The Badgers star is slated to be taken somewhere in the second round.
It may not seem like it with the NBA Finals still underway, but the 2025 NBA Draft is just over one week away, taking place on Wednesday, June 25th at the Barclays Center.
It’s been some time since the Wisconsin Badgers have seen a player drafted, with former star Johnny Davis being the last selection at No. 10 overall back in 2022.
Many Badgers aren’t in the NBA anymore, with Utah Jazz forward Micah Potter being the lone wolf playing on an active roster currently. That could be changing, however, as star guard John Tonje has positioned himself to be taken in the 2025 NBA Draft after a stellar season at Wisconsin.
Earning All-American honors, Tonje averaged 19.6 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.5 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from three on the season. It was one of the more unexpected breakouts of the 2024-25 season, with Tonje being ranked outside the top 100 transfers on many lists heading into the year.
Now, he should find himself earning an NBA contract very soon. But, where exactly will he end up in the draft?
The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie compiled his yearly draft guide, ranking the top 75 players in the draft, identifying their strengths and weaknesses. Tonje came in at No. 35 on his latest list. Here’s what Vecenie wrote about the Badgers star:
Strengths (according to Vecenie)
1. Great frame. Tonje is 6 feet 4.75 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan and an 8-foot-6.5 standing reach. He also has a powerful frame. He looks like an NFL safety with how wide he is through his chest and shoulders. Has enough size to play off the ball in the NBA, especially when accounting for his strength.
2. Plays with force. Tough player. Goes through bumps with ease. Plays a very aggressive style, and contact did not seem to phase him at the college level. Was also a regular contact initiator as a driver. Plays so physically that if he can improve his foot speed, it could translate well to when physicality picks up in the playoffs and in important regular-season games.
3. Was one of the most productive players in the country this year, averaging 19.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Being a second-team All-American is no joke, especially since he carried Wisconsin to the NCAA Tournament. Overcame adversity at a high level following his injury at Missouri to blossom into one of the best players in the country.
4. Has a case as one of the better shooters in the draft class. Doesn’t quite reach the level of guys like Kon Kneuppel or Tre Johnson, but is in the next level down. For his NBA game, everything will build off that. Hit 38.8 percent from 3 this year as the top player on the scouting report on nearly six attempts per game. Also drilled 90.9 percent from the line.
5. Good mechanics as a shooter, and the shot looks the same every time. Has great rhythm coming from his lower half as he dips the ball then brings it up through his body. Has a clean release with a high release point. Ball comes out of his hand softly. Has a very consistent trajectory on the ball. It’s an exceptionally projectable shot off the catch in spot-up situations. Drilled 42.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s this season. He only make 24 percent from beyond 25 feet this season, but he’s strong enough to where it’s easy to minimize that as a small sample-size issue.
6. Had moments hitting shots off movement, too. Loved him off dribble-handoffs this year, when he’d either drive and draw contact or flatten out and shoot. Hit 12 of his 26 3s this year off screens or dribble-handoffs.
7. Was effective as a driver this season, although I’m skeptical this will translate at a high level in the NBA. However, if a defender closed out on him heavily, he showcased an ability to attack that closeout and get into the paint. Then he’d use his frame to maintain the advantage and keep defenders on his hip. Will throw out pump fakes, hesitations and jab steps to get a defender off-balance. Once he got to the paint, he was best at driving into bigs’ chest and drawing contact. Averaged nearly seven free-throw attempts per game and converted those at a very high clip. Great at drawing contact and is strong enough to maintain his balance through bumps at the rim to get a shot off.
8. Liked him best when Wisconsin got him the ball on the move coming off dribble-handoffs or when they got him moving before he took a ball screen. Was used heavily in side ball screens this season. When that happened, he showcased strong stride length to gallop and get downhill to get to the rim or to flatten out behind the screen and shoot. Also showed some ability to re-set, bring the ball back out, take a re-screen and score a different way. Doesn’t project as a particularly strong shot creator at the NBA level for athletic reasons but displayed enough ballhandling craft to take on heavy defensive coverages without turning it over. And he can take advantage of defenders’ mistakes if they have to sell out on him as a shooter.
9. Defensively, Tonje was definitely engaged and knew the scouting report, even if I have questions on that end for the next level. The good news is that he plays hard and with toughness on that end. If he could keep his chest in front of his man, he was successful at keeping that play in front or at least angling the driver into areas where he knew that he had help.
Areas for Improvement (according to Vecenie)
1. Tonje played more as an undersized forward in college as opposed to a true wing. Big enough to make it work as a wing, especially with his strength. But definitely has the size of a two-guard as opposed to a three or a four, which is what he played in college at Wisconsin and Colorado State.
2. Not particularly athletic by NBA standards. Will be below-average for an NBA wing in multiple facets. First and foremost, doesn’t have a lot of athletic twitch. He’s a bit heavy-footed in his movements. Doesn’t have much of a first step. Has some pop vertically but really needs to load up to access it. Also isn’t all that great laterally with his first stride. I worry about him defensively in the NBA because of these factors.
3. While you love how physical Tonje is, his rugged style of game created translation questions outside of the shooting. Throughout the year, it felt like he was a 23-year-old, sixth-year senior bullying younger players. It seems unlikely he’ll draw fouls at nearly the same clip in the NBA, because he’s unlikely to create advantages initially at that same level. Not a bad ballhandler, and is extremely functional for an off-ball role. But doesn’t have enough change of pace or sudden burst to consistently get past his man without an advantage being created for him.
4. Will be swallowed up more consistently by NBA wings with longer arms and more athleticism. Even in screens, bigger, longer defenders will be able to recover back into the play against him consistently. Just about everything for him out of ball screens tended to be in a straight line going to the rim. Can be effective off the ball and use the threat of his shot to his advantage but not quite consistently enough to get away from his man without it. Struggled to separate even in college.
5. That inability to separate tends to hinder him as a passer, too. Not a selfish player but didn’t seem to force help defenders that often. Averaged only 1.8 assists per game. Posted a slightly negative assist-to-turnover ratio, with 67 assists on the year to 68 turnovers. The track record of older wings with negative assist-to-turnover ratios entering the NBA is essentially a graveyard. Since 2008, 35 senior wings have been drafted with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. Only Buddy Hield, Courtney Lee and Norman Powell broke through as rotation players for more than three years, with Ochai Agbaji potentially slated to become the fourth. The good news for Tonje is that he’s enough of a shooter to potentially break the mold. But that’s what it’ll take.
6. Didn’t love Tonje’s defense in terms of its translation to the NBA this year, but I saw some room for growth if he can add some quickness and footwork. This will undeniably be Tonje’s swing skill at the next level. Has to add some flexibility and fluidity. Felt like he struggled to keep opposing players in front of him regularly, particularly when dealing with screens. Felt like he often either got clipped on them or stuck on them in some way, shape or form. Doesn’t showcase great hip flexibility in these settings. It was also hard for him to start back up and recover into the play if he got clipped by the screen.
7. Because he’s a bit plodding for a wing, I worry about him on an island in space against some of the NBA’s shiftier guards, something he’ll likely be asked to deal with given that he projects best as a two or a three and given that most teams switch guard-to-guard actions both on and off the ball.
8. Rotationally as a team defender, Tonje faces questions at the NBA level. It felt like he’d be a step late with his reactions rotationally to get out to shooters. Also felt like he ended up in no-man’s land a bit too often in closeouts, where he’d either sell out to contest the shot or to try to stop the drive and got caught.
9. Not a defensive playmaker. Has some length but can’t get his hands into passing lanes or to get steals on digs or rip the ball from a handler. Averaged only 0.7 steals per game this year. Has never averaged more than 0.8. Also only averaged 0.2 blocks. Not much of a weak-side presence when protecting the rim despite playing the three and four in college.
Vecenie’s summary
“I genuinely disliked watching Tonje play this year at Wisconsin. It felt like everything was geared toward using the threat of his shot to parade his way to the foul line by playing a rugged brand of basketball that was simply far more physical than college players could deal with. It seemed like a style that had very little chance of working out in the NBA, even though it was immensely successful in college. But the more I thought about Tonje, the more I could see the route toward him becoming a legitimately useful NBA player.
“It revolves almost entirely around his shooting. For this to work out, Tonje is going to have to turn into a nearly elite shooter. I think he has a nonzero chance of getting there, given that he drilled 90 percent from the foul line this year and has been an 86 percent career free-throw shooter, on top of drilling 39 percent from 3 this season despite being at the top of scouting reports.
“The key for Tonje will be to maximize his speed and footwork. We know he’s comfortable enough handling the ball, and we know that he can shoot it. If he can just find a position on defense, there’s a pathway to success. I have a guaranteed-contract grade on him but ultimately couldn’t get to the first round because he’ll have to adjust stylistically and become much more based on skill than power.”
Breakdown
Ultimately, Tonje seems primed to be a second-round pick, although his range within that round seems rather fluid. A team needing a ready-now three-and-D wing could take a shot on the Badgers guard, but there are some questions on how his game will translate at the next level.
Nonetheless, it’ll be intriguing to see where Tonje lands next week, and what the fit will be like with his new team.