The Golden Eagles are 80 potential minutes of basketball away from their first Final Four since 2003. Why will they do it, and what might stop them?
On Friday, Marquette men’s basketball plays their first Sweet 16 game since 2013. If we can allow ourselves the luxury of looking forward just the teeeeeeniest bit, that means Marquette is 40 minutes of basketball away from playing for the program’s first Final Four appearance since 2003 when a medium sized fella named Dwyane Wade led the squad to New Orleans.
That raises the question: What does Marquette have to do to win two more games and win the South Region? More importantly, perhaps: If they do or do not win the region, what will be the reasons why that happens?
Let’s just attack the meat of the issue first. Does Marquette even have great odds of winning the South Region and making the Final Four? Here’s what DraftKings says for each of the teams left standing in the South Region as of Tuesday morning:
Houston: -105
Marquette: +220
Duke: +380
North Carolina State: +1300
As you might have surmised, with four teams left in the field, Marquette does have the second best odds to win the region and reach the Final Four largely because they’re favored to beat NC State in a 2 seed vs 11 seed matchup. Their biggest problem, at least from the wagering odds perspective is merely that the #1 seed in the region remains alive, and on top of that Houston has been regarded as one of the three top challengers for a national championship alongside UConn and Purdue for most of the season.
Let’s get into some reasons why and why not, shall we?
REASONS WHY MARQUETTE WILL WIN THE SOUTH REGION
#1) Marquette is a good basketball team.
HA HA HA yes, I know, I’ve become the world’s most reductive idiot. But look. Marquette started out the year at #5 in the preseason Associated Press poll and they spent all but three weeks of the season in the top 10, peaking at #3. They were the preseason pick to win the Big East, and after accounting for some bad injury luck along the way and UConn somehow being more awesome than last year’s national championship team, the Golden Eagles have mostly held up their end of the bargain at being one of the top teams in the Big East and the country this season. They can win two more games, win the region, and go to the Final Four because they’ve got the pieces in place to match up with any team that steps in front of them.
#2) The burden of history has been lifted from the Golden Eagles
It seems clear from head coach Shaka Smart’s reactions and point guard Tyler Kolek’s reactions immediately in the wake of Marquette’s Round of 32 victory over Colorado that they were no longer carrying around the weight of remembering last year’s R32 loss to Michigan State. Leaving that weight behind in the past can go one of two ways: You can experience a letdown because you are no longer motivated by your past failure
OR
you can play and coach with a freedom and clarity of mind knowing that your nightmares, to use Kolek’s words, can’t bother you any more. That ability to focus on nothing but the best possible thing in front of you can be quite the performance enhancer, and that kind of thing can be the difference between going home from the tournament and advancing further.
#3) Kam Jones is ready for his moment.
A lot of attention has been paid to Tyler Kolek over the last 14 months or so, and for good reason. That’s what happens when you return to school after winning Big East Player of the Year, and that’s what happens when you duplicate Jason Kidd’s tournament statistics in your first two games played in three weeks due to injury. Same for Oso Ighodaro, who is repeatedly discussed as the best passing big man in the country and perhaps the true reason why the Marquette offense works the way that it does.
You know what doesn’t get talked about? How freaking awesome Kam Jones is. The leading scorer on a top 10 team didn’t even get an Honorable Mention nod from his own conference’s coaches for all-league honors at the end of the regular season! What are we talking about here?
Kam Jones since Tyler Kolek’s oblique injury: 21.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.3 steals, shooting splits of 52% overall, 58% inside the arc, and 46% from behind the three-point line.
Kam Jones so far in the NCAA tournament: 23.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 59% from the field, 45% from long range, and — I swear to you this is not a joke — 89% inside the arc.
HE’S EIGHT FOR NINE INSIDE THE ARC, GUYS.
Yeah, the rebounding and passing is down, and so are the steals…. but also Tyler Kolek’s back in the lineup and that means Kam Jones, Gary Parrish’s little homie from Memphis, has more freedom to focus on Kam Jones Time.
REASONS WHY MARQUETTE WILL NOT WIN THE SOUTH REGION
#1) Jim Valvano’s ghost is very mean.
It would be slightly silly to not look at this NC State team across the court from Marquette on Friday night and not see the spectre of the 1983 NC State team. That Wolfpack team had to beat two top five ranked teams in the ACC tournament just to get into the NCAA tournament in the first place, and then they knocked off three top 10 ranked teams on their six game journey to the NCAA championship.
This year’s NC State team won five ACC tournament games in five days to earn the conference’s automatic bid to the field, knocking off two top 11 ranked teams along the way. Then they beat a ranked Texas Tech team in the first round before facing #8 Marquette on Friday. Waiting for them on the other side would be either #2 Houston or #13 Duke. Past that, there’s only one possibility of an unranked team as an opponent, and that wouldn’t happen unless Clemson gets to the national championship game as well.
There’s echoes of history here, and if you’re at least a little stitious, that has to be slightly concerning for Marquette’s chances.
#2) Uh, Houston’s really good
There is no analytical system on the face of the planet that is going to tell you that Marquette is going to be favored to beat Houston. KenPom.com’s ranking system, for example, is designed to tell you who would be favored on a neutral court by way of measuring offensive and defensive efficiency. Houston is #2 overall and #2 on defense as of Tuesday morning. Their offense? No joke, ranking #14. The Cougars are great, full stop, and they’re the favorite in the Region and the #1 seed here for a reason.
Marquette’s three rankings in comparison? #13 overall, #21 on defense, #19 on offense. That’s good! It’s really good! It’s not legitimately great like Houston. If Marquette can get past NC State, they are likely to face Houston in the Elite Eight — I didn’t forget about you, Duke, you’re just not favored against the Cougars — and solving that riddle is a tall task.
#3) This is the NCAA tournament, after all.
Why is the men’s NCAA basketball tournament the greatest sporting event that this country holds on a yearly basis? Because sometimes Things Happen. Sometimes #14 seeded Oakland beats a Kentucky team full of guys who are going to be cashing NBA paychecks in eight months. Sometimes Houston needs a free throw from a walk on who has played 57 total minutes this season to beat Texas A&M in overtime. Sometimes #12 seed James Madison never trails and leads 33-16 while beating #5 Wisconsin.
All of these things happened this season in the tournament, and not just this season, they all happened in the South Region alone.
Things happen in this tournament. Marquette might be immaculately prepared to play two games this weekend. They might do everything right and make no mistakes for however many games they end up playing. The Tournament Gods might have other things in mind, and sometimes, that’s just how this goes.