The Packers will have to comply with the 2022 salary cap by 4:00 PM on March 16, 2022. The exact amount of the salary cap is unknown but it is expected to reach the $208.2M maximum previously agreed to by the NFL and the Union, according to Overthecap. The Packers have 38 players under contract at present for 2022, plus 4 more with void years but significant cap hits. Those liabilities total $250.91M, leaving the Packers $42.71M over the salary cap limit. The Packers already have a dead money charge of $649,918, primarily for Van Lanen, Sternberger, and Kamal Martin, bringing the deficit to $43.36M.
Aaron Rodgers cannot be traded until after the new league starts per league rules. For purposes of initially meeting the salary cap under the trade scenario, Rodgers’ projected cap relief is ZERO. The Packers should receive $19.27M in cap relief when Rodgers is traded, but not until March 17. That is useful: it can be used to pay for the draft picks, the practice squad, the 52nd and 53rd contracts, and to provide some cushion to operate during the 2022 season. Those items usually total about $9M, leaving $10.3M or so to spend on free agents, whether the free agents come from outside the organization or are the team’s own players it released prior to the new league year with a handshake deal in place for 2022.
I suppose if the Packers have reached an agreement with another team to trade Rodgers and Rodgers has agreed on the terms of a new contract with the acquiring team, Rodgers could agree to alter his contract to help the Packers. He could agree to a pay cut, or agree to lower his base salary in exchange for a guaranteed roster bonus in 2023. I cannot remember any player doing something like that, and I am not at all sure that such a contract change would be approved by the commissioner.
I have no idea whether there is any chance of Rodgers and the Packers committing to each other long term. For the sake of brevity, I do not want to suggest what the terms might be. However, it should be possible for the Packers to get $15M to $21M in cap relief prior to the start of the new league year under a re-negotiated contract. That scenario is the one that allows the Packers to keep more of the team intact.
Table I
| A | B | |||||
| Player | Cap # | SAVE | # | Player | Cap # | SAVE |
| Z. Smith | 28.13M | 15.75M | 1 | Bakh | 22.768M | (3.356M) |
| P. Smith | 19.75M | 12.50M | 2 | Jones | 9.00M | (0.750M) |
| Cobb | 9.641M | 6.858M | 3 | Alexander | 13.294M | 0M |
| Clark | 20.65M | 5.65M | 4 | Gary | 5.051M | 0M |
| Amos | 11.982M | 4.654M | 5 | Savage | 3.982M | 0M |
| Lowry | 7.922M | 3.934M | 6 | Love | 3.377M | (3.94M) |
| Turner | 8.99M | 3.18M | 7 | Stokes | 2.71M | (6.955M) |
| Lewis | 4.525M | 2.445M | 8 | Dillon | 1.441M | 0.739M |
| Crosby | 4.735M | 2.395M | 9 | Deguara | 1.217M | 0.783M |
| SUBTOTAL | 57.366 | 10 | Myers | 1.268M | (0.709M) | |
| Jenkins | 2.158M | 1.419M | 11 | Am Rodgers | 1.113M | 0.421M |
| Summers | 0.989M | 0.965M | 12 | Runyan | 0.938M | 0.851M |
| Braden | 0.965M | 0.965M | 13 | Scott | 0.916M | 0.874M |
| Keke | 1.043M | 0.965M | 14 | Garvin | 0.915M | 0.875M |
| T. Davis | 0.895M | 0.895M | 15 | Newman | 0.950M | 0.875M |
| Hill | 0.845M | 0.785M | 16 | Slaton | 0.895M | 0.685M |
| P. Taylor | 0.825M | 0.825M | 17 | Jean-Charles | 0.885M | 0.705M |
| Wirtel | 0.825M | 0.825M | 18 | Mcduffie | 0.858M | 0.760M |
| Gileai | 0.825M | 0.825M | 19 | Heflin | 0.827M | 0.823M |
| A Rodgers | 46.144M | 19.297M | 20 | |||
| King | 3.00M | (3.00M) | Sullivan | 0.970M | (0.970M) | |
| Tonyan | 1.88M | (1.88M) | Campbell | 0.808M | (0.808M) | |
* Per Overthecap.
The contracts of King, Tonyan, Sullivan and Campbell expire automatically at the end of the 2021 season, so they will not count as players under contract in 2022 for purposes of the Rule of 51. Their scheduled cap numbers move to the dead money category and count against the 2022 cap that way.
The Rule of 51 is in place from March 16 until early September. Under that rule, the top 51 active contracts count against the salary cap. The Packers will have 51 players under contract for 2022 when they start to sign players to “Futures” contracts after the season but before the start of the 2022 season. That means there will be 13 more players who count against the cap. Some will sign for the 2022 minimum of $705K but some will cost more. It seems likely that most of those players will come from the current practice squad and from the team’s UFAs and RFAs. Those include the following:
Table 2
| UFAs | RFAs | ERFA |
| Davante Adams | Yosh Nijman 3.93M | Kryss Barnes 895K |
| DeVondre Campbell | Allen Lazard 2.396M | D. Dafney 895K |
| Valdes-Scantling | E. St. Brown (UFA instead?) | Henry Black 895K |
| Robert Tonyan | Malik Taylor 895K | |
| Corey Bojorquez | C. Rivers 825K | |
| Rasul Douglas | L. Hamilton 825K | |
| Tyler Lancaster | ||
| Lucas Patrick | ||
| Chandon Sullivan | ||
| Whitney Mercilus | ||
| Dennis Kelly | ||
| Kevin King | ||
| Oren Burks | ||
| Isaac Yiadom | ||
| Randy Ramsey |
I am going to assume that the Packers issue qualified contracts to the six ERFAs at a cost of $5.23M, and tender Nijman at the second round level, which OTC estimates will be $3.93M. I suspect the Packers will repeat what they did with Tonyan and pay Nijman the minimum of $0.965M and pay the rest as a signing bonus while adding four void years. That would reduce his 2022 cap number to $1.558M and push $2.372M into 2023. The cap numbers for the ERFAs and Tonyan would thus total $6.788M. The other six roster spots for now I assume will cost the NFL minimum or $705K, or $4.23M more. That totals $11.018M to reach 51 players. That number ($11.018M) plus the $43.36M number from the first paragraph totals $54.378M in necessary trims. [Strictly speaking, this number is too low. The NFL will assess a mandatory offseason workout charge: for 2021, the charge was $792K. Per Ken Ingalls, the Packers actually ended up paying out $535K to players for working out, not including players who had workout bonuses in their contracts.]
If the Packers released players 1A to 9A in the first table, the cap savings would total $57.366M, which just covers the $54.378M in necessary trims. That’s ugly (and no, I do not propose releasing Kenny Clark). What it means is that every player on a second contract who is not released will have their contract renegotiated again to push cap into 2023 and beyond, and possibly one or two players on first contracts. I also suspect that the Packers will resort to splitting signing bonuses between a 2022 signing bonus and an option bonuses in the 2023 league year to keep the signing bonuses down in 2022.
To do this properly, I would have to look at each player’s contract and situation, then make a value judgment and construct an appropriate contract. I will do something like that more briefly here.
Save $7.26M to $9.6M – Jaire Alexander. Assuming he returns and looks healthy, give him Jalen Ramsey money (5yr/$100M – SB of $25M). Alexander is due $13.294 in cash on his 5th year option. A $5M proration plus the minimum of $1.035M base salary and saves $7.26M. The Packers probably need more savings. Pay Alexander his 2022 cash by way of a $12M signing bonus and $1.294M in base for a charge of $3.694M (proration of $2.4M plus $1.294M base). The savings would be $9.6M. Pay Alexander a guaranteed roster bonus (or option bonus) of $25M or a little more for inflation plus a base salary for 2023. Some or all of the roster bonus likely will be converted to a signing bonus in 2023.
$2.5M – Aaron Jones. Convert his $3.75M roster bonus to a signing bonus. This reduces his cap savings in 2023 from $12.5M to $10M. The team could get $3M if necessary.
$5.5M – Adrian Amos. Convert his base to a signing bonus and tack on four years. Age 29 in 2022.
$15.75M – ZaDarius Smith. I previously had him pegged for an extension, but back surgeries scare me. The Packers know more about his health, but since I have no information about his surgery, I am listing him as a release.
$18.812M – Release Lowry, Turner, Crosby, Lewis and Cobb. Slaton and Keke will replace Lowry. Nijman will replace Turner. The Packers will have to find another kicker. Perhaps Kaufusi can replace Lewis. Getting low on wide receivers if Adams cannot be signed and since I did not tender Lazard.
$9.182M – Preston Smith extension. The Packers need two OLBs since ZaDarius should be released. Difficult decisions.
$61.344M Subtotal cleared. Really just $57.114M or so because by releasing 6 players on the roster, six more players making at least $705K each will be added under the rule of 51. That would be $2.736M more than necessary.
There are still a lot of moving parts. Elgton Jenkins has earned a Level 3 raise that is not reflected in the table above from OTC under the PPE provision in the CBA since he was named as a pro bowler on the original ballot in 2020. The increase should be about $2.5M. Kingsley Keke is on track to earn a Level 1 raise of $1.43M if he plays at least 35% of possible snaps in two of his first three years. He played 40.4% in 2020 and so far has played 40.5% of possible snaps in 2021. He will have to stay healthy and continue to receive snaps to earn the raise. Those two raises would require the Packers to find about $4M more in cap space. This OTC article explains the PPE provision. The Packers would be $1.276M short of what is necessary.
$??? – Clark and Bakhtiari. The Packers could adjust the contracts of Bakhtiari, who is scheduled to receive $14M in cash for 2022, and Clark, who is scheduled to earn $15.65M in cash in 2022. I am reluctant to push more of their cap charges down the road, but for our purposes today, I am just going to assume the Packers got at least $1.276M in savings from them, or the rollover might suffice (see below). They could even grab $1.3M from Gary, though I do not like renegotiating a rookie deal after just three years.
Per OTC, the Packers do have $4.6M (I think closer to $4M) in cap space at present, some of which should get rolled over into 2022. There are moving parts there as well since the Packers will have to tally up the net for game active bonuses and pay incentives. Preston Smith has 5 sacks and is on pace for 7.1 sacks. He earns a $500K incentive with one more sack (his 6th sack, that is) and $1.25M if he reaches 8 sacks. Aaron Rodgers has a slew of incentives that could reach $1M if the defense and/or STs score three touchdowns (currently at one TD). There are other players with possible incentives.
When the trade of Rodgers becomes official, the Packers should get $19.27M in cap relief, with about $10.3M of that being spendable. There is a long list of UFAs in Table 2 that the Packers surely would like to retain: Adams, Campbell, Valdes-Scantling, Bojorquez, Lazard, and probably Tonyan, plus smaller deals for Lancaster, Sullivan and, less likely, Lucas Patrick. The Packers could probably sign Adams with the $10.3M but no one else of significance. Perhaps they could sign Campbell, MVS and Bojorquez with that amount.
If Aaron Rodgers signs a long-term deal with the Packers and the team decides to go all-in or really all-in, the Packers could get $10.65M in cap relief from Clark on a max restructure with void years and $7.6M from Bakhtiari just by converting his roster bonus to a signing bonus, per Ken Ingalls, or more by converting his roster bonus and some of his base salary. The Packers could probably keep Adams and most of their own players with that drastic maneuver. The Packers have gone as low as 35% to 40% of a player’s AAV in the past as a first year cap number. I do not know what DeVondre Campbell will command in free agency. He is something of a one-year wonder. If he gets $9M AAV, the Packers might structure his contract to have a $4.5M 2022 cap number, for example. Valdes-Scantling might have a $3.2M first year hit and Bojorquez around $2M. The net spendable ($10.3M) probably covers those three players, unless there is a bidding war.
There is nothing worse than being a bad to mediocre team (6 to 8 wins) with no cap space. If Rodgers is traded, the team should probably release Preston and ZaDarius Smith, Cobb, Lowry, Crosby, Lewis, Amos, and Turner (everyone in Table I 1A to 9A except Clark) to get $51.716M in cap relief. Since more is still needed, extend Alexander to save about $6M more. If one thinks it makes independent sense for the Packers to extend Preston Smith and/or Amos (Turner will be 32, so I am reluctant to extend him) to gain cap space, perhaps the team could keep a few more players (in addition to MVS, Bojorquez and Campbell from the $10.3M spendable part of Rodgers’ cap relief). Perhaps that would include Lazard, Sullivan, Lancaster, and/or Tonyan (whose market value is unclear to me due to his injury).