Hello Wisconsin: A Bye Week Breather Before the Sprint to the Finish

I’m not sure I can remember a time where the Packers were in greater need of a bye week than they were coming into this past weekend’s game against the Rams.

The fact that the Packers are 9-3 with tiebreaking victories over two of the top teams in the conference despite all of their injuries is nothing short of miraculous, and it’s due to incredible coaching by Matt LaFleur and his staff. Outside of the team’s dud in the opener, they’ve come ready to play every single week no matter the conditions. 

The win against Los Angeles was massive, and in it the Packers showed they’re capable of being the team that pushes people around rather than being the team that gets pushed around.

Too many times over the years we’ve seen soft Packers teams get exposed when they play real hard-nosed competition. Think about the Packers’ struggles against the Seahawks and 49ers in the early 2010s, or some of the early 2000s Mike Sherman teams.

There’s a physicality and toughness to this iteration of the Packers that we haven’t seen in a while. Some of that is due to new additions like De’Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas, who have brought a lot of fight to this defense. Some of that is due to the rise of players like Rashan Gary and AJ Dillon, athletic freaks and throwback players. Some of that is due to the veteran presence of guys like Adrian Amos and Marcedes Lewis, who lead by example with their own tenacious play. 

But every team gets tired. So this week, the Packers rest.

And then… it’s time to buckle up.

The Packers have five more games in what’s going to be a competitive race for the NFC’s top seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They need a loss from the Cardinals, and could well need to win out given Tampa Bay’s easy remaining schedule (@ATL, BUF, NO, @CAR, @NYJ, CAR). 

The Packers have a tiebreaker over Arizona. They do not play Tampa Bay and thus will not be able to get a head-to-head tiebreaker against them. However, if both teams win out and the Cardinals drop a game, the Packers win the three-way tiebreaker. If both teams win out and the Cardinals drop two games, the Packers get the tiebreaker over the Bucs due to conference record (all of Tampa’s losses are to NFC teams). 

If the Packers absolutely must lose one of their remaining games, it would be in their best interest to lose against either Baltimore or Cleveland, as non-conference losses have the least impact on tiebreakers. They would then need to hope Tampa Bay would also drop one of their remaining games, and that the Cardinals would lose at least two.

Homefield advantage is never a guarantee of anything. We saw that just a year ago. But it certainly makes the road to a Super Bowl a whole lot easier, especially in an era where only one team now gets a first-round bye.

The Packers have earned a restful bye. But there’s still a lot of work left ahead of them. It’s going to be an intense finish to the regular season.

Here’s hoping they can win out and nab that bye.

Wisconsin Beer of the Week

Black Friday is one of the biggest days of the year for breweries. Here in Milwaukee, there are a lot of breweries that released new limited edition brews for Black Friday, but I unfortunately wasn’t able to make it out to any other than my usual stop at 1840. My wife works Black Friday, and with three young kids it’s tough to get out and round up all the beers like I used to.

Of course, I still had some old Lakefront Black Friday beers in the cellar, so I figured I’d crack one out to celebrate a successful Thanksgiving and to watch the first couple episodes of Hawkeye on Disney Plus.

Lakefront Brewery in MIlwaukee is known for its brewery tour, fish fry and cheese curds, but out-of-towners might not be aware of its annual Black Friday tradition that really was ahead of its time as far as breweries go here in Milwaukee. Every year they release one to three new Black Friday beers (generally one main one and a couple variants) and open their doors to the public early in the morning. People begin lining up overnight (often 1 or 2 in the morning) and stay in line all through the night and into the morning, often bringing coolers of rare beers to share with the people in line near them.

It’s a really awesome tradition, and when the weather isn’t awful it’s a memorable way to spend a night.

Anyway, I just so happen to still have three bombers of Lakefront Black Friday beers from recent years. One of these was the 2019 Black Friday barleywine, pictured above.

For the uninitiated, a barleywine is a very complex style of beer with a high alcohol content. Brewers pack more malt into the brew to increase the original gravity, which influences ABV. The result is a sweet, smooth beer with some potency, and some notes similar to what you might find in a wine. You’ll get flavors of caramel, honey, bread, molasses and toffee in most barleywines. They tend to be a clear, dark brown in color, very pleasant to look at.

Lakefront’s tasting notes for this beer referred to it as “a big, chewy Barleywine aged in Bourbon Barrels with notes of caramel, brown sugar, vanilla, almond and oak.” It comes in at a whopping 14.8 percent ABV with a dark copper color and a pleasant 40 IBU (IBU rates bitterness on a scale of 1-100). 

Very enjoyable, and has aged quite well. Wish I had another bottle to crack in a couple years, but that’s how it goes with delicious beers!

Underrated players to this point in the season

There are certain Packers who tend to grab all the most praise online and in the media. You get the skill position players like Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, as well as guys who have more than gotten their due for their work this season, including Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark, De’Vondre Campbell and even Rasul Douglas.

But there are plenty of players on the team that seem not to get the recognition they deserve. A few include:

PRESTON SMITH. Smith has significantly stepped up his game this year from a disappointing 2020 campaign. In the absence of the other Smith brother, he’s been a consistent presence along this defensive front and has been much more successful as a pass rusher this season. Without him the Packers would have had some significant pass rush struggles at times this season.

BILLY TURNER. Turner has been a rare constant along the offensive line this season. He’s played really strong football and should be in consideration for pro bowl or even all pro honors. While most of the rest of the line has either been in flux (LT, LG, C) or just bad (RG), Turner has been consistently solid. He’s earned his paycheck this year and then some.

ADRIAN AMOS. I don’t know how it’s possible for a guy of Amos’s skill to be so perpetually underrated, but once again I feel like nobody’s talking about what he brings to this defense. He’s never afraid to make contact, and is a really strong veteran leader. I really hope the Packers find a way to hold on to him for the long run, because he means so much to this team.

MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING. The Packers’ offense REALLY missed MVS when he was out. With him back to take the top off the defense it opens up so much more for the Packers in the passing game. He’s proven himself to be a critical part of this offense.

Around the NFC North

Here we go once again around the NFC North leading into week 13.

-The CHICAGO BEARS can keep right on winning close games against bad teams if it means they’re going to extend Matt Nagy. They get the pleasure of facing the Packers at Lambeau in primetime coming off a bye and hopefully getting healthier with some reinforcements coming back as well. I’d sure love to see a repeat of that 42-point half from a few years back.

-The DETROIT LIONS came close to taking down the Bears for the win on Thanksgiving but just couldn’t get a stop in the clutch. This team has been close several times this year to a victory but just haven’t been able to seal the deal. I’ve been wondering lately who would be more likely to win in a game against each other: the 2021 Lions or the 2008 Lions. I reserve my right to make a decision until the season is over.

-The MINNESOTA VIKINGS are still in the hunt for the seventh seed in the conference, mostly because after the top 5 seeds there’s basically nobody good in the NFC. But they dealt themselves a big blow to their playoff hopes by crashing and burning against the San Francisco 49ers, who appear to be suddenly coming back to life. The inconsistency of the Vikings is truly something to behold. They looked like a really tough out against (a very undermanned) Green Bay, but they alternate week after week between looking great and looking bad. Best guess at this point is they slip in with about 8 wins and lose right away. Also, according to Gil Brandt: The Vikings are the 22nd team in history to have a 7+ point lead in each of their first 11 games of a season. None of the previous 21 were below .500 at that point.

If a Brady/Belichick Super Bowl happens just blast me into the sun and spare me the drawn-out agony

That’s all.

Enjoy the bye!

Abbreviated column for me this week due to the bye, and thus no prediction also. Hope you’re all able to enjoy some stress-free football this weekend, and hopefully some key losses that help out the Packers!