Aaron Rodgers & Offense Starting to Find Downfield Groove

It felt like it was just a matter of time, right? 

 

As always, there are a number of reasons why this 2021 Green Bay Packers offense isn’t nearly as potent as the 2020 version. But one big contributor has been the team’s inability to consistently hit the big play downfield–although it’s not for lack of trying.

 

Aaron Rodgers, whose career has been defined by big plays and pinpoint accuracy, had really been struggling to connect on the deep ball this season.

 

Pro Football Focus tracks how a quarterback performs on deep passes–or passes that travel at least 20 yards through the air. During the Packers’ first 10 games of the season, despite Rodgers ranking eighth out of 36 eligible quarterbacks in deep attempts, he also ranked 31st in completion percentage, 33rd in passer rating, and 13th in yards.

 

And as a whole, at that point in the season, the Green Bay Packers offense ranked 13th in explosive pass play rate, according to Sharp Football.

 

Now, again, there are a number of reasons that could be contributing to this lack of success, but not having Marquez Valdes-Scantling from Weeks 4 through 8 certainly didn’t help. With his 4.37 speed, there isn’t another receiver on the roster who can take the tops off defenses quite like MVS can, as evidenced by his 20.4 yards per catch a season ago.

 

The Green Bay Packers are also seeing a lot of cover-2 shells this season after the New Orleans Saints found a lot of success against them Week 1 using this strategy. One of the benefits of utilizing cover-2 is that with the safety help over the top, it’s supposed to greatly reduce the offense’s ability to hit those shot plays downfield.

 

“83 has been hurt,” Rodgers said following the win in Chicago via Packers Wire. “That definitely is a big part of it. We haven’t had a ton of that stuff in the plan. Also, we’ve seen a lot of Cover-2. With 83 not playing, and them clouding Davante a bunch, we just haven’t had the same opportunities.”

 

On top of that, there were several occasions during the first 10 games where Rodgers was just trying to force the ball downfield instead of letting those opportunities develop on their own. Not to mention that the offensive line protection just hasn’t been as stout as it was a season ago.

 

In an article by Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, he also notes that some of the play-calling hasn’t done this Green Bay offense any favors either when it comes to downfield throws.

 

“What I don’t see on most of Rodgers’ deep passes this season are the kinds of route concepts that present easy openings. There’s a lot of iso stuff downfield that can be easily matched by better defenders. 

 

“In addition, the Packers’ increased use of empty sets have reduced their percentage of concepts designed for easy receiver openings.”

 

But over the last two games, or more specifically the last six quarters of football, we’ve seen Rodgers and this offense start to find their groove with the deep ball–which as I mentioned in the beginning, was just a matter of time, right? I mean, he is Aaron Rodgers, after all. 

 

In Weeks 11 and 12, Rodgers is first among 30 eligible quarterbacks in attempts with 12, first in completions with six, second in deep-ball passing yards, fourth in yards per attempt, and second in passer rating. Green Bay has also jumped from 13th to 8th in explosive pass play rates with their recent downfield surge. 

 

While this is certainly a small sample size, with Rodgers’ track record, I tend to believe that this is him and the offense getting back on track, rather than a hot streak that will come to an end sometime–although we will have to wait and see.

 

Coming off the reserve/COVID list there was certainly some rust that Rodgers needed to shake off, and the overall lack of practice time for this offense over the last five weeks has not helped things either–but heading into the bye week, it is beginning to look like this unit was finding their stride. 

 

“If you trace it back, I mean, shoot, we haven’t really practiced a whole bunch,” LaFleur said following a 17-0 victory over the Seattle Seahawks via SI. “Basically, the week before Arizona was all walk-through, so it’s not like he was getting a ton of time with these guys, and then we had different receivers the last time he played. And then you’re getting all these guys back [while Rodgers was out with COVID] so, naturally, there was probably a little bit of a dip in terms of from our passing game, but I think it’s everybody.

 

“We’ve got to get back out on the practice field. We need those guys to continue to work on the timing portion, making sure that the details of our route depths and our assignments are on point because, I think right now if you just look at as a whole, there is opportunity out there for us.”

 

For this Green Bay Packers offense to truly be at their best, opposing defenses need to respect their willingness to take those downfield shots, but Rodgers and his receivers also need to connect on them more frequently than what they were. Over these final five games of the regular season, this is one of the more important items to keep our eyes on.