I sometimes have a draft crush. Years ago I loved Justin Simmons and Lucas Niang as third round picks along with Creed Humphrey in the second round last year. Then again, I really liked Carl Bradford. As an aside, when the Packers not only bypass my crush but also select a different player who plays the exact same position (see Josh Myers instead of Creed Humphrey), I have to summon what maturity I have to give the “wrong” player a fair shake. So far this year, I do not really have a draft crush.
I suppose for a player to truly qualify as a “crush” one should be willing to select him at least a full round or two earlier than where the “pundits” have slotted his value. Back in 2016, there was a lively debate in the comments section over D.J. Reader. I liked Reader in the fifth round while another poster believed that the Packers should select him much earlier. I noticed when Ted Thompson selected Trevor Davis with the 163rd pick while Reader lasted until pick 166.
I didn’t say anything because I had never heard of Trevor Davis. The Packers had selected Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis in 2014 and added Ty Montgomery in 2015, so I spent my time looking at other positions.
Another reason was because the Packers had already selected Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry earlier in the 2016 draft, so ignoring Reader made “sense” in a way. This illustrates a number of adages such as staying true to one’s board versus drafting for need or thinking that having made multiple selections at one position it is time to address other needs.
Most adages have truth to them but it seems like every one has an opposing adage that contradicts the first one. If the Packers select two wide receivers by the end of the second round, should they select a third receiver later? What about a fourth receiver? Surely at some point one reaches overkill, and the team does have other needs at multiple positions. Lazard, Cooper, Cobb, and Amari Rodgers seem like locks, so from a roster construction perspective one might decide that enough is enough. Looking back, I don’t know: Mike Daniels, Clark, Reader, Letroy Guion, and Lowry would have made for a deep defensive line, but they still had Datone Jones, Mike Pennel, along with Price and Ringo who seemed like they perhaps could play in the NFL. Then again, Jones, Pennel and Guion were gone by 2017, which seems like a parallel to this year as some current wide receivers on the team seem likely to be gone in 2023.
The best way to evaluate a draft is to watch film. Most of us do not have time to watch the film on hundreds of players and some of us don’t have the skill to do it. I usually do not do more than watch some film on a bunch of players at positions of need, augmented by combine and pro day results. I can remember in 2014 creating a board of the top ten or fifteen tight ends and safeties (and doing the safeties again in 2019). One problem is that even people who get paid to evaluate prospects disagree about their value, often enough they radically disagree. General Managers who manage to be one to two standard deviations better than their peers at drafting often get in the hall of fame.
Take a look at this link to Jack Lichtenstein’s NFL Consensus Draft Board. It shows how 14 different sites ranked players. I presue that all of these sites watched lots of film. Devonte Wyatt ranges all the way from 11th (The Ringer) to 69th (Walter Football). [Wyatt might be completely off some teams’ boards due to some off-the-field allegations.] TE Jason Wydermyer ranges from 62nd (Draft Buzz) to 283rd (Sports Illustrated). [Some of these sites may have updated their rankings.] Players move up and down, sometimes bases on conversations the authors have had with scouts, by public statements of team officials, (which comes with the caveat that some teams may be putting out misinformation), or because they worked out at a late pro day, and often enough for no apparent reason. I like to use these consensus boards and then cross-check it with the CHTV’s draft guide to see our evaluations and to see if the player is a match for the Packers’ scheme and what the team likes in a prospect.
I also look at when it seems necessary to use higher picks for certain positions. For example, between 2006 and 2018, only 10 centers were selected in the first round and 10 more in the second round. In 12 of those 13 drafts, no more than 2 centers were taken in the first two rounds, and in two seasons no centers were taken until after pick 65. Mike Pouncey was the highest center (picked 15th in 2010) during that time. This seems to me to be a function of positional value. Timo Riske’s graph and table (link below) shows that centers are simply paid the least and thus are not deemed worthy of extremely high picks.
According to this graph by Timo Riske of PFF, centers taken around 15th to 18th have a 30% chance of being elite and a 90% chance of being above average. According to the graph, a center taken 62nd has a 12% chance of being elite, roughly a 35% chance of being a second tier or better player, and almost a 50% chance of being at least average.
A wide receiver taken around 24th has a roughly 37% chance of being elite, perhaps a 67% of being 2nd tier or better and about a 75% chance of being average or better. A receiver taken at the top of the fifth round appears to have a tiny chance at being elite (under 5%), a 10% chance of being a second tier or better player, and a 30% chance of being average or better.
The graph suggests that it is difficult to select elite edge players and safeties, but getting an average or better safety can be done later in the draft.
Mr. Riske also tweeted this surplus value analysis of draft picks taken between 2006 and 2018. Care should be taken be when analyzing this data because some positions seem a little skewed to me due to high miss rates combined with high positional value.
PREDICT THE PICKS:
One of our readers went to NFL.com and put together a group called CHTV Regulators (password GPG) where readers can try to correctly predict the draft order of the players for the first round. Everyone is welcome to participate. It is just for fun, so no prizes are involved. See how you fare against other CHTV readers. Go to the link below and follow the prompts. If you do not have an account with NFL.com, you will have to create one, but it is easy: just a working email, your name and date of birth. Thanks to Birddoguni for setting this up.
https://predictpick.nfl.com/group/3960