Let’s break down the numbers as to what the algorithm is telling us, shall we?
A belated Happy KenPom.com Release Day to all that celebrate. Seems like the rankings went live on Ken Pomeroy’s website late on Sunday night after I went to sleep. And so, we peek in on Monday night to see what the most widely used and regarded computer algorithm has to say about YOUR Marquette Golden Eagles men’s basketball team heading into the 2024-25 season.
Y’all, we’re just going to have to accept that the departures of Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro have diminished the Golden Eagles. After starting last season at #11 and finishing at #13, Marquette will have to start off this coming season at the much lower and much less acclaimed #22 spot in the KP rankings.
Oh no, whatever shall we do, wherever shall we go, etc.
The algorithm says that MU’s offense is expected to be worse than last season in terms of efficiency….. but the preseason projection of #21 in the country remains the same as the actual full season of data ranking that MU had at the end of last season. Intriguing! The computer also says that the defense is expected to allow fewer points per 100 possessions…. But the ranking slips from #17 to #27. This is an “Oso Ighodaro was an underrated defensive presence” thing, isn’t it?
Let’s move along to comparing Marquette to their Big East brethren:
Connecticut: #5
Creighton: #12
St. John’s: #19
Villanova: #20
Marquette: #22
Xavier: #30
Providence: #60
Butler: #83
Georgetown: #88
Seton Hall: #91
DePaul: #166
If we use “top 50 in KenPom = NCAA tournament contender” as a guideline, then the Big East has six tourney contenders for this coming season. All six are in the top 30 of the rankings to start the season, and then there’s a HUGE drop off to Providence at #60. That’s obviously not far enough outside the top 50 to officially dismiss the Friars as a contender out of hand before they tip off the season against Central Connecticut, but it is important to notice this just seven months after head coach Kim English had a meltdown about being left out of last year’s field.
We should also note the huge jump up for Georgetown after the Hoyas were at #192 to end last season. I don’t believe in that roster being successful this season, but finishing top 100 would definitely be welcome. DePaul also made a massive jump up, and we can say that with the Blue Demons at #166. They were a sub-300 team last year, and “Not A Buy Game Caliber Opponent” would be a big deal for Chris Holtmann’s first season in charge.
In terms of big questions to be answered as the season goes along, I’d like to point you at Seton Hall and Villanova. I don’t think Kyle Neptune has done anything to warrant this ranking, especially not with a roster overhaul, but the algorithmic prediction is what it is. VU was #23 to start last season, but losses to Penn, Saint Joseph’s and Drexel pretty much ruined the Wildcats’ postseason hopes before they had even played 10 games. As for Seton Hall, well, going from “winning the NIT” to “barely being a top 100 team” isn’t good, so keep an eye on that as they refuse to play a top 150 team in their first four games.
Game projections time!
The KenPom computer projects Marquette to finish the regular season with a record of 20-11 overall, with a 12-8 mark in Big East play. That’s a full representation of the season, as MU is not playing in a “we don’t know who the next opponent is” non-conference event this year. While MU is the fifth best Big East team in the rankings, we do have to note that they’re projected to finish in a three-way tie for third place with St. John’s and Villanova. That’s two games behind 14-6 Creighton and one game ahead of 11-9 Xavier. Narrow margins amongst a bunch of top 30 teams, as you would expect.
But that’s the projection for the full 31 game season. That’s the computer saying “yeah, you’ll win some you’re projected to lose and you’ll lose some that you’re projected to win.” Going game by game, the algorithm has the Golden Eagles going 22-9 with a 14-6 record in the Big East. That’s pretty good, and 20-11 was pretty good to start with!
Anything that’s between 45% and 55% is a coin flip game according to the KP computer, with a one point margin between the two teams in the expected score. Marquette has two losses in that window: at #37 Maryland and at home against #5 UConn. There are three wins in there as well: at home against #10 Purdue, at #60 Providence, and at home against #12 Creighton. That does mean that Marquette could easily go 24-7 and 15-5 in the Big East if they come out on the right side of a few coin flips …… but also just as easily go 19-12 and 12-8 if they don’t.
But hey: 12-8 in the league was what the overall algorithm said was the case anyway, right?
Got questions? Got thoughts? Got complaints? Got jokes? That’s what the comment section is for!