A big win over the Rams kept the Packers just a half-game back of the top spot in the NFC.
The Green Bay Packers’ loss to the Minnesota Vikings eight days ago dealt a significant blow to their hopes for home-field advantage in the 2021 playoffs, but they bounced back on Sunday. By beating the Los Angeles Rams 36-28, the Packers moved to within a half-game of the idle Arizona Cardinals for the top spot in the NFC with six weeks remaining in the regular season.
Green Bay can now head into its bye week knowing that they will be no more than one game back of the one-seed when they return to the field in two weeks against the Chicago Bears. Those Bears will have a chance to help define the NFC’s playoff picture over the next two weeks, however, as they will travel to play the Cardinals in week 13 before returning to the Midwest to visit the Packers the following Sunday.
However, charging hard behind the Cardinals and Packers are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose comeback win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday improved their record to 8-3. Tampa will likely need to vault a full game ahead of the Packers in order to secure a better seed than Matt LaFleur’s team, however, due to the conference record tiebreaker; all three of the Buccaneers’ losses are in the NFC, while the Packers have only two losses within the conference.
Thus, during the bye, Packers fans will want to cheer for the Bears — yes, the Bears — and the Atlanta Falcons to pull upset victories.
Looking ahead, two major simulation sites have different views of the Packers’ quality of play and therefore their chances at earning the top seed. 538 has the Packers and Cardinals as practically co-favorites for home-field advantage, with their odds being 40% and 39%, respectively and the Buccaneers sitting back at 17%. Football Outsiders, however, takes a much more bullish view of the Bucs due to their DVOA performance and DAVE metric, which they use for future projection; FO has these three teams all within a percent of each other, between 31.1% and 31.8%.
Here are the current playoff standings, with each team’s record and week 13 matchup listed.
Current Playoff Teams
- Arizona Cardinals (9-2, NFC West leaders; Week 13 game vs. Chicago)
- Green Bay Packers (9-3, NFC North leaders; Week 13 BYE)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3, NFC South leaders; Week 13 @ Atlanta)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-4, NFC East leaders; Week 13 @ New Orleans)
- Los Angeles Rams (7-4, Wild Card; Week 13 vs. Jacksonville)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-5, Wild Card; Week 13 @ Seattle)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-6, Wild Card; Week 13 @ Detroit)
Others
T-8. Atlanta Falcons (5-6; Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay)
T-8. New Orleans Saints (5-6; Week 13 vs. Dallas)
T-10. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7; Week 13 @ New York Jets)
T-10. Carolina Panthers (5-7; Week 13 BYE)
12. Washington Football Team (4-6; Monday Night Football @ Seahawks, Week 13 @ Las Vegas)
T-13. New York Giants (4-7; Week 13 @ Miami)
T-13. Chicago Bears (4-7; Week 13 vs. Arizona)
15. Seattle Seahawks (3-7; Monday Night Football vs. Washington, Week 13 vs. San Francisco)
16. Detroit Lions (0-10-1; Week 13 vs. Minnesota)