How many games can Wisconsin realistically win this season?
By this point in the offseason, it’s very well known that the Wisconsin Badgers have one of the toughest schedules in the country next season.
Not only will the Badgers travel to Tuscaloosa to face the Alabama Crimson Tide in a non-conference game, but Wisconsin also plays Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Illinois in 2025.
In preparation, the Badgers made some wholesale changes this offseason, hiring Jeff Grimes as their new offensive coordinator and adding 20 transfers into the program.
So, what is Wisconsin’s realistic ceiling in 2025?
First off, before evaluating the entire schedule, if the Badgers are to hit their true realistic ceiling next season, it starts with taking care of business in the rivalry games. Wisconsin will face Iowa at home, which is a must-win, especially when considering where it takes place on their schedule.
Then, Wisconsin will also need to beat Minnesota. That game will be on the road to end the season, and the Badgers have fallen short in three of the past four years.
Starting with the non-conference schedules, wins over Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee are an absolute must. That gets the Badgers up to four wins.
If we’re being realistic, it’s highly unlikely that Wisconsin will beat Alabama or Ohio State next year. Oregon is right up there, despite losing quarterback Dillon Gabriel. And Michigan’s defense should still be a force to reckon with, while their quarterback situation can’t get worse than last year.
So, those four games don’t seem like there’s a likely chance of victory. Especially when considering that Wisconsin plays Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, and Oregon in four straight weeks.
That takes us to the last third of the schedule: versus Maryland, versus Washington, at Indiana, and versus Illinois.
Of the four games, Maryland is likely the easiest opponent, and Wisconsin gets them at home. That has to be a win to achieve the team’s ceiling in 2025. Washington was 6-7 this year, but will have four-star quarterback Demond Williams Jr. at the helm now and could be on the rise.
Given that this contest takes place in Madison, the Badgers should definitely have a shot at winning here, although it could very well be a tough matchup. So, if all goes well, that could be a victory for the Badgers.
I can’t see Wisconsin beating both Indiana and Illinois. Both have strong teams, either via continuity or the transfer portal, and good quarterback situations. Fernando Mendoza is a projected first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, while Tommy Altmeyer had a breakout season last year.
They both could be in the upper third of the Big Ten this year, so I can’t realistically say the Badgers beat both opponents. But, when considering their ceiling and assuming things click as expected on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, I could see Wisconsin splitting those games.
So, when rounding up the schedule, my ceiling for this team is seven wins. On the horizon, that may seem like a rough outcome, but that’s how tough the schedule is. With the amount of movement and still quite a few questions remaining, I don’t know if 2025 is the year Wisconsin takes that huge step forward.
But, if they do reach seven wins, that should be considered a big success for the program.
What do you guys think this team’s ceiling can be? Is seven wins reaching too high? Too low? Let us know in the comments below.