A number of league insiders who spoke to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps about what will happen in the NBA in 2026 believe that this will be the year the Giannis Antetokounmpo saga in Milwaukee reaches an inflection point, according to Bontemps.
“The rubber is going to finally hit the road, one way or the other,” one Western Conference executive said.
However, several of those sources believe the situation will carry over into the offseason, with one Eastern Conference scout suggesting that the Bucks star would have “maximum leverage” if he waits until the summer to request a trade.
“They aren’t trading him in-season,” a Western scout predicted.
In fact, many of the executives surveyed by Bontemps are anticipating a relatively quiet trade deadline, with resolutions on players like Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Zach LaVine, and Trae Young potentially not coming until June or July (or later). One Eastern Conference exec suggested that a “crazy summer” could be on tap if February’s deadline ends up being somewhat uneventful.
“All these guys are going to be stuck where they are (at the trade deadline),” another Western Conference exec said. “I don’t think it will be as busy as people think, and I don’t think the available players will be that good.”
Here’s more from Windhorst and Bontemps:
- According to Windhorst, league executives believe there will be three paths available to LeBron James after this season: Re-sign with the Lakers at a reduced salary, join another team in free agency, or retire. In other words, they don’t expect Los Angeles to continue paying the four-time MVP maximum or near-max money. While James is no longer performing at his peak level, he would continue to be a coveted player if he decides not to retire, one head coach said: “LeBron is still averaging 20 points and shooting 50%. You just have to find the right situation.”
- The NBA is reportedly weighing rule changes to further disincentivize tanking, and ESPN’s sources expect the outcry for changes to grow as the season progresses, Windhorst writes. “This is only going to get louder,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “By the spring, I think one out of every three games we’re going to play is going to be against a team that’s tanking.”
- While commissioner Adam Silver has said the NBA will make a decision on expansion in 2026, stakeholders who have been working with the league on possible domestic expansion and a new European league are skeptical that the NBA would be able to move forward on both endeavors simultaneously, says Windhorst. The NBA reportedly hopes to launch its European league in the fall of 2027, so perhaps the NBA would aim to expand a year or two after that.