The Golden State Warriors are strangely quiet. We are now in Day 4 of free agency, and the Warriors haven’t signed or traded for a single playere. Their own players have moved away, with Kevon Looney joining the New Orleans Pelicans. Unlike last year, there are almost no rumors about the Warriors targeting anyone. Could they be working in a stealth mode?
Warriors’ Offseason Gamble: All-In for a Superstar Trade?
When last offseason started, the Warriors were hunting a big fish, an All-Star type of player. They tried trading for Paul George and failed. Then they tried for Lauri Markkanen and failed. And then they pivoted to increasing their rotation, with a historic six-team trade that saw Klay Thompson end up in Dallas. As a result, the Warriors got Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson.
This time around, it seems like the Warriors are determined to get their star. The only question is, who will that be? Could they be hoping that LeBron James thinks the Lakers are trying to compete with Luka Doncic down the road and not sacrificing the present? Or they secretly hope that Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be satisfied with the moves the Milwaukee Bucks made and he will ask for a trade? They can always revisit the talks with the Utah Jazz involving Markkanen, who would be a perfect fit next to Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. There are reports that the Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns will include more teams in the Kevin Durant trade, and the Warriors can get into it.
It All Comes Down to Kuminga
The Warriors have one big trade chip, and they have to use it smartly. Jonathan Kuminga is their best trade asset. He is a young player with potential who can sign a lower-than-max contract and develop in an environment away from Steph.
Before free agency began, the Warriors extended a qualifying offer to Kuminga. Should he decline it, he will become a restricted free agent this summer, and an unrestricted one next summer. Should he sign the offer, he cannot be traded for the next year.
This cat-and-mouse game might linger for a while, but it seems like the Warriors are determined to hit on their trade target. Kuminga is the only path to getting more rotational players that fit their system without sacrificing their depth.
Right now, Kuminga can earn earn around $8 million next season. But in a sign-and-trade scenario, they can re-sign him to something around $20-25 million per season. Add in Mooses Moody and Hield, and they have around $45 million in tradable salary.
The Two-Year Window
The Golden State Warriors are at a point where they don’t have to play for the future and the present. In 2020, they drafted James Wiseman at No.2, hoping he would lead the franchise after Curry. But, they have since traded him. In 2021, they drafted Kuminga at No. 7 as a young building block. All points to him leaving the team this summer.
There are only two players who are worth sacrificing future assets for. Those are LeBron and Giannis. The Greek Freak is a dream scenario, but it is a far-fetched one. Pairing LeBron and Curry is something that would be a must-see TV. Golden State tried to trade for James last season, but they were rejected. Things might be different this time around. Because they are under the first apron, the Warriors can take back more salary than they send. That makes a package around Kuminga work in theory.
It is possible the Warriors can have Draymond Green, Jimmy, Steph, and LeBron. Depth will be a challenge, but a two-year window with that core has a good chance of competing for a title. Except for LeBron, they are all under contract through the 2026-27 season. With each passing day and the Warriors not making a move, it seems more and more likely that they are waiting for a superstar trade. They cannot pivot toward depth right now, as almost all quality role players have already signed with other teams.
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