Can Preston Smith Bounce Back in 2021?

The Green Bay Packers defense needs an effective pass rush if they hope to be contenders again in 2021.

In 2019, Green Bay had one of the top pass rushing units in the league. Both Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith had double-digit sack campaigns and the Packers were among the league leaders in pressures and quarterback hits.

But in 2020, the pass rush fell off a bit. Za’Darius Smith was good but not quite as dominant as he was the previous season while Preston Smith’s statistics fell off considerably. The former Mississippi State star recorded only four sacks in 2020 after career-high 12 the previous season. His pressures also went down from 34 to 16 and his quarterback hits fell from 23 to 11.

During the offseason, there were rumors that the Pack might release Preston Smith to free up cap space, but instead GM Brian Gutekunst restructured Preston Smith’s contract. The Packers added voidable years and essentially made his deal a one-year contract with lots of incentives based on sacks and other statistics.

We know that Za’Darius Smith will be the Packers top edge rusher entering training camp and that former first-round pick Rashan Gary is improving and should see an expanded role in the defense. So where does that leave Preston?

Well, there are several reasons for hope. One factor that caused Preston to have an off year in 2020 was that he reported to training camp noticeably heavier than he was the previous season. It took him most of the season to get back into shape and his play did pick up late in the year.

At OTAs last month, Preston clearly was in better shape and had shed a few pounds over his 2020 playing weight. It appeared that he has dedicated himself to being ready to play at his best this year.

Preston also has a battle on his hands with Rashan Gary for playing time. Last year, his play picked up when Gary was inserted as the starter ahead of him late in the season. The competition and threat to his starting spot seemed to inspire Preston to pick up his game.  That competition will continue this season.

In addition, the revisions to Preston’s contract should keep him hungry. He knows his ultimate compensation is tied to his performance on the field. If he meets his incentives, he can make almost as much money as he was scheduled to make prior to the changes to his deal. But if he struggles again in 2021, he will earn less money.

Because of the voidable years on this revised contract, Preston is also playing for his future. The Packers will not bring him back in 2022 if he doesn’t perform this season. In addition, if he struggles on the field, he will have a tougher time signing with another team if the Packers don’t re-sign him. If he does find another deal, it will be for less money than he would earn if he played well during this season.

There is one more pattern worth mentioning when discussing Preston Smith’s NFL career. He has consistently performed better in odd-numbered seasons than he has in even numbered years. In 2015, he had eight sacks, a number he matched two-years later in 2017. In 2019, his first year in Green Bay, he had a career-high 12 sacks.

Meanwhile, in 2016, Preston managed only 4.5 sacks and he fell to four sacks in both 2018 and 2020 despite playing in all 16 games each of those years. If the pattern holds, Preston is due for another productive year in 2021.

Preston Smith also has an advantage over some of his teammates in that he played two seasons under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. When Preston was with Washington in his first two NFL seasons, Barry was the team’s defensive coordinator. While the scheme will not be identical, Preston is familiar with the way Barry conducts practices and what he expects from his players. This could allow him to hit the ground running in training camp as Barry installs his defense after taking over for Mike Pettine.

The old expression in the NFL is that you can’t have enough pass rushers. On paper, the Packers have several players who can get to the passer. In addition to Za’Darius Smith, Gary and Preston Smith, the Packers will be looking at Kingsley Keke to take a step forward in his third NFL season and for interior lineman Kenny Clark to stay healthy and return to his 2019 form.

Getting Preston Smith back to or even close to the level he was playing at two years ago could be a big plus for the Packers. The opportunity is clearly there for Preston Smith. Now he needs to take advantage of it.