Looking ahead to the Packers’ 2025 offensive approach

Looking at offseason moves and reading some tea leaves

A couple of weeks ago, we took at how the Green Bay Packers’ offense operated in 2024 and some of the ways that differed from 2023. It was a fun article to write, but I really only wrote it so I could get to this one. Today, we’re looking at what the 2025 Packers offense may look like. I’m glad to be getting this down in writing because it’s been rattling around in my brain since the draft.

First, a high-level review of what we looked at in that last article. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have been one of the league leaders in the use of condensed formations, with each year seeing the formation width get tighter. They primarily operate out of 11 and 12 personnel, leaning more towards 11 personnel (in 2024, they were in 11 personnel on 67.1% of their plays and 12 personnel on 24.6% of their plays, per SumerSports).

Based on what we’ve seen under LaFleur, it makes sense for that to continue. Since LaFleur was named head coach in 2019, the Packers offense has only landed outside of the top 10 of offensive DVOA once (they were 12th in 2022). They ranked 4th last year. If it ain’t broke, and so on.

Even with that, there are reasons to believe we may see a shift in their offensive approach in 2024. We’ll start with the offensive line.

When they were healthy, the Packers’ preferred offensive line in 2024 was (from left to right), Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Sean Rhyan and Zach Tom. For the moment, let’s assume Walker and Tom are the starting tackles in 2025 and just focus on the interior of the line.

In 2024, the average weight of the interior of the line was 314 pounds. Going into 2025, we know the plan is to have Aaron Banks at left guard and Elgton Jenkins at center. The right guard spot is still up in the air, but I’m assuming they’d prefer Anthony Belton to win that job. If that happens, the average weight of the interior of the line in 2025 would be 324 pounds: a full 10 pounds heavier than 2024.

Beyond the weight, you’ve got dudes in there that can pull effectively in the run game. Of the 2024 group, Jenkins was far and away the best puller in that group. For all his faults in pass protection, Myers could move, but wasn’t always a great blocker in space. Rhyan was merely fine. By moving Jenkins to center and adding Banks and Belton, you’re adding two big boys who can move people in the run game and are effective as pullers.

So, the line goes from “a perfectly fine line who had trouble creating movement at the point of attack” to “hefty line of effective pullers who can create movement at the point of attack.”

Now, to the receivers. The Packers went into 2024 with a promising group of young wide receivers: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath. If we look at it from the point of view of the running game (where LaFleur likes to start the building blocks of his offense), we’ve got a great downfield blocker who excels at cracking linebackers (Watson), a good insert blocker who is a tremendous downfield blocker (Wicks) and a solid, big-body blocker (Heath). The others range from “fine” to “bad”.

As it stands right now, the top 6 2025 receivers would seem to be Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Savion Williams and Mecole Hardman (you could make a case for Melton over Hardman, but they’re roughly the same in terms of what you can expect in the blocking game). I’m assuming Watson will miss at least the beginning of the season.

Once again, in terms of the blocking game, we’ve still got our best downfield blocker (Wicks), but that’s about it. Doubs and Reed will give effort, but they’re not locking anyone down or creating movement outside. They’ll certainly try to crack a linebacker, but it doesn’t go well. Golden and Williams are rookies, and, while you can maybe dream on the blocking of Williams a bit, Golden doesn’t seem like someone who is going to be a great blocker out of the gate. And, unless he’s significantly upgraded his blocking game since he was in Kansas City, Hardman is a non-factor. (I went through 2 years of run-blocking clips from Hardman. 95% of his “run blocking” clips are him running a bubble as part of an RPO, and the other 5% are him either getting driven back or knocked down.)

So, where are the Packers now versus where they were in 2024?

2024 had an offensive line that was fine but couldn’t generate movement, with a couple receivers who could work as legitimate blockers in the run game. 2025 has an offensive line with more heft that can generate movement, with a single wide receiver that can be described as “above average” in the blocking game.

The Packers have operated a specific way under LaFleur, but, with the personnel they have now, I don’t know that operating primarily out of condensed formations make the most sense. If you have receivers who can create advantages for you as blockers close to the formation, condensed formations can work well. If you don’t have at least a couple guys capable of being that, it becomes a little more difficult.

And yes, there has been a rise in the use of 12 personnel across the league (the league average is using 12 personnel on 23.2% of snaps, up from 19.5% in 2022), so maybe the Packers lean into some two-tight-end sets a little more. However, given their investment in the WR room this year and the fact that they don’t have a dependable TE2, leaning into 12 personnel doesn’t seem like the clearest route forward.

So the Packers have big bodies up front, wide receivers who aren’t great blockers and question marks at TE past the TE1 spot.

This isn’t a team that screams “condensed formations” to me. No, this is a team that screams Power Spread.

There are a couple of things you need to really get the Power Spread going. One of them is all the things I described above: the ability to get movement with the run game from the offensive line and TE. If you can do that, you can spread your receivers out. That can give you lighter boxes to run into, while also allowing your receivers to “block” simply by running the boundary defenders away from the line.

The other part you need to truly be effective in the Power Spread world is something we’ve seen glimpses of in Green Bay: a running QB.

Whether you’re running pure QB run, zone read or triple-option, you need a QB who is willing to run and is at least somewhat effective when he does. Out of the spread, you’re moving bodies away from the line and getting lighter boxes. If you have a line capable of creating movement with little (or no) help and a QB who can use his legs, you’ve got numbers up front.

I don’t know if this is the direction the Packers are going, but it seems like it would make a lot of sense given the players they have. It would mark a pretty big departure from how they’ve operated under LaFleur, but the Packers have spread packages as part of their attack. They also have some QB run plays (read option and triple option) in their playbook, but we’ve rarely seen Love pull the ball on those. In 2022, the playbook was dialed back a bit before allowing Love to access everything, and he was injured in 2023, so we haven’t seen him at 100% with access to the full playbook for a full season yet.

Like I said, I don’t know if this is the direction they’re going in 2025, but the selection of Golden in the 1st round got my brain thinking about the type of offense this current personnel would be best suited to run. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be pulling Power Spread plays and drawing them up with the Packers personnel, just to get a feel for how that would look if they end up going that direction.

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Albums listened to: The Smashing Pumpkins – Adore; Ethel Cain – The Preacher’s Daughter; Bruce Springsteen – Nebraska; Hotline TNT – Raspberry Moon; Gileah Taylor – I Call This One; Son of the Velvet Rat – Ghost Ranch