ESPN claims the Packers are the biggest ‘faller’ in the NFL this offseason

Green Bay fell more in ESPN’s Football Power Index than any other NFL team this offseason

ESPN utilizes a series of advanced statistics to power rank its football teams. If you’ve ever followed the college football playoff race and ESPN’s playoff reveal coverage, you’ve almost certainly heard of Football Power Index or FPI, their flagship number for how they rank these squads.

At the moment, the Green Bay Packers have a preseason FPI of +2.3, which ranks them eighth in the NFL. For reference, the top team in the NFL, per this number, is the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles at +5.5, and the worst club going into 2025 is the New Orleans Saints with a -5.2 mark.

Here’s how ESPN explains FPI:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

In essence, think of FPI as a way to reverse engineer a point spread. If the Packers (+2.3) were to play the Eagles (+5.5) then the Eagles would be favored, according to FPI, by 3.2 points on a neutral field. This process, obviously, wouldn’t put much weight into individual matchups or how personnel/scheme would clash, but it’s a good baseline number to look at entering the season.

Interestingly, the Packers actually tumbled way down the rankings, relative to last season, despite being ranked as the eighth-best team in the NFL. In the final FPI rankings of the 2024 season, Green Bay was neck and neck with Philadelphia. Since the start of the offseason, the Packers’ FPI has dropped about four points, the most in the league — a slight lead over the rebuilding New York Jets.

To say the least, ESPN’s numbers haven’t been big fans of what Green Bay has done in free agency and the draft this year. As a reminder, the Packers’ big free agency signings were left guard Aaron Banks and cornerback Nate Hobbs, who projects to play the slot should Jaire Alexander ever return to the team. In the draft, the biggest contributor should be first-round receiver Matthew Golden, as it’s likely that the team’s other top-100 selections — offensive lineman Anthony Belton and receiver Savion Williams — will either be reserves or rotational players as rookies.