How Packers’ Draft and New Kickoff Rules Intersect

The Packers broke a lot of hearts when they passed on Iowa DB Cooper DeJean in the draft, mine included. So it was particularly intriguing when Brian Gutekunst chose a third safety, Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo, in the fifth round.

Green Bay is no stranger to doubling and even tripling up at a single position to maximize the potential for hitting on at least one in the crapshoot that is the draft. Three wideouts last year and three OLs the year before are testimony to Gutekunst becoming one of the leading practitioners of the strategy. 

Safety was the most glaring need heading into the draft, with Xavier McKinney signed in free agency but little else behind him. With the additions of Javon Bullard from Georgia in the second round, Oregon’s Evan Williams in the fourth and then Oladapo, holdover safeties like Anthony Johnson Jr. and Benny Sapp saw their chances of making the 53 diminish.

But the impact will be felt beyond the remaking of the safety room. Bullard, Williams and Oladapo all have the capability to play nickel (slot) corner, and it’s likely the front office felt a need to upgrade there. Keisean Nixon won the nickel spot pretty much by default, and his performance was merely average, with a PFF grade of 59. 

Nixon’s main value, of course, is as the league’s leading kickoff returner, so his future would seem secure regardless of how things change in the secondary. It’s an interesting assumption, given the new kickoff rules, something that isn’t getting nearly enough attention because they call  for different skill sets in many places. 

To review: The kicker still boots from his own 35, but the kicking team lines up everyone else at the receiving team’s 40. The receiving team’s blockers can line up between their own 35 and 30, though seven of them have to be touching the 35. The receiving team is allowed two return men in the so-called landing zone between the goal line and the 20. 

There are other rules, but the bottom line is that kickoffs will no longer be the chaos of gunners and blockers flying at each other from opposite ends of the field. They will look more like running plays to start, but from a vertically elongated formation with a small gap between the trenches and the return men in shotgun 30 yards deep. Here’s a visualization:

Nixon and Tyreek Hill — among other return men in the league — have expressed excitement at the change, in part because it incentivizes returns over touchbacks. But let’s think about whether what makes them great under the current rules will serve them as well now. 

Nixon is no speed burner, but he has a knack for navigating the madness and anticipating the flow of what’s coming at him, finding open seams and bursting through them. Depending on how the coverage team plays under the new rules, there will likely be more congestion sooner. 

What this could mean — and I acknowledge the speculative nature here — is that yards after contact is going to emerge as an important metric for returners. Traditionally, return men have been DBs more often than not, and they don’t get measured for yards after contact. So figuring this out won’t come from stats. 

But one can imagine a world in which powerful yet quick running backs are looked to more frequently, for their ability to break tackles and drag people for extra yards, in addition to having the speed and moves to make people miss. Someone like, say, Deebo Samuel, who was one of the top yards after contact (per attempt) players in 2022 and 2023 (among those with at least 13 games played). Dontayvion Wicks also did pretty well last season, and Josh Jacobs has also scored highly.

Nixon should, and will, be the first option. And he’s not slight of frame, so he could easily be just as good or better than he’s been. I’m optimistic. A lot will also depend on how well Rich Bisaccia coaches his unit to adapt to the new realities, on both sides of kickoffs. 

But returning will be where Nixon needs to shine, given that it’s likely to be his primary toehold on the roster.