Unpacking the considerable upside behind the Turner signing not being discussed
Milwaukee’s decision to sign Myles Turner to a four-year, $107m deal—orchestrating the biggest waive-and-stretch of a contract in NBA history to do so—has sparked a firestorm of negativity towards the Bucks and GM Jon Horst. And while I think the move is risky on some level, I don’t believe it carries this extreme downside. In fact, I think there’s substantial upside to the deal. Let’s discuss.
The most prominent criticism pundits seem to have with the signing is that even with Turner, this Bucks team is likely not good enough to contend for a championship. For the upcoming season, that’s probably true! But with Kyle Kuzma’s $20m+ annually contract expiring next year, that provides a good starting base for the team to trade for a guard who can elevate them to that level next offseason, when the Bucks can trade from the three first-round picks at their disposal. Giannis is 30 and Turner is 29; that gives you at least five years to give this thing another go. Of course, that proposition assumes Antetokounmpo extends his contract once more. But what does a deal like this do? It signals to Giannis that the front office remains hyper-focused on winning, which is what Antetokounmpo has continuously requested before signing extensions with the franchise.
So why do this deal now? Well, team building doesn’t occur in a vacuum. Damian Lillard happened to tear his Achilles at an inopportune time, Brook Lopez happened to exit via free agency and leave the team without a starting-calibre centre, Myles Turner happened to be a free agent this offseason, and the Pacers (although they have an excellent front office!) happen to have cheap ownership. All those dominoes aligned too perfectly for the Bucks not to pursue the talented big man. Indeed, having to sacrifice $22.5m in dead salary over the next five seasons to do this deal creates a fly in the ointment as it pertains to team building; I’m not discounting that. However, I think there’s a greater downside to trying to shoehorn Bobby Portis into a starting centre role for the foreseeable future without the Bucks having the fallback of owning their first-round picks if things go badly. Horst acquired a known commodity and improved the team for next season while retaining assets that can be used for a finishing piece this time next year.
The other reason the deal was a shot Horst simply had to take is that Giannis, for all his extraordinary talent, is not easy to build around because you generally need shooting centres alongside him. Guess what? There aren’t many shooting centres! Moreover, four (?) centres in the entire NBA can stretch the floor at volume on one end and be a legitimate rim protector on the other—Turner is one of them. Brook Lopez filled that archetype for the bulk of his time in the Cream City, a stupendously good fit with Antetokounmpo. And yes, I get that Myles Turner is not perfect—he can get played off the floor at the end of games—but the guy is unquestionably more productive than Lopez was at the point he came to Milwaukee. Last season, the former Texas Longhorn averaged 15.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG, and 1.5 APG on 48.1% from the field and 39.6% from three on a career-high 5.5 (!) attempts per game.
And hey, if worst comes to worst and Giannis asks out next offseason, there still isn’t much downside to this deal. Milwaukee will likely give up a later draft pick next year to another team than they would have without Turner, Antetokounmpo will still fetch a king’s ransom, plus Turner’s deal is very tradeable and will also return a decent haul! In all likelihood, the team will, at worst, be in a similar position to what it would have been if this transaction had not occurred. The only difference is that a team with no desire or ability to compete would have a chunk of dead cap space every season instead of a big expiring contract that could be used to take on bad contracts alongside some second-round picks (much like what Milwaukee gave up to unload Pat Connaughton). Boo freaking hoo! Horst gave the franchise its best shot at contending, and because of that, he must sacrifice the opportunity to acquire some seconds when and if this era concludes. How will fans ever forgive him!?
I suppose my only request for the front office going forward is that they be as sure as possible that if they do go “all in” one more time, they get the right guy. Spoiler alert, I’m currently writing an article about weak link theory (which I’ll explain in the story). In part of that article, I break down why I believe that trading for Dame—to say nothing of his courageous contribution to the franchise—was the wrong move for the Bucks. Using statistics to bolster my argument, I contend that even if there were no injuries, the move to acquire Lillard likely wasn’t going to make Milwaukee a contender again. By adding Turner and waiving Dame, the team now has a chance to return to its roots in defensive dominance. From that defensive foundation, they build the offence. Under no circumstances, however, should the team sacrifice its bread and butter in an attempt to improve on the other end.
And if (if, if, if) the front office targets a player to trade more future picks for, that player should be relatively young, first and foremost, but also a bona fide two-way player that they are sure beyond any reasonable doubt will give them a real shot at contending. That’s the bar; a very high bar, admittedly! But there is no point settling for anything less. If that player doesn’t arise? Well, what happens from there is primarily up to Giannis, I suppose. His actions will dictate what Horst does from that point forward. But pulling a trigger on a less-than-ideal fit and parting ways with more picks could augur a ghastly future in Milwaukee—and that would rightfully warrant criticism from the national media. Regardless, this move to get Turner and reset the timeline of a key positional pillar around Antetokounmpo was the first step in getting back to the promised land. Let’s hope they get the following steps right.