NFL Parity is Helping Packers

It seems bizarre that a team with a 5-7 record could still be in the thick of the playoff race.  Welcome to the 2021 NFL season, where it’s impossible to lose enough to be out of it.  As we hit the home stretch, no fewer than seven teams in the NFC have either five or six wins and are wallowing around the .500 mark.  With five games still to play, the division winners have pretty much been decided.  As the bevy of mediocre teams battle it out for the wild card spots, the Green Bay Packers find themselves above the fray, able to focus on a higher goal.  

They have worked hard to position themselves solidly for December and January football. The Packers have grinded out several very close wins to put up a 9-3 record, which places them well to compete for the number one seed, and the exclusive bye that comes with it.  It’s clear now there are going to be just three other competitors for that seeding.  I’m looking at Arizona, Tampa Bay and Dallas.  The Rams and 49ers could climb back into it, but I don’t believe they are consistent enough to pull it off.   

Green Bay has five games remaining.  Three of them are at home.  Only one of them is against a team with a winning record.  They play at Lambeau against the Bears, Browns and Vikings.  They are on the road at Baltimore and Detroit.  They will certainly be favored in four of those contests, and maybe even in the Ravens game as well.  Barring any catastrophic injuries, the Packers are surely capable of running that table.  At the least they should go 4-1.  That would put them at 13-4 for the season.  Will that be good enough? 

Arizona stands a game ahead at 10-2.  They must yet play the Rams and Colts at home, and at Dallas.  They could easily lose two of those games, especially if quarterback Kyler Murray continues to have health issues.  That would put them also at 13-4.  Remember the Packers win the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory (thank you Rasul Douglas).  

The Cowboys are a game behind at 8-4.  Dallas has played a bunch at home thus far.  They are now in the midst of three consecutive road games at New Orleans, Washington and the New York Giants.   Those aren’t great teams, but it’s still tough to win three in a row on the road.  Later they will play at Philadelphia, and at home against Washington and Arizona.  I don’t see them winning enough of those games to overtake Green Bay. 

The team I see as the biggest obstacle to the top seed is the Bucs.  They are even with the Packers, with remaining games at Carolina, and the Jets, combined with home contests against Buffalo, New Orleans and Carolina again.  The Brady bunch is likely to be favored in all of those games.  The Bills are the best bet to put a loss on them, but Buffalo has been inconsistent at best.  Then again, the Bucs are prone to  laying an egg now and then.  They have losses to the Saints and Washington to prove it.   

Even if Green Bay does not finish as the number one seed, they have plenty of things that seem to be lining up for them as we head down the stretch. 

The rest of the NFC North is down.  None of the three teams currently have a winning record.  Normally, one would look at the remaining schedule and see the Packers have three tough divisional games left to play.  Yes, the Bears, Vikings and Lions will be fired up for those games but, despite the loss at Minnesota, Green Bay is decidedly better than all three.  Chicago and Detroit will have little to play for, and the Packers should have plenty of motivation to avenge their earlier loss to the Vikes, who seem to have lost their mojo after a shocking loss to the Lions. 

The Packers should be getting an infusion of top talent at some point down the stretch.  There is hope that David Bakhtiari, Za’darius Smith, Josh Myers and Jaire Alexander can return at some point.  Aaron Jones’ knee injury should get better, as well as Aaron Rodgers’ toe issue.  However, a note of caution here.  It is unrealistic to expect these injured reserve players to jump in and immediately resume playing at their All Pro levels.  We may be a bit disappointed at first, but the hope would be they round into form by playoff time. 

Several players who needed to take the next step and improve rapidly in order for the Packers to contend have done so.  These include Jon Runyan, Yosh Nijman, Dean Lowry, Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage, Eric Stokes and AJ Dillon.  The value of finding De’Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas cannot be overstated.  Preston Smith is having a bounce back year.  This team is showing the depth and poise it will take for a deep run into the post season. 

The stars may be aligning for the Green and Gold.  In a year where there doesn’t seem to be any dominant team in the NFL, somebody has to step forward and grab the ring. 

Why not the Packers?