Maggie's Pre-Game Six Pack – 2021 Week 12

The 8-3 Green Bay Packers return home this week to face off against the 7-3 Los Angeles Rams. As the Packers limp towards a Week 13 bye, the Rams are coming off a bye of their own in Week 11. Here are six things to keep in mind going into a game with serious tiebreaker implications for the NFC: 

1. Rectifying the Run Defense

The Packers have yet to allow an opposing running back to hit 100 rushing yards this season. Even in the Week 1 blowout, Saints running back Alvin Kamara only rushed for 83 yards. Bears rookie Khalil Herbert got close with 97 yards and a score on the ground, but it’s still an impressive stat for a Packers defense that’s struggled mightily against the run in previous years. 

Rams running back Darrell Henderson will be Green Bay’s next challenge. While he’s yet to eclipse 100 rushing yards in a single game himself this season, he’s averaging an impressive 4.7 yards per carry and has five touchdowns under his belt in nine games.

2. LaFleur on Fire After Thanksgiving 

Matt LaFleur has still yet to lose back-to-back games in the regular season during his tenure with the Packers. A loss this past Sunday against Minnesota puts some pressure on that streak with Green Bay hosting a stout Rams team. What’s perhaps even more impressive is this stat pulled by Daire Carragher, that LaFleur’s Packers are 11-0 after Thanksgiving in the regular season. 

Green Bay will finish off the regular season with four of its final six games at home. Per the dope sheet, this is the second straight year the Packers will finish with four-of-six games at home, but only the fourth time it’s happened since 1940. What’s more, the Packers have won the matchup heading into the bye week in five of the last six seasons. Also per the dope sheet, regardless of Sunday’s outcome, Green Bay will head into the bye with a winning record for the eighth straight season (4-0 in 2020, 8-2 in 2019, 3-2-1 in 2018, 4-3 in 2017, 2-1 in 2016, 6-0 in 2015, 5-3 in 2014).

3. The Best Against the West

When the Packers and Rams face off in Week 12 at Lambeau Field, it will be the first time since Week 13 of the 2014 season (8-3 Packers vs. 9-2 Patriots) that Green Bay has played a game at home in Week 12 or later where both teams have three or fewer losses, per the Elias Sports Bureau. The last time that happened, Green Bay won 26-21 and quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 368 yards with two touchdowns. Davante Adams also hauled in six receptions for 121 yards. 

So far, the Packers are 3-0 against the NFC West this season. In Week 3, the Packers traveled to California to take on the 2-0 49ers. Then in Week 8, Green Bay headed to Arizona to battle the undefeated 7-0 Cardinals. Both games ended as one-score victories for the Packers, with the games decided in the final seconds of regulation. The lopsided three-score victory against a 3-5 Seahawks team is probably the outlier here, as things could come down to the wire against Los Angeles on Sunday, too. 

Still, Green Bay’s track record is pretty impressive against the rest of the NFC West, which is tied with the AFC North for the most wins by a division (24 each) 11 weeks into the 2021 season. Coincidentally, the Packers are also playing the AFC North this season. (Green Bay is 2-0 against the AFC North with games against the Ravens and Browns coming after the bye.)

4. No Longer No. 1

The Packers and Rams are two very different football teams compared to the teams that last met at Lambeau in January for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Just as the Packers have fallen from grace and are no longer the league’s No. 1 offense, the Rams are no longer the league’s top defense, dropping all the way to 15th in points against and allowing an average of 22.7 points per game. For comparison’s sake, Green Bay’s offense is ranked 17th overall in points for and is averaging 22.5 points per game. 

The Rams also have a new defensive coordinator in Raheem Morris, with Brandon Staley leaving to become the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. Worth noting, too, is the departure of Rams assistant head coach and linebackers coach Joe Barry (name sound familiar?). 

In addition to being the league’s 15th ranked defense in points against, the Rams are also 12th in yards allowed, 16th in passing yards allowed, and 11th in rushing yards allowed. LA is giving up an average of 346.9 yards per game, but the team tightens up in the red zone, allowing only a 54.5% success rate good for 11th in the league. 

5. Same Stafford, Different Duds

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has been around the league a long time. Drafted by the Detroit Lions in 2009, Stafford has played the Packers 20 times, with his 21st game happening on Sunday. In his 20 previous games, he holds a 7-13 record, his worst against an NFC North opponent. 

Now with the Rams, Stafford is off to one of his best starts ever, with his team holding a 7-3 record for only the third time in 13-year career. His 67.7% completion percentage and 106.1 quarterback rating through 10 weeks would also be the highest of his career if those numbers held all season. 

In LA, Stafford has found a favorite receiving target in Cooper Kupp. Through 10 games, Kupp has already scored 10 touchdowns, tying his previous career high of 10 scores in 16 games in 2019. He’s also the league leader in yards this season with 1,141 (he’s the only receiver to eclipse 1,000 so far this season) including 17 receptions of 20-plus yards and five receptions of 40 or more yards. The Packers can’t afford to let Stafford and Kupp get comfortable at Lambeau on Sunday. 

6. Are the Rams For Real?

The Rams are an NFL enigma this season. The unit is 7-3 through 10 games but has played only four teams that currently have a winning record. LA’s three drops came against the division rival Cardinals (9-2), the AFC-leading Titans (8-3), and the division rival 49ers (5-5). While they’ve beaten some good teams in the Buccaneers (7-3) and Colts (6-5), they’ve also faced some not-so-tough talent, including a three-week stretch against the Giants (3-7), Lions (0-9-1), and Texans (2-8).

LA hasn’t done well playing from behind this season. And while part of that, of course, is attributed to the fact that the Rams have led in games for much of the season and they simply aren’t trailing often, it’s worth noting that once LA falls behind they’re much more turnover prone. In fact, Stafford has thrown a pick-six in each of his last two games, and both occurred early in the game with the Rams trailing. 

The Rams will head to Lambeau fresh off a bye, but also fresh off a two-game losing streak. They’ll look to snap their streak while Green Bay hopes to avoid the same fate.