2. An overall guide to your respective team’s region, round to the Final Four, adding info about the underdogs in the region, potential cinderellas to watch.
The Wisconsin Badgers drew a No. 3 seed in the East Region on Selection Sunday, pairing them with the No. 14 Montana Grizzlies in the first round in Denver.
While the circumstances behind Wisconsin’s draw weren’t ideal, the actual matchups could be beneficial for the Badgers as they look to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017.
Currently, the Badgers have the fourth-best odds at +1100 to win the East Region according to FanDuel Sportsbook, ranking behind Duke (-135), Alabama (+410), and Arizona (+850).
In addition, FanDuel is offering a Dog of the Day Jackpot:
What is it?
- Bet the lowest seeded team to advance that day and win a share of $1M in bonus bets!
Timing
- 3/20 – 3/23
- This will occur every day of the first weekend of the tournament
- Daily promotion (4x total, 1x each day – Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
- Marketing for this promotion will begin on 3/17 with first occurrence on 3/20
How to Play
- Download or Log In to FanDuel Sportsbook with new or existing account
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- Bet the lowest seeded team (higher number: 16, 15, 14, etc) to advance that day and win a share of $1M in bonus bets!
- Lowest seed = Higher number (16, 15, 14, 13, etc.)
Let’s break down the East region, identifying the Badgers’ path to the Final Four, potential underdogs in the region, and maybe even a cinderella or two to watch.
Badgers to the Final Four?
The Wisconsin Badgers will open up the NCAA Tournament against the Montana Grizzlies in the No. 3 vs. No. 14 game.
While they will be entering March Madness having played four games in four days during the Big Ten Tournament, I broke down why this matchup is arguably the best Wisconsin could’ve gotten.
There really isn’t a path to victory for the Grizzlies. They have size issues, don’t play at a fast tempo, and have one of the worst defenses in the country.
So, assuming the Badgers move on, they’ll take on a second-round matchup between the winner of the BYU Cougars and the VCU Rams. To be honest, that matchup seems like a toss-up in the first round, but BYU is currently a 2.5-point favorite.
They are two completely different teams, with BYU seeming similar to the Badgers, having a top-15 offense efficiency-wise, although their defense is worse at No. 68 in KenPom, compared to No. 27 for Wisconsin.
VCU, on the other hand, is the No. 41 offense and No. 23 defense, but neither team plays at a fast tempo and the Badgers would have the size advantage over both teams once again.
A win there could set up a potential Sweet Sixteen game with the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, who would be the worst matchup for Wisconsin, given their ability to turn up the pace and excel in transition offensively.
Nonetheless, if Wisconsin were able to get on a roll and win both of their first-weekend matchups, they would definitely have a good chance against the Crimson Tide, as long as they play their own game and don’t cater to Alabama’s pace.
If the Badgers can pull off the victory there, that would set up a potential Elite Eight matchup with the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils, with the winner heading to Arizona for the Final Four.
Of course, upsets can occur (which we’ll talk about!) but here’s what a Final Four run could look like for the Badgers.
Round of 64: No. 14 Montana
Round of 32: No. 6 BYU/No. 11 VCU
Sweet Sixteen: No. 2 Alabama
Elite Eight: No. 1 Duke
Underdogs in the East
It is March Madness. So, there’s bound to be upsets, even in a year like this one where the top seems as strong as ever.
Looking at the first round, a “toss-up” matchup is there in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game between the Baylor Bears and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Despite Mississippi State being the higher seed, Baylor is actually favored by 1.5 points ahead of the game. The rebounding battle will be crucial in that one, as both teams look to score.
Looking at the No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchup, Arizona is a 15.5-point favorite over Akron, but the Zips have a formula that usually thrives in March: running up the tempo and shooting threes. I anticipate the size for Arizona will take them to the second round, but if Akron is more efficient, an unlikely upset could be in the cards.
Going deeper into the region, a second-round matchup between No. 5 Oregon and No. 4 Arizona could be another “toss-up” if it occurs. Both teams have differing play styles, although the Wildcats have transformed into a strong offensive and defensive team.
Additionally, the No. 6 BYU upset over No. 3 Wisconsin will likely be a trendy pick in brackets. BYU and Wisconsin have elite offenses, so the Cougars could edge past the Badgers if they have a better shooting day, moving them to the Sweet Sixteen.
One last possible upset? No. 7 St. Mary’s vs. No. 2 Alabama. The Crimson Tide would be a No. 1 seed in many other years with their resume. But, the Gaels are an elite defensive team (No. 8 in KenPom) and play at one of the slowest paces in the country (359th in the country).
They also are near the top of the nation in rebounding margin and don’t have many turnovers, playing clean, sound basketball, which could catch Alabama off guard in an upset.
Cinderellas
Cinderellas are the hardest to predict, but there seems to be one or two contenders that always emerge in March. Who could that be in the East region?
No. 11 VCU
I mentioned BYU as a potential upset team in the last column. But, that could very well be VCU, who is a top-45 team offensively and defensively. The Rams are elite defensively, ranking among the top of the nation in nearly every major metric (steal rate, block rate, opponent field goal percentage).
They also shoot a lot of threes, which tends to bode well in March if they can hit their shots. VCU could very well go on a cold streak and bow out early, but their makeup could have them poised for a Sweet Sixteen run.
No. 7 St. Mary’s
I mentioned them in the previous column, but St. Mary’s could be a realistic lower seed that can make it to the Sweet Sixteen.
They match up well against Vanderbilt and could give Alabama troubles with their defense, paving the way for a potential Elite Eight matchup with No. 3 Wisconsin. They’ll need to shoot well (only 32.6 percent from three) and get strong production from star Augustus Marciulionis, but they may be the best shot of any non-top-five seed to make a run to the Elite Eight.