The Badgers have one of their biggest litmus tests of the season on Friday.
That past was prologue to things getting really real really fast for the Badgers as they host No. 11 Oregon and then travel to 14-3 Michigan and No. 10 Purdue in the span of 9 days. The run will be a challenge but also an opportunity to show the team has made real progress as a volleyball unit since dropping their conference opener at Minnesota.
“Our schedule the next few weeks is going to get a little bit tougher than what it probably has been, and the stakes climb as you move through the conference season,” Coach Kelly Sheffield said at his weekly press conference. “Certainly the level of teams that we’re going to be playing are going to be increasing pretty quickly here.”
One-third of the way into the Big Ten schedule, the top of the league appears to be stratifying into three distinct tiers.
No. 2 Nebraska and No. 3 Penn State are the current cream of the crop with 6-0 records. The No. 9 Badgers, No. 10 Purdue, and No. 11 Oregon are all a tier below at 5-1, 4-2, and 5-1, respectively, and then No. 14 Minnesota and No. 16 USC are maybe a half tier below them.
(Michigan is also a surprising 4-2, but their standing in the conference pecking order cannot be properly evaluated until they complete a run of four ranked opponents in five matches starting on Sunday with the Badgers)
Most observers expected the Big Ten to be a grind this year, but standings-changing upsets have honestly been tough to come by so far. There have been a few opportunities, but lower-seeded teams have largely failed to close the deal late in matches.
Just this weekend there were three upset teases that would have done massive work to help the Badgers.
Purdue had set point at 15-14 in the 5th set at Nebraska on Friday but surrendered the final 3 points to lose. Indiana could not convert on 5 set points in the 3rd set of a 1-1 match at Penn State on Sunday, and Washington blew a 10-5 lead in Set 5 at Oregon on Sunday.
If we are being honest, the biggest upset of the Big Ten schedule so far is Minnesota’s Week 1 win over Wisconsin.
The bad news is the Badgers cannot count on other teams to help them stay in the Big Ten title race. Not only have upsets in the league been few and far between, but the other teams in the top two tiers have much easier schedules, on paper, than the Badgers.
Penn State’s remaining opponents have a combined 41-43 conference record, and their toughest remaining matches are the November 9 trip to the Field House and home matches against Purdue and Nebraska.
Nebraska’s remaining opponents are 43-41 thus far, and they do have road matches at Wisconsin, Oregon, and the Nittany Lions left to play. Purdue and Oregon have even weaker schedules, with opponents a combined 39-45 left to go.
The good news, if there is good news from a difficult schedule, is that the Badgers control their own destiny.
The Badgers have, by far, the toughest remaining schedule of the top 5 teams. Their remaining opponents are a combined 50-34 in conference play, and they have 4 matches against teams that are currently 6-0 or 5-1. One silver lining is three of those four matches are at home.
These are each of the weeks from now until Thanksgiving:
Oregon
@ Purdue
Nebraska
Penn State
@ USC
Minnesota, @ Nebraska
The Badgers dropped to 17th in the RPI and remain at No. 9 in the AVCA rankings after the weekend, but their remaining schedule gives them every opportunity to climb nationally and closer to home in the league standings.
It’s our job to blow things out of proportion, but in my time covering the team, the players have made it very clear they come to Wisconsin to win Big Ten Championships and compete for National Championships.
The math says if they want to do the former and set themselves up for a good path to the latter, they need to go no worse than 6-1 in their remaining 7 marquee matchups (and not lose to Michigan). Friday’s match might as well be a must-win, aspirationally speaking.
No doubt for the better, the players are approaching Friday’s first step into the gauntlet with a much more well-adjusted growth mindset.
“I’m really excited,” Anna Smrek said. “They’ve been doing really well and I know from previous years and what they’re doing right now, they’re a very good defensive team, and it’s honestly just exciting to get a really good challenge in the Field House.”
Julia Orzol added, “Last time we played them here, it was one of the best games I’ve experienced in the Field House, so we’re so excited. We have a whole week of work and preparation, so I say we have stuff to get better at before Friday.”