It’s that time of year!
Welcome back to yet another year of the Brew Hoop Round Table, where we ask that everybody use coasters and please don’t feed the aging pugs from the table, thanks. Ah, the playoffs. The most fun, yet stressful time of year for NBA fans across the world. For the Milwaukee Bucks, this rollercoaster of a wild season is taking one of its final helixes into the station. As for where that station exactly is, though, remains unknown. With that being said, let’s not waste any more time and get right into the questions!
What’s your Round One prediction against the Indiana Pacers?
Gabe: Despite Giannis’ status being up in the air, the Bucks are still the more talented team. The Pacers have an exciting core that’s led by Haliburton and Siakam, but I trust the Bucks more — even without Antetokounmpo. We’ve all seen how the playoffs welcome new teams. Bucks fans know it well also. There will be bumps in the road. You already know that TJ McConnell is going to continue to be a thorn in the Bucks’ side. However, given Milwaukee’s overall playoff experience and veteran presence, they should prevail. I anticipate them dropping a few games, but anticipate them moving on in six.
Van: Bucks in seven, as long as Giannis returns on the early end of the 2–4 week timetable we’ve heard about his calf injury, and I still think he will. Here’s my rationale: though the Pacers are obviously the quicker and younger team, I am unconvinced their style translates well to postseason play. Indiana was second league-wide in pace (Milwaukee finished seventh) but last season, the pace slowed by a full three points per 100 possessions from regular to postseason. That gulf is on par with what we’ve seen in each of the last five years. I wrote yesterday about how Indy relies more than most teams on transition opportunities; a potential reduction there is something on the margins that I think helps Milwaukee in a series where small details could swing it either way. Aside from Siakam and Myles Turner, their core is pretty untested in the playoffs too.
Morgan: Gulp. I have Bucks tunnel vision, so I’ve been drinking the Bad Vibes Kool-Aid with very little understanding of whatever Indiana went through to do even worse than us. Still, I do not have confidence that the Bucks can win four games in seven right now, especially without Giannis, and especially against the plucky Pacers. Painfully, Pacers in six.
Kyle: Bucks in seven. I think Milwaukee will have a game or two where they get ran out of the gym. But with the games slowing down in the postseason matching the team, it will allow them to let Dame and Khris dictate the tempo better. Surprisingly, I think Indiana will be a little over-confident after beating Milwaukee four out of five times this season, but we have to remember all those games were when Adrian Griffin was head coach.
Jackson: It’s tough to say with the Giannis injury news floating about. I think the Bucks have enough talent to stay afloat against the Pacers. Even with Damian Lillard having a down season by his standards, the duo of Dame and Khris Middleton should be enough to carry the load offensively. The main concern is what has been a leaky defensive unit in the paint will get substantially worse with either Jae Crowder or Bobby Portis taking Giannis’ place. When I boil it down, I’ll say Bucks in six.
Riley: Bucks in seven games. Through the power of friendship and competent fast-break defense, I believe in the ability of Doc Rivers & Co. to stop the defensive bleeding long enough to make each game a slugfest. When things turn ugly you want the best individual offensive player on your team. In spite of his struggles this season, I’m backing Damian Lillard to be that guy in his first step on a postseason-long redemption arc.
Which Bucks player has the most to prove this postseason?
Gabe: I think it’s Damian Lillard. He didn’t have the regular season that fans had hoped for, but ultimately, what matters is how he performs in the postseason. His first year in Milwaukee won’t be able to be finally graded until the playoffs wrap up. Given the fact that Giannis’ injury status looms over the Bucks, it’s more imperative than ever that Dame Time strikes multiple times throughout this series. Milwaukee is going to need his scoring and aggressiveness to be dialed up to a high level in order to establish and maintain momentum. If he’s able to do so, the Bucks will be sitting pretty well.
Van: I have to go with Dame too. He can win over some of the haters among the fanbase if he carries Milwaukee through the first round sans Giannis, and probably win over most all of them if he produces at a high level (even if it’s not 2014–19 Portland caliber) for a longer playoff run. Honorable mentions go to Bobby Portis, who seems to have one postseason series annually where he plays himself out of the rotation, and Jae Crowder, who became unplayable pretty quickly last spring. With Giannis missing time, the Bucks can’t afford ineffective play from either, since they’re the only viable frontcourt options beyond Middleton and Lopez.
Morgan: I’ll take the baton and shine a spotlight on Khris and Brook. Both have question marks: health (Khris), fit (Brook), and age (yes). This postseason represents an opportunity for them to affirm their rightful place in the Big Four. Otherwise, their contracts notwithstanding, Horst may show them the door.
Kyle: I’ll zag compared to the others and say Bobby Portis. With Giannis out for some time, Bobby will be asked to start and contribute. Portis sometimes calls his own number too often, and his defense leaves much to be desired. But Bobby getting hot can get the crowd going quickly, which can be needed for the first two games (ie. Bucks vs. Hawks Game 5 of the 2021 ECF). A good series will potentially be what the Bucks need. A bad series will likely lead to an awkward breakup.
Jackson: I go back and zig to Kyle’s zag and go with Jae Crowder. While he doesn’t have the lofty expectations of Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, or heck, even Bobby Portis, I still think Jae still has something to prove. Crowder played in just three games of the Bucks first-round series against the Heat last year for a grand total of 40 minutes. In that span, he scored just seven points and was a minus fifteen. Crowder was held out of the last two games of the series with a coach’s DNP as the Bucks lost in five games. He has to prove that he can be a valuable role player for a contending team in the playoffs, especially with him on a vet minimum deal with Milwaukee. With Giannis potentially out for a while this playoffs, Crowder will need to step up big time.
Riley: Khris Middleton. He’s the continuity guy who bridges the pre- and post-Dame trade phases of the team while having spent far more time with these teammates in playoff scenarios where he was asked to take on a greater role. Ergo, he will be expected to be the steadiest of hands at the wheel. Fair or not, Middleton has to stay above consistent miscues for Milwaukee to have a chance.
What’s your biggest worry as we head into the postseason?
Gabe: I’ll take the easy answer and say Giannis’ health. We know the type of player Giannis is. We know he’s going to do anything to be out there. However, if he continues to not be able to suit up, there’s not a lot of room for error for the Bucks. If Indiana steals a game or two in Milwaukee similar to Miami last season, it’s going to be a strenuous uphill climb for the Bucks. Giannis’ injury forces the spotlight on other key players on the team. Should they not be able to produce, a quick exit may loom for Milwaukee.
Van: It’s Giannis’ health for sure, but if that indeed (*crosses fingers*) is a shorter-term concern, I think the longer-term one is backcourt defense. Offense and shot creation have been major issues in Milwaukee’s recent postseason runs, but I’m less concerned about that now with Lillard around. Patrick Beverley seems likely to remain in the starting lineup, and the way the bracket seems likely to break, he could have some other big-time guards to deal with like Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey should the Bucks advance past Haliburton’s Pacers, then potentially some bigger Celtics wings beyond that.
Morgan: Embarrassment. With the recent addition of Dame and the even more recent addition of Doc, this team is more fragile than it has been in recent years. Don’t believe the vultures—Giannis is here forever. But Dame? Who wanted HeAt CuLtUrE? I’m worried that an embarrassing series a la last year could send Dame screaming to the exit, leaving the Bucks down a star, likely with little return, and perhaps muddying the waters for future stars to pack their bags to join Giannis in Cream City.
Kyle: I don’t really have a good answer for how Milwaukee’s offense digs its way out of trouble if it struggles. The Bucks have plenty of players who mainly serve to take spot-up threes and not much else. Dame can create offense, Khris has an iso game that works, Brook can realize he is larger than everyone and work the post down low, but that is really it. If Dame and/or Khris go through a slump, what is Milwaukee going to do about countering that?
Jackson: The health of the team as a whole as Riley say below. With this team dealing with so many injuries to basically every player on the roster (minus Brook, Bobby, and Malik Beasley) coming into the playoffs, it’s very worrisome. I’m not sure the oldest roster in the league will be able to last during a long playoff run with the injury history for this entire roster. It feels like fine china on the edge of a table; it’s very beautiful and can work exceptionally well. However, if one thing goes wrong, or there’s an unlucky step, that china falls to the ground and shatters the Bucks’ title chances into a million pieces.
Riley: They’re… kind of old? And what with the way time works, they get older by the day. While the playoffs are slower, I tend to worry about what a long series could mean for the entire team’s durability. When you’re in your mid-to-late 20s, your body can withstand the punishment of physically demanding playoff basketball and be back for more a few days later. You don’t bounce back from the bruises, aches, and fatigue as quickly midway through your fourth decade on Earth. Attrition, attrition, attrition.
If the Bucks win it all, what has to happen?
Gabe: I’m going to say Damian Lillard again. Regardless of if Giannis is available or not, Milwaukee needs Dame to boast a heavy scoring presence in order to go all the way. He’s been shaky from the perimeter during the regular season, but the playoffs are different. If he’s able to find a rhythm and establish a steady dose of scoring paired with aggressiveness, things will likely bode well for Milwaukee. We all know how the refs have changed up their calls throughout the second half of the regular season in favor of letting players play. Regardless, an aggressive Dame is what the Bucks need to help create a source of momentum and take the load off Giannis’ back. If Dame cooks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a deep run for the Bucks.
Van: Their core four needs to continue playing excellent defense when on the court together. Whoever started next to them, there is no better four-man grouping in terms of net rating than Giannis, Dame, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez among quartets who played over 400 minutes (they played 677). Their defensive rating was an outstanding 106.9 and you’d think that would only improve if PatBev is next to them. If you’re curious, replace Giannis with Portis in that four-man lineup and you have a -16.8 net (91.8 ORtg, 108.6 DRtg) rating in 80 minutes. That leads me to what I also thought for this question: they need to share the ball in the halfcourt. Those four had a measly assist rate of 13.2% and barely broke even with a 1.23 assist-to-turnover ratio. Portis’ predilection for ball-stopping—though he’s been scoring effectively lately—could hurt this team in ways we’ve seen the past couple of weeks, where they’ve struggled to generate quality looks or settled for bad jumpers.
Morgan: The playoffs are not won by the perfect team; they are won by the best team. The Bucks certainly aren’t the former, but they could be the latter. If most of the guys on the roster play up to their potential on any given night—and actually, you know, try—they could definitely limp their way to the finish line.
Kyle: Four competent quarters; don’t have a quarter where you allow 35+ points or score less than 20.
Jackson: As I wrote in my article on Wednesday, the Bucks need to bring their A+ effort every single night with the normal swagger that they have displayed in spurts this season. If they can do that for at least sixteen games, then they can get that elusive second title in four seasons.
Riley: This calf situation of Giannis’ is the last major health crisis the team has to deal with. The hallmark of this season has been unavailability; the massive fluctuations in results from game to game were wholly unsurprising in this light. You need your top two ready to play 37–40 minutes at the drop of a hat and vintage one-off nights from the likes of Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis. In the words of the truly inimitable Stephen Jackson, “there’s no time for being babies or being scared. If you’re scared, go to church.”
How far do you think the Bucks advance this postseason?
Gabe: I think the ceiling is an Eastern Conference Finals run. I think the Bucks will be able to knock off Indiana in the first round. Should they face New York in the second round, I think they’ll be able to get the job done against them as well. Ultimately, I see the Celtics representing the East in the Finals, so I’ll say elimination in the ECF for Milwaukee. Overall, I don’t see any East team defeating a Western Conference team. However, I will say this. The playoffs are quite different than the regular season. Every possession is slowed down. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bucks go all the way. Why? Because this universe is crazy and just imagine Doc Rivers shutting up his haters and winning the title with Milwaukee. Do I think that’s what’s actually going to happen? No, but I do think there’s a path for it to happen.
Van: I think the ceiling is very much a Finals win, but I’d say the floor is as low as losing this first-round series in five games. Losing to the Celtics in the East Finals is the midpoint of those two. I’ll go with that, both due to that slapdash math plus because I agree with Gabe about their chances against the Knicks. Or should both teams advance and the Bucks’ big three are all playing typical playoff minutes, I do have some faith they could take a healthy Sixers squad (that’s also an if). That all being said, Milwaukee played Boston very well this regular season, and I think that would be a long series if both teams make it (it’s entirely possible Boston doesn’t make it either: they’re the only team in the East who hasn’t been bitten by the injury bug). Depending on how things are going, I might even pick the Bucks in that one, but I’m not getting ahead of myself, and neither should the Bucks.
Morgan: I’ll stick to my prediction from the first question, with the addendum that, were both teams to advance that far, Playoff Jrue would benefit us this year.
Kyle: Could win the whole thing, could crash out ugly. I still have a dumb amount of confidence in this team, so let’s say a Finals loss to the Nuggets.
Jackson: I’ll go with an Eastern Conference Finals berth as well. Despite tough matchups against the Pacers and potentially the Knicks or 76ers in the second round, I still think that this team has enough to make a deep run.
Riley: I’ve already witnessed this team rise above its own particular brand of mediocrity on one miracle title run. Why shouldn’t I be so lucky to see it happen twice? In 2021, the rest of the roster had to rally and carry the team to the Finals sans Giannis. They may have to do that again now against the Pacers, but if you can buy the heartbeat of your team some time, the sky really is the limit. I believe in them. Let’s kick some ass.
As always, we welcome your answers to these questions as well. Please feel more than welcome to leave your thoughts in the comments section. It’s been one heck of a year this season for the Bucks, so who knows where this postseason ride is going to end up?