The former first round pick needs to show real progress or risk being replaced.
The Lukas Van Ness development strategy playbook seemed clear from the moment he was drafted. A promising, athletic rookie, Van Ness would earn playing time slowly, working his way up from behind the edge rushers already ahead of him.
It’s a common-sense approach, and one we’ve seen play out in Green Bay before. Rashan Gary, now the Packers’ top-dog pass rusher, had to wait his turn behind Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and even Kyler Fackrell before he got a chance to spread his wings. As of 2023, he’d play the role of one of the established veterans ahead of Van Ness, along with Preston Smith, funnily enough. J.J. Enagbare, then heading into his second season, seemed primed to play the Fackrell role — a lightly regarded pass rusher who would only nominally be ahead of the promising first-round pick on the depth chart.
The 2023 season played out according to plan. Van Ness was fourth among edge rushers in snaps as a rookie, putting up modest but not spectacular pressure and sack numbers. The stage seemed set for him to leapfrog Enagbare and surpass Preston Smith as the Packers’ second edge rusher in his second season.
Everything seemed to be aligning for Van Ness’s ascension midway through the 2024 season. The Packers traded Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers at the deadline, seemingly clearing the decks for Van Ness to take what appeared to be his rightful place.
Except it didn’t work out that way. Whatever snaps were freed up by Smith’s departure weren’t handed to Van Ness. Instead, Brenton Cox and Arron Mosby got more opportunities and largely delivered. Both Cox and Mosby put interesting reps on tape last year as pass rushers, though their size made them liabilities in the run game.
Now Van Ness heads into his third season with an edge rusher battle on the horizon. Few players on the Packers this year will be as closely monitored as Van Ness, who has this final season to make his case before the Packers make their decision on picking up his fifth-year option.
And as he does so, it’s hard to shake the feeling that the Packers are trying to replace him.
No doubt the Packers want Van Ness to succeed, and I still think he can be a useful player. There’s a role available for a burly edge who’s stout against the run and capable of setting the table for other pass rushers. Plenty of defensive ends have made fine careers out of doing just that, and maybe that’s what the Packers have in mind for Van Ness, who’s certainly strong and fairly competent in run defense.
But that would be a bitter pill to swallow when you’re talking about the 13th overall pick, and if the Packers weren’t concerned about Van Ness’s lack of pass production, they probably wouldn’t have drafted two pass rush-oriented edges in this spring’s draft.
Both Barryn Sorrell and Collin Oliver seem ready-made to fill in the gaps in Van Ness’s game. Sorrell is much more experienced (and productive, for that matter) as a pass rusher than Van Ness was as a rookie, while Oliver seems purpose-built to perform the “bendy if undersized” designated pass rusher role Jeff Hafley’s defense has seemed to be missing. If Van Ness can’t up his game as a pass rusher, the Packers certainly have options to eat into his snap count.
That’s not to say he can’t improve. He’s still a dynamite athlete, one of the very best at his position. He’s still just 23 years old (he turns 24 in July). As raw as he was as a pass rusher coming out of Iowa, it’s certainly possible there’s development still to come, especially now that the Packers have replaced defensive line coach Jason Rebrovich with the well-regarded DeMarcus Covington. Maybe Covington will be able to unlock something in Van Ness that’s been dormant to this point.
In any case, he’s going to be closely watched this season. He has a lot on the line — so do the Packers. And his replacements might already be waiting in the wings.