It’s Thanksgiving Day and Packers game day all in one – what could be better? The Packers will face the Lions this afternoon, a game that carries massive implications in the battle for the NFC North. Green Bay already beat Detroit once this season, winning a Week 1 matchup 27-13. The Packers are currently 2-0 in the division, and a win today would set them up well for the final stretch run.
Green Bay and Detroit both look very different from their first showdown this season. Both teams have lengthy injury reports filled with key contributors. The Lions have a new offensive play caller in Dan Campbell. The Packers have a fully up-to-speed Micah Parsons. It won’t be the same matchup as Week 1, but there are several areas where the Packers can leverage to their advantage.
The Packers have an excellent opportunity ahead of them. If the Packers beat the Lions this afternoon, it won’t be because they just know how to perform on Thanksgiving Day and the Lions don’t. It will be because they hold advantages in three key areas: an improved offensive line, more rest, and limiting explosive plays.
Improvement on the Offensive Line
The offensive line has been a concern all season. The Packers have had to move guys around to different positions, trying to find solutions. Despite the inconsistency, it seems they are starting to find their groove. It hasn’t been perfect, but it’s certainly been better, and it’s coming from some unassuming candidates.
Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom, the bookends to the Packers’ offensive line, have performed admirably this season. Tom has only allowed 12 pressures this season, and still hasn’t allowed a sack. Tom’s pass block efficiency is 97.7. He’s also only been called for one penalty. Walker has allowed 26 pressures and four sacks, but he’s also played 200 more snaps than Tom. His pass block efficiency is 96.0. They’ve been the only two pillars on the offensive line.
Aaron Banks didn’t have the start in Green Bay that many, including himself, were hoping for. Dating back to training camp, he’s been battling a myriad of injuries all over his body. The Packers gave him a four-year, $77 million contract in free agency to be a quality starting guard for the Packers’ offensive line unit. Now that he begins to get healthier, he’s starting to play better. He still has plenty of room for improvement, but it’s a step in the right direction.
When Elgton Jenkins went down with a leg fracture, the Packers were forced to move Sean Rhyan over to center. Rhyan, who has spent most of his career taking reps as a guard, was losing playing time to Jordan Morgan. The injury gave Rhyan a new chance, and while it hasn’t been perfect, it also hasn’t been much of a dropoff.
Jordan Morgan was seeing more and more snaps at right guard. When Rhyan moved to center, it was expected that Morgan would be the primary right guard moving forward. But not so fast. Against Minnesota, it wasn’t Morgan taking the majority of snaps – it was rookie Anthony Belton. Belton recorded 45 snaps, and his performance was encouraging. Many expected Belton to become a guard at the NFL level, and it certainly appears like he’s starting to settle into it now.
Another recent development in Green Bay’s offense is the use of formations with six offensive linemen, usually referred to as 611, 612, or 610 personnel packages. The Packers have been using backup Darian Kinnard in these packages, and they’ve been successful with it. It’s created better protection in pass protection and movement in the run game. Without Tucker Kraft, the Packers will likely continue to use these packages.
A Rest Advantage
Playing on Thanksgiving Day can have its perks, but it’s never ideal to have to play on a short week. Both the Lions and Packers last played at home last Sunday. Both games took place at the same time, giving both teams the same amount of rest before today’s game. On paper, it seems that Green Bay and Detroit had the same amount of time to rest and recover. While partially true, the Packers still definitely have an edge in this area.
Green Bay is coming off a fairly stress-free victory. The Packers’ offense dominated the time of possession 37:15-22:45, but only ran 65 plays. They dictated the style and pace of the game by recording 42 rush attempts. Matt LaFleur took the air out of the ball, made the game as fast, but risk-free as possible, and kept his defense on the sideline. The Green Bay defense only had to play 44 snaps, which is the lowest total of the season by far. That’s about as rested as a team can be on a short week.
The Lions had a much different game on Sunday. They were playing from behind the whole day and needed an overtime period to earn a victory. The Giants’ offense controlled the ball for the majority of the game. The Detroit defense was on the field for 77 plays, over 30 more than the Packers.
When comparing some of the key players in this matchup, the rest advantage still favors Green Bay. Jordan Love threw 21 times and was sacked once; Jared Goff threw 42 times and was sacked three times. Josh Jacobs had 10 days of rest after missing Sunday’s game, whereas Jahmyr Gibbs touched the ball 26 times. Micah Parsons only played 40 snaps (23 pass rush snaps), while Aiden Hutchinson played 77 snaps (42 pass rush snaps). Green Bay’s key players should be better recovered and rested.
Limiting Explosive Plays
It can be frustrating watching teams dink and dunk their way up and down the field, but the Packers’ defensive philosophy is to limit explosive plays against them. “I get they’re catching a lot of short passes. I get that, but if you don’t catch explosive passes, you can’t win football games,” Hafley said earlier this season. “And they’re not doing that against us right now.”
Explosive plays are defined as plays that gain a large chunk of yards, typically passing plays that gain 20+ yards or rushing plays that gain 10+ yards. Green Bay’s defense has been excellent at limiting explosive plays. The Packers are only allowing explosive plays at a rate of 5.07%, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the league. That number is slightly higher on the road (6.65%), but it’s still one of the best clips in the league.
Detroit has a very explosive offense. In fact, they are one of the best offenses in the league at generating explosive plays. They generate explosive plays on 9.72% of their offensive snaps, the third-best rate in the NFL. They’re even better at home, producing explosive plays at an 11.73% clip. Explosives are a huge part of the Detroit offense
Back in Week 1, the Packers won the explosive play battle. Lions only generated two explosive plays: a 38-yard catch and run by Sam LaPorta and a 14-yard rush by Jahmyr Gibbs. Green Bay was able to hold Detroit to 3.8 yards per play, so they have the blueprint to make it happen. Eliminating those explosive plays will play a role in the Packers’ winning today.
The Final Word
The Packers have been successful playing on “Turkey Day” in recent years. Since 2001, the Packers and Lions have played seven times on Thanksgiving Day, winning five of the seven matchups. The most recent matchup between the two teams on Thanksgiving took place in 2023. Jordan Love and the Packers went to Detroit and dominated for much of the game. Love was brilliant, completing 22 of his 32 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns. Jonathan Owens even scored a touchdown after recovering a fumble and taking it to the house.
Both teams have playoff aspirations. It starts by winning the NFC North division title. Whichever team can secure the division title will get an automatic playoff bid and get to host at least one playoff game. It’s been a few years since Green Bay was able to do that. And it starts on Thanksgiving.
Green Bay has won on Thanksgiving two years in a row and has been good on the holiday over the years. Detroit has only won once on the holiday since 2016. Unfortunately, it’s been Detroit having most of the divisional success over the last several years. The Packers haven’t won a division title since 2021. Today’s matchup will go a long way in bringing that division title back to Green Bay.
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