The Badgers have a wide array of possibilities in 2025.
While there will definitely be one final, post-August camp update for this, the middle of June is a perfect time for some best guesses on how many games the Wisconsin Badgers will win this fall.
So, per usual, here are my Best Case, Worst Case, and Most Likely scenarios for that total.
Please remember that both my best and worst cases take into account realistic expectations, which is why you won’t be seeing either 11 wins or three wins in this. Being mathematically possible isn’t enough.
Best Case: 9 Wins
This one will require unusually good health, especially at key positions like quarterback, and, certainly, some luck.
Wisconsin’s new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes’s system will need to work seamlessly, and Mike Tressel’s defense must make a jump, especially with getting pressure on the quarterback.
More transfers will have to contribute meaningfully than in 2023 and 2024, and guys who are needed to step up at key positions like wide receiver and running back have to deliver.
And, yeah, a break or two will also be required. If all of these things come together perfectly, I see a nine-win season (before a bowl game) being the squad’s ceiling.
You don’t need to be a math major to know this means at least two true upsets (at Michigan, at Oregon, at Alabama, versus Ohio State, and at Indiana), along with running the table on the games against rivals (versus Illinois, versus Iowa, and at Minnesota) and not stumbling in any other game.
Is this likely? Hell no. Is it possible? Yes.
Worst Case: 4 Wins
While an argument can be made that four wins against Wisconsin’s potentially historically difficult 2025 slate would have been worth six or seven wins in, say, 2017, the simple fact is that nobody will end up caring.
This isn’t Global Physical Environments class. There’s no grading curve here. The wins will need to be there for a season to be considered successful.
In this scenario, several factors combine to cap that number at a paltry four: Grimes’s scheme has growing pains, injuries at pivotal positions hold things back, Fickell doesn’t have his veteran CB2 Nyzier Fourqurean due to the NCAA winning a court case, too many transfers are busts again, and the offensive line doesn’t overcome the loss of its talented left tackle Kevin Heywood.
The brutal slate ends up being too much for the Badgers, who limp in two victories shy of bowl eligibility. The Fire Fick bandwagon starts to overflow, and the team’s second bowl-free season in a row leads to a very tumultuous off-season in Madison.
Most Likely Case: 6 Wins
I’ve become a bit more bullish on this team since the start of spring practice, where I believed that five wins was the most likely total.
In this series of events, the Badgers hold serve against the four teams it should beat and pick up 2 wins somewhere in this gauntlet: at Alabama, at Oregon, at Michigan, at Indiana, versus Iowa, versus Illinois, and versus Ohio State.
This, of course, won’t be easy, but it seems quite fair to expect if the following occur: Grimes’s system clicks for the most part, quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. stays healthy, a reasonable number of transfers contribute, and the front seven gets better and more disruptive.
Nobody needs to be a world beater here, but order must be restored. If Wisconsin wins six games, it’s likely that it was competitive in several of its losses, which also matters as far as the overall season eye test.
No, there won’t be any State Street parades for bowl eligibility, but it will be a step toward a better future, starting with a far more manageable 2026 schedule.