Before we get to Sunday’s game against the Broncos, lets take a minute to remember something important. The Bears still suck. That being said it wasn’t an easy fight, and the Packers should expect more of the same in two weeks when they visit Soldier Field.
While that matchup is certainly going to be on the minds of both fanbases as the game gets closer, this week for Green Bay won’t be a cakewalk either. The Denver Broncos are currently the top team in the AFC, and they play in a place that has historically been rough for the Packers over the last decade. So what do the Packers need to do to keep their lead in the North intact for the rematch with the Bears?
Keep Love Upright
Jordan Love is a top five quarterback in the league. The step fans hoped he would take last season is a good reminder that player development is not always linear. Love is top 10 or better in essentially every metric used to evaluate the quarterback position right now.
What Love, and the Green Bay offense, has been particularly good at this year is beating man coverage schemes. The Denver Broncos play man at the 6th highest rate in the entire league. While it’s worth noting that not many other teams have a cornerback as good as Patrick Surtain II, this is the type of matchup that has favored Green Bay up to this point. The one time it hasn’t gone well was the Browns game, where the offensive line completely collapsed.
This Packers offensive line is not that one. That offensive line still had an out of position Elgton Jenkins playing center. An unsettled RG spot. And no Zach Tom. With the Jenkins injury, Sean Rhyan has appeared to be an improvement at center. This has allowed the Packers to slot in rookie Anthony Belton at right guard, and while he has a lot of work to do, he seems to have settled in well enough. Combine that with a healthy Tom, and improvement from LG Aaron Banks, the Packers line is playing the best it has all season.
They’re going to need to play their best against a Denver defense that leads the league in sacks by more than ten over the next closest team. If the line can hold up and give Love time, he’s shown that he will carve up the kind of coverages that Denver has been playing all season.
Packers Need To Trust Their Front Four
The Packers defense has been good this year, no question. If there is one thing they occasionally struggle with its letting teams put together extended drives that keeps their offense on the sidelines. So first of all, what they need to do is make sure that the Broncos run game is contained. If they can do that, and put the game in Bo Nix hands, they have a recipe for success.
Bo Nix has had a solid year. One area he’s done very well in is handling the blitz. Only four players have a better EPA vs the blitz than Nix – Love, Maye, Stafford and Prescott. Blitzing Nix is a huge mistake in other words. Against a standard four man rush however? Nix grades out negatively in that same stat and is squarely in the middle of the pack when compared to the rest of the league.
This again is a matchup that seemingly would favor Green Bay. Acquiring Micah Parsons has allowed Jeff Hafley to blitz at one of the lowest rates in the entire league. Only three teams in the league blitz less. Additionally, Hafley has seemingly begun to mix in more of the simulated pressures that the defense did so well last year in the absence of a dominant pass rusher.
Green Bay needs to pressure Nix without sending extra bodies. Get off the field on third down when they need to. Do that and they should be able to keep this Broncos offense contained.
Special Teams. For the Love of God.
I knew asking the special teams for a repeat performance of the Vikings game was a tall order. But please for the love of god stop kicking touchbacks, and also don’t kick it out of bounds. As I ask weekly, please just be normal. Be average. Don’t make the fires worse.
Final Prediction
This Packers team has seemingly found a bit of a groove. This Broncos team has certainly put up wins, but there is something to be said about the quality of those opponents. While I don’t think it will be easy, I think Green Bay is playing the better ball right now.
Packers 21 – Broncos 17
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