Looking to 2023: Packers Can’t Keep Bakhtiari

Yippee, the Packers beat the Bears. If you’d rather have that fleeting satisfaction than a top-10 draft pick, then all we can do to find common ground is to pour each other a beer and toast Christian Watson.

Because that’s the trade-off the Packers made, and appear intent on continuing to make. But there’s nothing to be done now except look ahead. I wrote last week that all that matters is 2023, so how about for the remainder of the year we examine what the front office should and shouldn’t do by position group, with the team’s dire salary-cap situation in mind. 

A lot of questions have been raised over the past several weeks about whether there’s a disconnect between what the coaching staff wants to run on the field and the personnel the front office is providing.

I don’t buy it (and I’m more concerned with the disconnect between the offense Matt LaFleur wants to run and what Aaron Rodgers wants to do.)  

I’m also not in the camp that believes Brian Gutekunst has failed when it comes to roster building. We can all quibble with individual decisions, but no GMs are perfect, and they all whiff on draft picks and player moves every year. With a couple of exceptions, most glaring of which was the Rodgers contract (which was unlikely his decision alone), Gute’s record is solid, from the signing of the Smiths to drafting difference-makers such as Jaire, Rashan Gary, Elgton Jenkins, and the most recent class: Watson, Doubs, Zach Tom, Quay Walker and we’ll see about a couple of others. The team’s problems have been more a function of coaching (special teams and D), and scheme.

It seems clear that the team hopes to go into 2023 with Rodgers and Love again, which means the focus should still be on maximizing the shrinking window of 12’s career. 

The team is currently staring at salary-cap room of $4.2 million, with a whopping 16 unrestricted free agents, so a lot needs to give if the team is going to have the flexibility to fill some key roster holes. 

Let’s start with the offensive line. Tom, a fourth rounder, has been a rookie revelation at left tackle, providing the team with an opportunity to move on from David Bakhtiari, as hard as that would be and as much as it would upset Rodgers. But the savings could be as much as $17 million. Given 69’s injury history, maybe he’d take a big cut to come back and provide depth, but otherwise it is time to move on.

Jenkins seems well-suited at left guard, but is a free agent who has earned a significant payday. It’s going to take some maneuvering to keep him, and it might not be possible. Third rounder Sean Rhyan has been a mysterious non-factor, offering no reason to believe he can step in, meaning the Packers would have to find a journeyman or hope to get lucky in the draft again. 

Center Josh Myers, a draft pick I thought was a mistake given that top center Creed Humphrey was still on the board, is serviceable and could improve. Right Guard Jon Runyan is about the same; serviceable with upside. Both are still on rookie deals. Royce Newman looks like a bust.

Then there is free agent Yosh Nijman, who has settled in and stabilized the right tackle situation. It will cost the team some money to keep him, so it’s unlikely they can keep both Jenkins and Nijman. I think they should, but they are also going to need depth to protect against injury. 

The good news is that the O-line is not the biggest problem facing the team, with a solid, young core that isn’t overly costly. The bad news is there is no depth to speak of, and if Jenkins and Nijman get lured away by money elsewhere, the team is going to have to invest heavily to replace their level of play.

Next week: The skill positions on offense.