
And of course, both teams still have plenty of talent.
I think this is going to be a close game. Whichever team can get their running game going first in the heat will have a huge advantage. I’m very nervous about picking the Packers to win, but I think they are building early momentum and I expect Matt LaFleur to come into this one with one of his best gameplans so the Packers can win a close one.
Packers 30, Buccaneers 27
Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan’s Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan’s Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.