Green Bay Packers v. Browns: Behind the Numbers

It was another game that was a bit too close for comfort, but ultimately, another win–and at the end of the day, that’s all that matters. The Green Bay Packers are now 12-3 and remain the NFC’s top seed.

 

As we do each week following the Packers game, it’s time to go Behind the Numbers, taking a look at the stats and figures you need to know from Green Bay’s performance. 

This Green Bay Packers defense was coming off their best stretch of football when they were able to shut down three of the NFL’s most talented quarterbacks. Over the span of three games, Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson completed just 56 percent of their passes for a combined 601 yards with four interceptions and one touchdown.

 

However, over the last five games since, the Green Bay defense has been trending downward, allowing 28.8 points per game. There have been more soft coverage in the secondary but also more explosive plays given up, and while the run defense always ranked in the bottom half of the league, it’s becoming more porous. With that said, to Green Bay’s credit, the Packers still get after the quarterback very well and are among the best at forcing turnovers.

 

The advanced metrics such as DVOA have never been too high on the Packers, even at their best, with Green Bay currently ranking 19th against the pass and 25th against the run. As of late, the Packers are playing much closer to those advanced rankings rather than their points per game or total yards allowed averages.

Speaking of the run defense, the Packers really had no answer for Nich Chubb. Prior to the game, I was wondering if Joe Barry would utilize more players closer to the line of scrimmage than what he typically does in an effort to stop Chubb and the Cleveland run game. It turns out he did, but it also turns out that it didn’t matter.

 

The Cleveland offensive line, who was down two starters, by the way, bullied the Green Bay defensive front. Chubb finished the day averaging over 7.0 yards per carry with 126 yards on 17 attempts. As a team, the Browns would average 8.8 yards per attempt on the ground.

The Green Bay Packers offense was able to find some success through the air in the first half, but credit to the Cleveland defense, that became more difficult as the game went on. When it was all said and done, Aaron Rodgers would post just 204 passing yards on 34 attempts and averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt. For some added context, averaging 5.9 yards per pass over the course of the season would rank 30th in the NFL. 

 

Cleveland may rank 15th in points per game allowed and 15th by DVOA, but this is a talented unit front to back.

This Green Bay Packers defense was able to generate four turnovers, and they needed every single one of them to win this game. Had they forced only three — which is still a lot — I’m not so sure that they win this one. 

 

The first three turnovers led to 21 points for the offense. On Green Bay’s other six drives that didn’t begin due to a turnover, they had five punts and a field goal. Then, of course, the final interception put the game away as Cleveland was hanging around midfield and nearing field goal range. 

The Packers actually entered Saturday’s game as one of the more sound tackling defenses in football–a big change from previous years. Take it as you will, but they do rank first in tackling grade from PFF. 

 

However, that wasn’t the case against Cleveland. According to PFF, the Packers would miss nine tackles — the second-most in a game this season — and four of them were forced by Nick Chubb, who entered the game with 51 missed tackles forced, the third most among all running backs. 

One of the key matchups to keep our eyes on was Myles Garrett vs.Yosh Nijman. But just as Nijman has done all season, he held up quite well, allowing only three pressures. Matt LaFleur provided Nijman with some help from the tight ends, and Rodgers got the ball out of his hands quickly, averaging just 2.26 seconds per throw.

 

As a unit, Green Bay gave up only seven pressures, and they didn’t allow a single sack. 

Rasul Douglas leads the Green Bay Packers in interceptions with five, and he didn’t make his debut until Week 6. As Rodgers said following the game, Douglas has “changed our defense,”–and no, that’s not an exaggeration.

 

Of Douglas’ five interceptions, three very well could have determined the outcome of the game. In Arizona, he came away with a second-down interception in the Cardinals’ end zone that secured the win. Against Los Angeles, in a game that Green Bay won by eight, Douglas had a pick-six. And then, just this past Saturday, as the Browns were nearing field goal range, he came away with another turnover. 

 

It’s all speculation, but odds are if Douglas isn’t on the team, Green Bay doesn’t win all three of those games. In fact, you can make a realistic case that the Packers could be 9-6 if they didn’t have Douglas at cornerback.  

Against a Browns defensive front that ranked in the top-10 in yards per rush allowed, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon were able to find quite a bit of success on the ground. Combined, they rushed for 107 yards on 21 carries and averaged just over 5.0 yards per rush. As the offense struggled to move the ball in the second half, giving those two a few more opportunities may not have been a bad idea.

A big difference in this game and a reason why it was kept so close was that Cleveland was really good at extending their offensive possessions, while the Green Bay Packers were not. The Browns finished the game 8/13 on third and fourth down opportunities, and the Packers were just 4/11.